World Cup 2026 Best Player Odds & Golden Ball Predictions

26 May 09:39

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FIFA has handed out the World Cup Golden Ball award since 1982, and Lionel Messi remains the only player to win it twice. This time, however, the Argentine has not made the top three favourites.

Who will be named the best player at the 2026 World Cup?

Kane

7/1

Yamal

8/1

Mbappe

10/1

Who has the best chance of taking home the tournament’s top individual award, how FIFA usually decides the winner, and whether there is any real logic behind it at all — we break it all down below.

Best Player at the 2026 World Cup: Betting Odds

Unsurprisingly, the leading contenders are the star men of the tournament favourites: England, Spain and France.

World Cup 2026 Best Player odds

Player	Hollywood Bets	Betfred	Virgin Bets
Harry Kane	7/1	9/1	7/1
Lamine Yamal	7/1	8/1	8/1
Kylian Mbappe	10/1	10/1	10/1
Michael Olise	10/1	10/1	10/1
Lionel Messi	10/1	12/1	10/1

All the main candidates are attacking players, which is hardly surprising given how rarely footballers in other positions receive the award. Out of the 11 previous World Cup Golden Ball winners, only two midfielders have claimed it — Luka Modric at the 2018 World Cup and Zinedine Zidane in 2006 — while goalkeeper Oliver Kahn remains the only keeper to win it, doing so in 2002.

Harry Kane: Will Goals Alone Be Enough?

Kane heads into the tournament in his prime as comfortably the standout player for both Bayern Munich and England. The disappointment of falling short in the UEFA Champions League could easily be forgotten if England finally lift the World Cup trophy. Under Thomas Tuchel, the national team have looked far more dynamic and entertaining than it has for years.

Harry Kane’s stats in the 2025/26 season

Matches	Minutes	Goals	Assists
51	4,048	61	7

Bookmakers have Kane as the favourite, yet throughout his career it has often felt like he lacked either the media hype or the elite club success needed to land individual honours of this magnitude. Even the understated Modric could point to three consecutive UEFA Champions League titles with Real Madrid.

UEFA, FIFA and other football organisations have consistently overlooked not only Kane but England players in general. No Englishman has ever finished in the top three for the World Cup Golden Ball award.

Another important factor is Tuchel’s demands of Kane. Above all else, the England captain is there to score goals. Kane has collected Golden Boots throughout his career and sits second in the odds for top scorer at the 2026 World Cup at 13/2 Given the level of opposition England are likely to face, Kane could easily finish as the tournament’s leading scorer, but the race for best player feels more complicated.

Lamine Yamal Is Not Arriving at the World Cup Fully Fit

Barcelona’s Golden Boy travels to the World Cup as one of the headline stars of the tournament, helped massively by football’s relentless hype machine over the past two seasons. Yamal is unquestionably one of the most gifted young players in the world, but questions remain over his consistency and professionalism.

The biggest issue is fitness. Lamine is currently injured and is only expected to be available towards the end of the group stage or for the opening knockout round. Under those circumstances, it will be difficult for him to reach peak form quickly.

Lamine Yamal’s stats in the 2025/26 season

Matches	Minutes	Goals	Assists
45	3,699	24	17

Yamal is unlikely to challenge for the Golden Boot. A push for top assist provider is more realistic, but his rivals could already have two or three group-stage matches to build up numbers before he even gets going.

Does Yamal influence Spain’s play? Absolutely. Is he as irreplaceable for Spain as Mbappe is for France or Kane is for England? Definitely not. The winger impressed at UEFA Euro 2024, but even there he failed to pick up any individual awards.

There is also a recurring issue with Yamal fading in the biggest matches. Given that, he probably only enters the conversation for the Golden Ball if Spain win the World Cup and he delivers something like two goals and four assists.

Kylian Mbappé: The Dictator Heads to Conquer America

Mbappe has slipped to third in the betting largely because of the toxic end to the season at Real Madrid. Internal tensions at the club, the lack of silverware and the ongoing debate over his influence on decisions behind the scenes have all damaged his reputation.

Another criticism from supporters is his obsession with individual honours. Mbappe has already collected the La Liga and UEFA Champions League Golden Boots, and he is also favourite to finish as the top scorer at the World Cup. Odds of 23/4 are available for him to win the award for a second consecutive tournament.

None of that changes the fact that Mbappe has been Real Madrid’s leading scorer this year.

Kylian Mbappe’s stats in the 2025/26 season

Matches	Minutes	Goals	Assists
44	3,530	42	6

His influence on the France national team was already obvious at the World Cup in Russia, but the tournament in Qatar confirmed that Mbappe is one of the team’s true leaders on the pitch.

This time he will be supported in attack by what could be peak versions of Ousmane Dembele and Michael Olise. Both are also considered outsiders for the Golden Ball — Dembele is priced at 20/1 while Olise is available at 10/1 — although both players tend to shine more as creators than finishers.

Can Mbappe cope with the pressure of captaining France at his first World Cup as skipper? There are doubts. His form dipped towards the end of the season, and the knee problems he suffered during the winter could easily resurface at the worst possible moment.

What Actually Matters: Influence, Trophies or Hype?

Just like the Ballon d’Or later in the year, the criteria for selecting the best player at the World Cup are anything but clear. Does a player have to win the tournament? In the 21st century, the award has only gone to a World Cup winner once — when Lionel Messi claimed it in Qatar in 2022.

Is it all about goals and assists? That seems unlikely. There is already a Golden Boot award for top scorer, while FIFA also recognises the leading assist provider. In fact, the World Cup Golden Ball has only once been won by the tournament’s top scorer — Italy’s Salvatore Schillaci at Italia 90.

FIFA itself describes the key factor as influence on the game, which is an extremely vague concept. Impact can be measured through advanced data, general impressions or leadership qualities on the pitch.

There are no complaints about Messi in 2022 or Luka Modric in 2018, but it is far less obvious just how decisive Diego Forlan really was for Uruguay in 2010, or even Messi himself at the World Cup in Brazil four years later.

Another factor worth considering is hype and media presence. Millions celebrated and cried alongside Messi in Qatar, while Modric’s achievements for both club and country were constantly highlighted by the football media between 2016 and 2018. There is hardly any need to mention Zinedine Zidane, Diego Maradona or Ronaldo Nazario.

From that mix, a rough formula for success starts to emerge:

Reach at least the final with your national team, or at minimum go very deep into the tournament;
Produce strong numbers in goals and assists, especially now that the expanded format offers more matches;
Already be one of football’s biggest names or have an impressive collection of trophies behind you.

And one final detail — the last three World Cups have all seen players with the initials L.M. win the award. Will it be Lionel Messi again in 2026? Luka Modric? Or perhaps Lautaro Martinez at 50/1 ?

Written Off Already: Which Players Does FIFA Tend to Overlook?

Even with a stacked field of stars heading to North America, recent FIFA trends make it possible to narrow down the realistic contenders.

Brazil’s Unlucky Ballon d’Or Candidates

Raphinha and Vinicius Junior are almost certainly out of the running. There are footballing reasons for that, with growing suspicion that Brazil could once again fall short and fail to reach the final, but there are political and media factors too.

Vinicius appears to have fallen out of favour with UEFA, FIFA and other international football organisations after the 2024 Ballon d’Or controversy, when Rodri snatched the award at the last moment. As for Raphinha, he is ignored so consistently that he struggles even to make team-of-the-season selections.

Premier League Players

The Premier League has long been viewed as the toughest league in the world, yet no player representing an English club has ever won the World Cup Golden Ball. Perhaps the intensity of the domestic season simply leaves players with little left in the tank by the time the World Cup arrives.

Young Stars

FIFA has never been particularly eager to hand major awards to young players. The youngest ever winner of the World Cup Golden Ball remains Ronaldo Nazario, who claimed it at the 1998 World Cup aged 22. The Brazilian phenomenon still stands alone, while Lamine Yamal and Desire Doue are more likely to battle for the Young Player of the Tournament award instead.

Looking at the Bigger Prices: Who Could Surprise?

The first option is Messi. The upcoming World Cup will almost certainly be the final major tournament of the Argentine legend’s international career, and there is a strong chance he retires from the national team afterwards. Everything lines up nicely for him: no major acclimatisation issues and relatively manageable opposition at least until the quarter-finals.

If Argentina reach the final, the award could already belong to Messi. Even a semi-final elimination might not stop him from finishing near the top of the voting, thanks to his likely numbers across the tournament and his iconic status within world football.

Best player at the 2026 World Cup — Lionel Messi

Bonus £30

Bet

10/1

Another less obvious contender is Jude Bellingham. If Kane is England’s captain and main goalscorer, then Bellingham is arguably the true leader who connects every area of the side.

Bellingham was one of the standout players at UEFA Euro 2024 and fits the profile in several other ways too — he does not play in England and has already moved beyond the label of young prospect. He also looks fresher than many rivals after returning from injury at the end of March and building specifically towards the World Cup.

Best player at the 2026 World Cup — Jude Bellingham

Bonus £50

Bet

25/1

Every World Cup Golden Ball Winner

The World Cup Golden Ball has been awarded since 1982, when FIFA decided to introduce the prize alongside the traditional Golden Boot.

Under FIFA protocol, a shortlist of the tournament’s best players is drawn up before the final, after which accredited media representatives vote for the winner.

World Cup Golden Ball winners (1982–2022)

World Cup	Winner
2022	Lionel Messi (Argentina)
2018	Luka Modric (Croatia)
2014	Lionel Messi (Argentina)
2010	Diego Forlan (Uruguay)
2006	Zinedine Zidane (France)
2002	Oliver Kahn (Germany)
1998	Cristiano Ronaldo (Brazil)
1994	Romario de Souza Faria (Brazil)
1990	Salvatore Schillaci (Italy)
1986	Diego Maradona (Argentina)
1982	Paolo Rossi (Italy)

The system strongly resembles the Ballon d’Or voting process run by France Football and suffers from many of the same issues. In most cases, journalists simply choose the most high-profile players or those they personally support — or oppose.

It would surprise nobody if Lionel Messi finished in the top three again, even if Argentina were eliminated in the early knockout rounds. Expect Lamine Yamal to appear prominently in the voting as well, despite potentially only featuring from the knockout stage onwards.

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