Match stats

Logo São Paulo Logo Atlético Nacional
54 Ball possession (%) 46
19 Goal attempts 10
7 Shots on Goal 4
8 Shots off Goal 3
4 Blocked shots 3

São Paulo vs Atlético Nacional: prediction & betting odds 20 August 2025

The second leg of the 2025 Copa Libertadores Round of 16 between São Paulo (Brazil) and Atlético Nacional (Colombia) will take place on August 13 at the Morumbi Stadium. The first match ended in a 0-0 draw. São Paulo vs. Atlético Nacional: prediction, betting odds, statistics.

São Paulo

Hernán Crespo's team had a tough first match in Colombia, being outplayed in nearly all aspects of the game, but not on the scoreboard – ending in a draw (0-0). Now the team needs to win at home in regular time to advance to the quarter-finals. Interestingly, the Brazilians have not lost in 90 minutes in the Copa Libertadores for 16 matches, securing 9 wins and 7 draws. Furthermore, the club has kept a clean sheet in 9 of their last 13 matches in this tournament.

  • No more than two goals were scored in regular time in 11 of São Paulo's last 13 Copa Libertadores matches.
  • The team is on an 11-match unbeaten run in regular time at home in this tournament (5 wins and 6 draws).
  • The Brazilians have scored in regular time in their last 6 home matches in the Copa Libertadores.

Predicted lineup for São Paulo (3-5-2)

Enrique Rafael – Nahuel Ferraresi, Sabino, Alan Javier Franco – Damian Bobadilla, Alisson Castro, Cedric Soares, Marcos Antonio, Enzo Hernan Diaz – Andre Oliveira Silva, Luciano.

Midfielders Oscar and Luis Gustavo, defenders Robert Arboleda and Wendell, as well as forwards Ryan Francisco and Jonathan Calleri, are unavailable due to injuries.

Atlético Nacional

Javier Gandolfi's team settled for a goalless draw in the first leg. Despite taking 20 shots on goal and having an xG of 2.5 to 0.23, they failed to capitalize on their chances. Now the Colombians face a tough challenge – to win in regular time on their opponent's turf. If the result is a draw again, a penalty shootout will be held.

  • There was no draw in regular time in 13 of Atlético Nacional's last 14 Copa Libertadores matches (5 wins and 8 losses).
  • At least one team failed to score in regular time in 9 of the Colombians' last 10 matches in this tournament.
  • The club is on a 6-match losing streak in regular time away in the Copa Libertadores.

Predicted lineup for Atlético Nacional (4-2-3-1)

David Ospina – Andres Roman, Camilo Candido, Juan Jose Arias, William Tesillo – Jorman Campuzano, Juan Zapata Sumake – Marino Inestrosa, Edwin Cardona, Marlos Moreno – Alfredo Morelos.

Forwards Facundo Batista, Juan Rosa, and Dayron Asprilla are sidelined due to injuries.

Referee

Maximiliano Ramirez (Argentina)

Matches – 9 (International matches, 2024–2025);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 39;

Average yellow cards per match – 4.3;

Red cards shown – 0;

Average fouls per match – 20;

Penalties – 11%.

Match Prediction: São Paulo vs. Atlético Nacional

The Colombians had a great chance to defeat their opponents at home, showing more attacking prowess and dominance. However, out of 20 shots, Atlético Nacional only managed one on target. With such low efficiency, Javier Gandolfi's team will find it incredibly difficult in Brazil. Additionally, the club has performed poorly away in the Copa Libertadores, losing their last 6 matches and failing to score.

The Brazilians achieved their goal – a draw without conceding. I am confident that with their experience, they will overcome their opponents at home, needing just 1 or 2 successful shots on target. São Paulo often wins in this tournament by focusing on not conceding. Notably, the last time the Brazilians lost at home in the Copa Libertadores was over 4 years ago.

My prediction – São Paulo Win

Betting tips 20 August 2025

With new head coach Hernán Crespo at the helm, São Paulo are ticking along nicely — averaging 1.91 points across his first 11 games. The first leg of this round of 16 tie finished goalless, but the Brazilians came away from Medellín with plenty of luck on their side.

The visitors were second best in Colombia and could easily have been punished. Atlético Nacional squandered 2.50 xG, hit the woodwork twice, and missed a penalty — with keeper Rafael Monteiro saving another to keep São Paulo alive. The team, by contrast, managed just five attempts, none on target, and only 0.23 xG. At least at home the numbers look brighter: six wins from their last eight at Morumbi, scoring two or more goals in each of those victories.

The Colombians may regret their wastefulness. Their away record in the Libertadores is dismal — six straight defeats without scoring a single goal. In fact, three of those losses came by a 1:0 scoreline, showing how little resistance they’ve offered on the road. If that pattern repeats, even a modest performance from São Paulo could be enough.

São Paulo are not flawless at Morumbi, but they rarely fail to get the job done. Given Nacional’s away struggles, the hosts should have enough quality to progress.

Betting prediction
São Paulo to win
Cf
Odds
83/100
Bet now

São Paulo vs Atlético Nacional Odds

Copa Libertadores: previous matches in the tournament

São Paulo
13.08.25
Atlético Nacional
São Paulo
D
27.05.25
São Paulo
Talleres de Córdoba
W
15.05.25
São Paulo
Libertad
D
06.05.25
Alianza Lima
São Paulo
W
24.04.25
Libertad
São Paulo
W
11.04.25
São Paulo
Alianza Lima
D
03.04.25
Talleres de Córdoba
São Paulo
W
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Atlético Nacional
13.08.25
Atlético Nacional
São Paulo
D
28.05.25
Nacional Montevideo
Atlético Nacional
L
14.05.25
Atlético Nacional
Bahia
W
09.05.25
Atlético Nacional
Internacional
W
25.04.25
Bahia
Atlético Nacional
L
10.04.25
Internacional
Atlético Nacional
L
03.04.25
Atlético Nacional
Nacional Montevideo
W
More matches

H2H: São Paulo — Atlético Nacional

Copa Libertadores 2025
13.08.25
Atlético Nacional
São Paulo

Group stage

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Group F
Team
Played
Matches played
W
D
L
Goals
Goals
Points
Points
1
Internacional
  3:0 2:1 3:3 6 3 2 1
12:8
11
2
Atlético Nacional
3:1   1:0 3:0 6 3 0 3
7:6
9
3
Bahia
1:1 1:0   1:3 6 2 1 3
5:7
7
4
Nacional Montevideo
0:2 1:0 0:1   6 2 1 3
7:10
7

Team lineups

São Paulo

Hernán Jorge Crespo
coach
Player Matches Goals
Line-up
Henrique Roberto Rafael
gk. 6 -4
Enzo Hernán Díaz
df. 6 0
Nahuel Ferraresi
df. 6 0
Alan Javier Franco
df. 5 0
Cédric Ricardo Alves Soares
df. 5 0
José Sabino Chagas Monteiro
df. 2 1
Damián Josué Bobadilla Benítez
mf. 4 0
Marcos Antônio
mf. 4 0
Rodriguinho
mf. 0 0
Luciano
fw. 6 1
André Oliveira Silva
fw. 5 3
Substitutes
Young Navarro Moraes
gk. 0 0
Nicolas Bosshardt
df. 0 0
Patryck Lanza dos Reis
df. 0 0
Pablo Gonçalves Maia Fortunato
mf. 2 0
Felipe Negrucci Berdague
mf. 0 0
Luan Vinícius da Silva Santos
mf. 0 0
Maik Gomes Viegas
mf. 0 0
Aldemir dos Santos Ferreira
fw. 5 2
Henrique Fabiano do Carmo
fw. 1 0
Lucas Moura
fw. 1 0
Gonzalo Andrés Tapia Dubournais
fw. 0 0
Juan Ignacio Dinenno de Cara
fw. 0 0
Atlético Nacional

Javier Marcelo Gandolfi
coach
Player Matches Goals
Line-up
David Ospina
gk. 5 -6
Andrés Román
df. 6 0
Camilo Damián Cándido Aquino
df. 6 0
Teofilo Gutierrez
df. 6 0
Juan José Arias Henao
mf. 6 0
Edwin Cardona
mf. 5 0
Juan Manuel Zapata Zumaque
mf. 3 0
Jorman David Campuzano Puentes
mf. 0 0
Alfredo José Morelos Aviléz
fw. 6 1
Marino Hinestroza
fw. 5 1
Marlos Moreno Durán
fw. 0 0
Substitutes
Harlen Alfred Castillo Moreno
gk. 1 0
Joan Sebastián Castro Dinas
df. 1 0
Andrés Salazar Osorio
df. 0 0
Royer Alejandro Caicedo González
df. 0 0
Mateus Uribe
mf. 3 0
Simón García Valero
mf. 1 0
Elkin José Rivero Almario
mf. 0 0
Juan Francisco Bauza
mf. 0 0
Luis Miguel Landázuri
mf. 0 0
Andrés Sarmiento
fw. 5 0
Facundo Agustín Batista Ochoa
fw. 0 0
Juan Manuel Rengifo Duque
fw. 0 0

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Andy H
Andy H
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