FIFA World Cup 2026 Winner Odds and Predictions

The World Cup is approaching its climax, and we are finally set to see the Finalissima that was postponed in the spring. Lamine Yamal will contest his first major final against Lionel Messi, for whom this will be the final major match of his career.

Who will win the 2026 World Cup?

Key trends from previous World Cup finals

Some will say that every World Cup final has its own story, and they would be absolutely right. However, there are still some clear patterns. Here are several trends worth considering:

1. Extra time is often required. Most World Cup finals in the 21st century have been settled after 90 minutes. Only two tournaments have avoided the additional 30 minutes. In Russia, the gulf in quality between France and Croatia was simply too great, while in 2002 the brilliance of Ronaldo Nazário delivered the trophy for Brazil.

Both participants in the final in the United States have also needed more than 90 minutes in their decisive World Cup matches. Spain beat the Netherlands during the second period of extra time in South Africa, while Argentina lost to Germany in extra time. The 2022 World Cup final went all the way to a penalty shootout.

A 100% record for draws after 90 minutes, combined with an ROI of almost 70% from backing the draw whenever Spain or Argentina have reached the final, makes the draw an interesting option.

Spain vs Argentina, 19 July

2. European teams have struggled in the Americas. The record of European national teams at World Cups staged in the Americas is mixed. They have regularly dominated the knockout rounds, but have lifted the trophy only once. Germany won the tournament in Brazil in 2014, despite eight World Cups having been held in the region.

The overall record of European teams in the Americas remains respectable, with one title, five runners-up finishes and five third-place finishes. However, every World Cup final staged in the Americas has featured at least one South American team.

In 1986 and 1994, for example, three of the four semi-finalists came from Europe. Nevertheless, the trophy remained on the continent, with Argentina and Brazil winning those tournaments respectively. Does that sound familiar?

3. A penalty shootout? Back against Spain. World Cup finals between European and Latin American teams have produced only two penalty shootouts, at the 1994 and 2022 tournaments. On both occasions, the South American side came out on top.

Should another World Cup final staged in the Americas go to penalties, as happened in 1994, Argentina would have the advantage. The Albiceleste have won their last four shootouts and have lost only one of their seven shootouts at World Cups.

Spain, by contrast, have lost four of their five penalty shootouts. The defeats against Morocco (0:3) and Russia (4:5) will continue to haunt their supporters for a long time.

Spain vs Argentina: the second half may be the time to tune in

Remarkably, the teams last met in a competitive match 60 years ago. Argentina came out on top at the World Cup in England. Friendly matches are hardly worth considering, while the heavily promoted Finalissima, which is little more than a friendly, never took place.

There is no reason to regret the lack of competitive meetings. Argentina only began producing genuinely impressive team football in the early 2010s, while Spain played a fairly pragmatic style even at their peak.

Throughout seven matches at the 2026 World Cup, both teams have taken plenty of time to get going. The first halves of their respective matches against Cabo Verde were more effective than sleeping pills.

Under 1.5 goals in the first half in Spain and Argentina matches at the 2026 World Cup (bet size — 10 £)

With so much at stake and the potential cost of a mistake, that pattern is unlikely to change. The bookmakers have already reacted, with the odds on Under 1.5 first-half goals shortened to 1.30 (Hollywood) An alternative is the first-half Asian total of under 1 goal at 3/5 where the stake is returned if exactly one goal is scored.

Tune in for the second half and hope that the pace increases and more clear chances are created. There are reasons for optimism, as Argentina have recorded five consecutive matches in which both teams have scored.

Both Teams to Score in Argentina matches at the 2026 World Cup (bet size — 10 £)

Both Teams to Score in the final is available at an appealing 19/20 The ultimate box office scenario would see both Lionel Messi and Lamine Yamal find the net. Lionel Messi to score his ninth goal of the tournament is priced at 7/4 while Lamine Yamal to score his second is available at 23/10

Should Lamine Yamal score, the Best Young Player award would surely be his.

How the odds on the 2026 World Cup finalists changed

Spain were considered the tournament favourites right up until the World Cup began, although they surrendered top spot to France a couple of weeks before the opening match. Argentina were not even among the five leading contenders, with England, Brazil and, at one stage, Portugal all priced ahead of them.

Odds movement for Spain and Argentina 

Lionel Messi's brilliance during the group stage sent Argentina's odds tumbling by almost half. Spain, meanwhile, failed to impress and dropped out of the top five contenders for the title.

Both teams have produced uneven performances in the knockout stage, which is particularly evident from the movement in Argentina's odds. That is hardly surprising, given that they needed extra time against Switzerland and Cabo Verde, while they were clearly fortunate to survive their match against Egypt.

The Albiceleste also enter the final as outsiders. Spain may not have produced the most entertaining football, but they faced more formidable opposition and eliminated both France and Portugal.

2026 World Cup Final Prediction 

Spain are unlikely to abandon their usual style, while Argentina always adjust their approach according to the opposition. There is little chance of seeing free-flowing attacking football. With the title at stake, the match is likely to be decided by one or two key moments.

Spain have the system, the midfield and the greater depth. Argentina rely on Lionel Messi's talent, their excellent bursts forward and, at times, FIFA's lenient approach towards fouls committed by their players.

Argentina's best periods still tend to come when they pin their opponents back and apply maximum pressure during the final 10 to 15 minutes. Until then, Spain are likely to control the initiative. The main reason to watch the first half is the attractive price available on a goalless scoreline.

Spain vs Argentina, 19 July

Individual markets for the World Cup final

For the first time in history, Lionel Messi could collect every major individual award at a single World Cup. The Best Young Player award is probably the only one beyond his reach.

Top goalscorer

Before the tournament, the leading battle appeared likely to be between Kylian Mbappé and Harry Kane. Lionel Messi has outshone everyone once again and also eliminated Harry Kane in the semi-final. Kylian Mbappé then took himself out of the equation, ensuring there would be no repeat of the 2022 World Cup final.

Who will finish as the top goalscorer at the 2026 World Cup?

One more goal would make Lionel Messi the outright leading scorer. A detailed breakdown of every possible scenario in the Golden Boot race is available in our dedicated article.

Most assists

Michael Olise still leads the standings with five assists, but the France international has faded badly during the knockout stage. After recording two assists against Sweden, his performances declined, and the match against Spain was his worst of the season.

Lionel Messi, meanwhile, appears to have grown tired of scoring and has instead decided to improve his assist tally, providing four assists in three matches.

Who will record the most assists at the 2026 World Cup?

Didier Deschamps may choose to field several reserve players in the third-place play-off. Lionel Messi, however, has a strong chance of adding another assist in the final.

Best player

The tournament's Golden Ball is a more subjective honour, but the leading candidate is obvious this year. Lionel Messi has not left the pitch without recording a goal or an assist in any match. Regardless of the result in the final, he could end his international career with a hat-trick of individual awards.

We have already covered the details surrounding this award, but the identity of the 2026 World Cup's best player also appears clear to the bookmakers. Lionel Messi is priced at just 3/20

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