FIFA World Cup 2026 Odds to Qualify From Group

FIFA has expanded the field for the 2026 World Cup, with the number of groups rising to 12. In almost every group, the race to reach the knockout stage is still alive heading into the third round, and there are still some interesting options to be found in the betting lines.

Who will win the World Cup 2026?

Here is a look at the state of play in every World Cup 2026 group before the decisive round of fixtures, highlighting the long term bets worth considering.

Germany, the United States, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, France, Norway, South Africa, Brazil, Morocco and Bosnia have already officially qualified for the knockout stage.

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1. Group D: The Turkish gambit backfired
2. Group E: Has Diallo sent Ivory Coast into the knockout stage?
3. Group F: Sweden's ups and downs and an impressive Netherlands side
4. Group G: Everything will be decided on the final matchday
5. Group H: Bring on Spain vs Argentina in the round of 32!
6. Group I: The favourites are in complete control
7. Group J: Messi! Messi!
8. Group K: Is Cristiano Ronaldo back?
9. Group L: The Ghanaian wizard knows his stuff

Group D: The Turkish gambit backfired

The first major shock of World Cup 2026 is that Turkey will not reach the knockout stage. There were big expectations around the national team, but their finishing let them down: after taking more than 60 shots across two games, Turkey failed to score once, losing first to Australia (0:2) and then to Paraguay (0:1).

Group D winner and qualification odds

* After the second round.

The United States have already secured top spot, while second place will be decided in the game between Australia and Paraguay. The bookmakers are rightly backing Australia.

Group E: Has Diallo sent Ivory Coast into the knockout stage?

Julian Nagelsmann’s men are already in the knockout stage, and Germany are likely to rotate heavily for the game against Ecuador. Ecuador have been so poor that they could not even beat Curaçao, so they should not be banking on a place in the next round.

Group E winner and qualification odds

* After the second round.

Overall, the picture here is clear: Germany and Ivory Coast are 99 per cent likely to play in the round of 32, while everything will be decided for Ecuador in the final round. As things stand, the South American side would not even qualify through the third place table, sitting 10th. 

The 1/4 on Ecuador not to qualify looks interesting.

Group F: Sweden's ups and downs and an impressive Netherlands side

The Netherlands responded to dropping points in the opening round by thrashing Sweden, and the match against Tunisia is effectively a formality. Ronald Koeman does not have the deepest bench, but beating a team who could have a third coach in three weeks should be a straightforward task.

The 1/4 on the Netherlands to win the group is a gift that should not be ignored.

Group F winner and qualification odds

* After the second round.

Sweden are still lurching from one extreme to the other: one win and one defeat by the same 5:1 scoreline. Graham Potter’s magic may not be enough against the ruthless Samurai Blue, but their place in the knockout stage is unlikely to disappear. Sweden currently lead the third place table. The main thing is not to get blown away 5:1 again. 

Group G: Everything will be decided on the final matchday

This is still the most intriguing group at World Cup 2026, with absolutely nothing clear yet. While Doku was welcoming a new addition to his family, Belgium still could not find a way past Beiranvand in a 0:0 draw. Before Egypt’s win, Iran were even top of the group.

Group G winner and qualification odds

* After the second round.

The bookmakers still do not believe in Iran. A slog against Egypt awaits, one that will most likely end in a draw, but three points should be enough to reach the knockout stage, and the 13/20 looks promising at the very least.

Group H: Bring on Spain vs Argentina in the round of 32!

Spain predictably returned to top spot by brushing aside Saudi Arabia in the second round, winning 4:0, and their grip on first place now depends on the game against Uruguay. We could potentially be in for a superb match as early as the round of 32, with the second placed team in this group set to face Argentina. 

Group H winner and qualification odds

* After the second round.

On the other hand, Uruguay have not looked at their best so far, and backing them to win looks difficult. Their qualification from the group is also in serious doubt, priced at 3/2

If Uruguay lose in the third round and Cape Verde win, Uruguay will almost certainly miss out on the knockout stage. We believe Vaguinho and company will not fall apart against Saudi Arabia, so we are backing Cape Verde to qualify at 2/5 We may be about to witness history.

Group I: The favourites are in complete control

France and Norway won their matches as expected and will fight for top spot in the third round. Kylian Mbappé against Erling Haaland sounds excellent, provided the coaches do not decide to protect their stars ahead of the knockout stage.

Group I winner and qualification odds

* After the second round.

The game between Senegal and Iraq holds little appeal, either in terms of footballing quality or tournament significance, with both national teams highly likely to be eliminated.

Even so, the bookmakers have posted strange prices. Senegal are bottom of the third place table, so 7/4 on the African side not to qualify looks like a gift.

Group J: Messi! Messi!

The 39-year-old Messi is on fire: five goals in two matches and Klose’s record broken. There is still plenty of World Cup football to come, and he could even take aim at Fontaine’s record of 13 goals at the 1958 World Cup, provided Scaloni lets Leo run riot against a Jordan side who are definitely heading home.

Argentina have reached the knockout stage as group winners, and the bookmakers reacted immediately. The Albiceleste are now priced level with England at 13/2 to win the World Cup.

Group J winner and qualification odds

* After the second round.

Second place will be decided in the match between Austria and Algeria. Both national teams are almost certain to reach the knockout stage, as the odds also suggest. The only question is who they face in the round of 32. In practice, the difference is small, as every scenario points to a meeting with one of the group winners.

In any case, the 1/5 on Algeria looks slightly overpriced, given the goal difference and Austria’s ageing attack.

Group K: Is Cristiano Ronaldo back?

Portugal dropped points against DR Congo, but then produced a convincing 5:0 win over Uzbekistan. Ronaldo also made history by scoring at six World Cups, but next up is a meeting with the current group leaders, Colombia, where Cristiano Ronaldo could again fade from view.

Group K winner and qualification odds

* After the second round.

The 17/20 on Colombia to win the group looks appealing. The South American side are one of the dark horses of the tournament, and a draw in the final round would be enough for them to reach the knockout stage as group winners for the third time in a row.

DR Congo to qualify at 7/10 is also worth a closer look. A demoralised Uzbekistan side await in the third round, and a potential four points with a decent goal difference would amount to another statement bid for a World Cup upset.

Group L: The Ghanaian wizard knows his stuff

The Ghanaian shaman did not just disrupt Kane’s finishing, he also brought a touch of Southgate energy to England’s performance. There is no other way to explain that dreadful match against Ghana. Even so, England are unlikely to surrender top spot. They face Panama next, and Harry Kane needs to get himself back into the Golden Boot race, where he is currently trailing his rivals and has slipped to fourth in the market at 12/1

Group L winner and qualification odds

* After the second round.

Croatia beat Panama as expected and will now battle Ghana for second place. Both national teams are likely to reach the knockout stage, given their goal difference and points totals, but if it is the Balkan side who go through, we are in for another excellent round of 32 tie, either against Colombia or Portugal.

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