Albania vs San Marino: prediction & betting odds 6 October 2026

Odds overview

Albania are clear favourites: they are 1.02 to win, while the draw and a San Marino win are available at around 16.00 and 35.00 respectively. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.16 is strongly favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 4.40.

Why Albania are favourites

The bookmakers give the hosts a clear advantage: an Albania win is offered at 1.02, compared with 35.00 for San Marino and 16.00 for the draw.

• Albania have already shown their superior quality in the head-to-head meeting on 29 September 2026, beating San Marino 3:0 away from home with goals from Adri Mehmeti, Myrto Uzuni and Rey Manaj.
• San Marino have the lowest scoring record in the UEFA Nations League, having failed to score a goal.

Form and Line-up Albania

In the previous UEFA Nations League round on 3 October 2026, Albania lost 1:2 to Finland, but played most of the match with ten men after goalkeeper Etrit Berisha was sent off in the 22nd minute.

At home, Albania tightly control the areas around their goal: in the pre-match league data, their opponents' xG stands at 0.52, the third lowest among 54 teams. In 9 of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches, opponents have had fewer than 4.5 shots on target.

• There have been over 7.5 corners in 8 of Albania's last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
• Albania have committed fewer than 12.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
• The total number of shots on target has not exceeded 9.5 in 9 of Albania's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.

Probable Albania line-up (4-3-3): Alen Sherri, Elseid Hysaj, Berat Djimsiti, Ardian Ismajli, Mario Mitaj, Stavro Pilo, Ylber Ramadani, Kristjan Asllani, Arber Hoxha, Ernest Muci, Rey Manaj.

Etrit Berisha will miss the match because of the red card he received in the previous game.

Form and Line-up San Marino

San Marino lost 0:3 at home to Albania in the UEFA Nations League on 29 September 2026.

Away from home, San Marino remain combative but rarely threaten the opposition goal: they have not lost the yellow-card count in their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches, while registering fewer than 4.5 shots on target in 9 of those 10 games.

• San Marino have committed more than 11.5 fouls in 8 of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
• San Marino have been caught offside fewer than 1.5 times in 9 of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
• San Marino have taken fewer than 11.5 shots in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.

Probable San Marino line-up (4-3-1-2): Edoardo Colombo, Giacomo Benvenuti, Michele Cevoli, Marco Pasolini, Simone Giocondi, Samuele Zannoni, Lorenzo Capicchioni, Alessandro Golinucci, Lorenzo Lazzari, Nicolas Giacopetti, Nicholas Protti.

Nicola Nanni is unavailable through suspension.

Both teams' chances

An Albania win is offered at 1.02, with fair odds of 1.09 and a 91.5% probability. The draw is available at 16.00, with fair odds of 17.14 and a 5.8% probability; a San Marino win is 35.00, with fair odds of 37.50 and a 2.7% probability.

Total goals prediction

In the totals market, Under 2.5 goals is available at 4.40 and Over 2.5 at 1.16. At 3.5 goals, Under is 2.57 and Over is 1.45: bookmakers rate the higher-scoring outcome considerably more likely.

Who Will Referee the Match

Mehmet Türkmen (Turkey)

Matches — 6 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);

Average fouls per match — 28;

Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4;

Matches with a red card — 1 of 6;

Matches with a penalty — 3 of 6.