Brazil Set for Another World Cup Failure

Brazil have not won the World Cup since 2002, losing four times in the quarter-finals and once in the semi-finals. Even so, they are still regularly among the top five favourites with the bookmakers. Ahead of the 2026 World Cup in America, the same story is playing out again: Brazil are expected to produce something special, but there is nobody to play the hero.

Who will win the 2026 World Cup?

We have found five reasons why Brazil should not be viewed as World Cup favourites, and their biggest superstars are at the heart of the problem.

What Is Wrong with Brazil ahead of the 2026 World Cup?

Carlo Ancelotti’s appointment and the scandals around Neymar’s inclusion in the squad have, as ever, ensured Brazil are making plenty of noise before the tournament. Expectations from the fans and the federation are sky high, with the team being asked to reach at least the final, and ideally to win the title.

Ancelotti’s appointment looked like a gamble from the start, but the following months, the pressure from supporters and, as the final note, the announcement of the World Cup squad confirmed those fears. Brazil do not even look set for a medal in the United States. Here is why.

Reason No. 1: Neymar

There has probably never been such pressure on a manager from fans, football figures and the federation to include one player in a squad. The issue is the player himself: Neymar has been difficult to regard as a fully functioning footballer for several years, and there is no practical sense in taking him to the World Cup.

At first glance, Neymar’s numbers are not that bad: 12 goals and 3 assists in 25 Brazilian Serie A matches. On the other hand, the forward only came alive at critical moments. He saved Santos from relegation to Serie B at the end of last season, but playing 25 matches in a year and a half is only an achievement for a Brazilian who made seven appearances across more than two seasons in Saudi Arabia.

Unfortunately, Neymar does not just want to go to the World Cup. He plans to start, which would seriously damage not only Brazil’s attacking structure but also their defensive balance, as the forward has never worked back.

Two bright forwards up front, both demanding the ball constantly, will give Ancelotti Madrid flashbacks. Neymar’s real level is starting against Haiti, scoring a penalty and going off to applause.

Brazil vs Haiti, 20 May

A few weeks before the World Cup starts, Neymar is still recovering from another injury and, given the complications, there is a chance the forward may not make it to the tournament. However sad it sounds, that would be the best option for Brazil.

Reason No. 2: Vinicius Junior

Vinicius Junior for Brazil has been a failure. In five years with the national team, Vinicius Junior has yet to produce a genuinely elite performance.

Vinicius Junior’s stats for Brazil (2021–2026)

Leaving aside Vinicius Junior’s behaviour on the pitch, his influence on Real Madrid cannot be underestimated. He is quick, sharp and, at times, ruthless. The question is where that spark disappears to in Brazil matches. At the 2022 World Cup, he had only a 38% successful dribble rate and averaged 12.5 turnovers per game across his four appearances.

If Vinicius Junior was supposed to become the next Seleção leader, that bet has not paid off. His 1 goal and 2 assists at the 2022 World Cup and 2 goals with 0 assists at the 2024 Copa America speak for themselves, and it is hard to expect much more from the winger at the tournament in the United States.

It might have seemed that the federation had played a masterstroke by appointing the manager who turned the youngster at Real Madrid into a Ballon d’Or contender, but even that is not so simple.

Reason No. 3: Carlo Ancelotti

Ancelotti is a true maestro who has won everything there is to win, and from a media perspective the Brazilian federation did an excellent job. From a practical point of view, this is the worst possible option.

Carlo builds his teams above all through chemistry and a united dressing room. How that will work in a national team, where matches are played once every few months and squads constantly change, is unclear.

The Italian also looked visibly drained after his final spell in Madrid, where the atmosphere worsened month by month. Ancelotti left as a winner, but his energy and motivation have clearly dropped. Brazilian carnivals are the perfect pre-retirement break, although from a results perspective, this looks like a road to nowhere.

The behind the scenes power games are a separate series. Ancelotti made it clear he would not call up Neymar just because of his name and would focus on local stars. For six months, Ancelotti travelled around Serie A matches to bend to public opinion and eventually call up Neymar.

A couple of weeks before the squad announcement, Carlo gets a contract extension and a big pay rise. Coincidence?

Reason No. 4: Four Midfielders Are Not Enough

Casemiro, Bruno, Danilo and Fabinho: this is the midfield with which the Seleção are heading to conquer America. In an era when the centre of the pitch dictates the game, Ancelotti is taking four midfielders to try to win the title against teams with Pedri, Jude Bellingham and Vitinha.

Casemiro is also a veteran who played 33 Premier League matches at the age of 34. Fabinho is playing in Saudi Arabia, and even at his peak at Anfield he was not exactly the model of reliability.

Araujo and Andrey Santos were in the extended lists, players who can maintain the tempo and cover behind the attacking trio, but for some reason they were left out of the squad. Danilo and Bruno will not last an entire tournament, and playing 4-2-4 in 2026 does not work even in football simulators.

Reason No. 5: The Goalkeeping Situation

Two or three seasons ago, there would have been no debate over Brazil’s goalkeeper: Alisson and Ederson were the dream options for any manager. In their current state, though, both keepers have long since slipped from that level. Ederson is arguing with Turkish supporters while regularly making mistakes at Fenerbahce, while Alisson is endlessly injured and cannot get back to his best.

Comparison of Alisson and Ederson in the 2025/26 season

By comparison, Raya has a 75.6% save rate and 28 clean sheets, while Courtois, even in a troubled Real Madrid side, is at 76.3% with 17 clean sheets. Both have zero in the major errors column.

There were rumours that Ancelotti could take Bento, but his dreadful performances in friendlies and a string of absurd errors, which almost cost Al-Nassr the title, ruled out that option. The problem remains: Brazil do not have a stable goalkeeper.

Brazil Have Not Learned From Their Past World Cup Failures

The Seleção’s upsets over the last 20 years have been fairly logical, given that the team keep repeating the same mistakes year after year:

1. Jogo bonito is an anachronism. The legendary jogo bonito has not been relevant for around a decade, especially with the current trends towards structure, counter pressing and balance between the lines. Brazil still refuse to understand that, even though only one player in the squad can really claim to fit that style: Vinicius Junior.

2. Neymar dependency. When Neymar is the leader of the national team, trouble is never far away. Injuries, inconsistency and playing according to mood: with that approach, winning a World Cup in the 21st century is impossible. Where will a poker tournament regular and Al-Hilal legend lead the team in 2026? To another early elimination.

3. Midfield. Since the days of Kaka, the Seleção have still not found a player who can set the rhythm in the middle of the pitch. Players such as Casemiro and Paulinho are all well and good, but in that version the attacking trio automatically operate separately from the rest of the team. We saw that at the last three World Cups.

What to Expect From Brazil at the 2026 World Cup

None of the problems that followed Brazil at previous World Cups have been solved. The squad is still tilted towards attack, and that attack is hardly sparkling. Midfield has been left in the hands of 34 year old Casemiro, while behind them are the error prone Ederson and the underprepared Alisson.

The bookmakers have noticed something is not right as well. At the start of April, the odds on Brazil winning their group were 1.13, but they have now drifted to 3/10 A 15% increase for a favourite says plenty.

The group and the early knockout rounds may still be manageable, but by the quarter-finals there will be strong sides left in the tournament, such as Portugal, the Netherlands and even Belgium, and they should have little trouble getting past Brazil. At least we will get to see Neymar at the World Cup.

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