Bologna have improved their results in recent rounds, but their chances of progressing are long gone. Meanwhile, Sporting Lisbon’s recent slump has put their play-off hopes in jeopardy.
Two of Sporting Lisbon’s three defeats in the last three rounds were avoidable, even though they came on the road—both Club Brugge and RB Leipzig scored decisive goals against them in the final 15 minutes. Despite this, the Lisbon side remain in the play-off zone, thanks to a strong start in the group stage, winning three of their first four matches. Much of their success has been down to Viktor Gyökeres, who scored in each of those victories. The Swedish forward has been in sensational form, netting 34 goals in 33 matches across all competitions, keeping him in the hunt for the Golden Boot despite the lower UEFA coefficient of the Portuguese league. He will be the biggest threat to Bologna.
The Italian side lack a prolific goalscorer. Their top scorer, Riccardo Orsolini, has just eight goals across all competitions, and his participation in Lisbon is doubtful due to a muscle injury. Bologna have already played in Portugal in this Champions League campaign, managing to hold Benfica to a 0:0 draw—but only thanks to five crucial saves from goalkeeper Łukasz Skorupski. Offensively, they were nearly non-existent, creating just one clear-cut chance with a dismal 0.21 xG.
The weakest attack in the tournament stage (just three goals) will struggle to break down Sporting Lisbon, especially with Viktor Gyökeres leading the hosts’ attack. Sporting should win comfortably, but a high-scoring match is unlikely.
