Odds overview
Albania are overwhelming favourites: an Albania win is available at 1.02, while the draw and a San Marino win are around 16.00 and 35.00 respectively. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.16 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 4.40.
Why Albania are favourites
Bookmakers give the hosts a clear advantage: an Albania win is offered at 1.02, a San Marino win at 35.00 and the draw at 16.00.
- Albania showed their superiority in the head-to-head meeting on 29 September 2026, beating San Marino 3:0 away from home with goals from Adri Mehmeti, Myrto Uzuni and Rey Manaj.
- San Marino have scored the fewest goals in the UEFA Nations League, having failed to score at all.
Form and Line-up Albania
In the previous UEFA Nations League round on 3 October 2026, Albania lost 1:2 to Finland, but played most of the match with ten men after goalkeeper Etrit Berisha was sent off in the 22nd minute.
At home, Albania tightly control the approaches to their goal: in the pre-match league figures, their opponents' xG stands at 0.52, the third lowest among 54 teams, and opponents had fewer than 4.5 shots on target in 9 of Albania's last 10 UEFA Nations League home matches.
- There were more than 7.5 corners in 8 of Albania's last 10 UEFA Nations League home matches.
- Albania committed fewer than 12.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League home matches.
- The combined total of shots on target did not exceed 9.5 in 9 of Albania's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Albania line-up (4-3-3): Alen Sherri, Elseid Hysaj, Berat Djimsiti, Ardian Ismajli, Mario Mitaj, Stavro Pilo, Ylber Ramadani, Kristjan Asllani, Arber Hoxha, Ernest Muci, Rey Manaj.
Etrit Berisha will miss the match because of the red card he received in the previous game.
Form and Line-up San Marino
San Marino lost 0:3 at home to Albania in the UEFA Nations League on 29 September 2026.
Away from home, San Marino remain combative but rarely threaten the opposition goal: they have not lost the yellow-card count in their last 10 UEFA Nations League away matches, while recording fewer than 4.5 shots on target in 9 of those 10 games.
- San Marino committed more than 11.5 fouls in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League away matches.
- San Marino were caught offside fewer than 1.5 times in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League away matches.
- San Marino took fewer than 11.5 shots in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable San Marino line-up (4-3-1-2): Edoardo Colombo, Giacomo Benvenuti, Michele Cevoli, Marco Pasolini, Simone Giocondi, Samuele Zannoni, Lorenzo Capicchioni, Alessandro Golinucci, Lorenzo Lazzari, Nicolas Giacopetti, Nicholas Protti.
Nicola Nanni is unavailable through suspension.
The teams' chances
An Albania win is quoted at 1.02, with fair odds of 1.09 and a 91.5% probability. The draw is available at 16.00, with fair odds of 17.14 and a 5.8% probability; a San Marino win is offered at 35.00, with fair odds of 37.50 and a 2.7% probability.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Albania win | 1.02 | 1.09 | 91.5% |
| Draw | 16.00 | 17.14 | 5.8% |
| San Marino win | 35.00 | 37.50 | 2.7% |
Total goals prediction
In the totals market, Under 2.5 goals is available at 4.40 and Over 2.5 goals at 1.16. For the 3.5-goal line, Under is quoted at 2.57 and Over at 1.45: bookmakers see a high-scoring match as considerably more likely.
| Goal line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 4.40 | 1.16 |
| 3.5 | 2.57 | 1.45 |
