Odds overview
A home win is available at around 1.57, the draw at 4.10 and an away win at 6.10. Under 2.5 goals and Over 2.5 goals are both offered at 1.90. In the handicap market at 0, the home Draw No Bet at 1.18 is clearly favoured over the away Draw No Bet at 4.05.
Why Atalanta are favourites
An Atalanta win is available at 1.57, the draw at 4.10 and a Cagliari win at 6.10. The reasons for this assessment are:
Atalanta are ahead of their opponents in the table, with 6 points from their first three matches and two wins. They have looked more assured at the start of the season.
Cagliari have averaged just 0.67 goals per match at the start of the season — clearly not enough to compete for points in Bergamo.
Atalanta have lost to Cagliari only once in their last six head-to-head meetings.
Form and Line-up Atalanta
In the last Serie A round, Atalanta lost 1:2 away to Roma after conceding the decisive goal in the closing minutes, with Ederson scoring their only goal. However, Maurizio Sarri's side won their previous two matches — 2:1 against Sassuolo and 1:0 against Bologna. Atalanta also managed to reach the Conference League group stage by beating Hapoel Tel Aviv (0:0, 1:0).
Key numbers:
In 10 of their last 10 home Serie A matches, Atalanta have received no more than two yellow cards.
In 9 of their last 10 home Serie A matches, Atalanta's opponents have taken no more than five corners.
In 9 of their last 10 home league matches, Atalanta's opponents have committed no more than 13 fouls.
Probable Atalanta line-up (4-3-3): Marco Carnesecchi — Raoul Bellanova, Odilon Kossounou, Giorgio Scalvini, Sead Kolasinac — Lazar Samardzic, Mario Pasalic, Ederson — Charles De Ketelaere, Gianluca Scamacca, Eljif Elmas.
Absentees: Gianluca Gaetano (suspended), Isak Hien and Kamaldeen Sulemana (both injured).
Form and Line-up Cagliari
Despite their modest budget (€120 million), Cagliari have made a fairly successful start to the new season — wins over Parma (1:0) and Lecce (1:0), plus a narrow defeat to Inter (0:1), with the only goal scored in the ninth minute.
Key numbers:
In 9 of their last 10 away Serie A matches, Cagliari have taken no more than five corners.
In 10 of their last 10 away Serie A matches, Cagliari's opponents have received no more than two yellow cards.
In 9 of Cagliari's last 10 away Serie A matches, there have been no more than three offsides.
Probable Cagliari line-up (4-3-2-1): Elia Caprile — Ze Pedro, Alessandro Deiola, Juan Rodriguez, Adam Obert — Michel Adopo, Alessandro Romano, Harry Winks — Jacopo Fazzini, Daniel Maldini — Patrick Mendy.
Absentees: Mbala Nzola, Mattia Felici, Yael Trepy and Yerry Mina (all injured).
Team chances
A home win at 1.57 corresponds to fair odds of 1.64 and a probability of 61.0%; the draw at 4.10 to 4.28 and 23.3%; and an away win at 6.10 to 6.37 and 15.7%. Atalanta are clear market favourites.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
Atalanta win | 1.57 | 1.64 | 61.0% |
Draw | 4.10 | 4.28 | 23.3% |
Cagliari win | 6.10 | 6.37 | 15.7% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 and Over 2.5 are equally rated at 1.90. At 3.5, the market leans much more strongly towards Under 3.5 at 1.35, while Over 3.5 is available at 2.95.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 1.90 | 1.90 |
3.5 | 1.35 | 2.95 |
Handicap prediction
The home handicap (-1.5) is available at 2.55, while the away handicap (+1.5) is at 1.48. At the 1-goal line, the home handicap (-1) is 1.95 versus 1.85 for the away handicap (+1), while at handicap 0, the home Draw No Bet at 1.18 is substantially shorter than the away Draw No Bet at 4.05.
Home | Handicap | Away |
2.55 | -1.5 | — |
— | 1.5 | 1.48 |
1.95 | -1 | — |
— | 1 | 1.85 |
1.18 | 0 | 4.05 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - Yes is offered at 1.92 and Both teams to score - No at 1.83: the market has a slight preference for at least one team not scoring.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.92 |
No | 1.83 |
Double chance prediction
1X at 1.15 is the most likely double-chance outcome, 12 is 1.25, while X2 at 2.45 looks considerably less likely.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.15 | 1.25 | 2.45 |
Team total prediction
The bookmakers have set the following team totals for this match: Atalanta — 1.5 goals, Cagliari — 0.5 goals.
Atalanta team total
Atalanta team total: Under 0.5 is 5.90 and Over 0.5 is 1.08; Under 1 is 4.15 and Over 1 is 1.20. At 1.5, Under 1.5 is 2.07 versus 1.72 for Over 1.5, while at 2, Under 2 at 1.55 is favoured over Over 2 at 2.35.
Under | Team total | Over |
5.90 | 0.5 | 1.08 |
4.15 | 1 | 1.20 |
2.07 | 1.5 | 1.72 |
1.55 | 2 | 2.35 |
Cagliari team total
Cagliari team total: Under 0.5 is 2.10 and Over 0.5 is 1.70. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 at 1.40 is considerably shorter than Over 1 at 2.70, while Under 1.5 at 1.20 is substantially favoured over Over 1.5 at 4.15.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.10 | 0.5 | 1.70 |
1.40 | 1 | 2.70 |
1.20 | 1.5 | 4.15 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Alberto Arena (Italy)
Matches — 12 (Serie A, 2025/26);
Average fouls per match — 25;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows — 3.2;
Matches with red cards — 0 of 12;
Matches with penalties — 2 of 12.
