Odds overview
Atalanta BC are favourites: their win is around 1.80, while a draw is quoted at 4.15 and a Frosinone Calcio win at 4.00. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.38 is shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.80. For the main handicap, Atalanta BC Draw No Bet (0) at 1.37 is clearly favoured over Frosinone Calcio Draw No Bet (0) at 2.85.
Why Atalanta BC are match favourites
Bookmakers favour the hosts: an Atalanta BC win is offered at 1.80, a Frosinone Calcio win at 4.00 and a draw at 4.15.
- Ahead of the eighth round, Atalanta BC have 9 points from 7 matches and sit 11th in Serie A with a goal difference of 10:11.
- Frosinone Calcio concede an average of 1.29 goals per game in the current league campaign, suggesting the hosts will have attacking chances.
Form and Line-up Atalanta BC
In their most recent competitive match, in the UEFA Conference League on 22 October 2026, Atalanta BC lost 0:2 to Ajax, conceding both goals after the 86th minute. Atalanta BC managed just 1 shot on target to Ajax's 7, reflecting their difficulty creating chances.
Their cautious approach is also reflected in their Serie A statistics: Atalanta BC average 1.14 xG, the third-lowest figure in the competition. They have been disciplined at home, receiving fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in their last 10 home matches.
- Atalanta BC's opponents have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 home matches in Serie A.
- Atalanta BC's opponents have committed fewer than 13.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 home league matches.
- The total number of yellow cards has not exceeded 4.5 in Atalanta BC's last 10 home matches in Serie A.
Probable Atalanta BC line-up (4-2-3-1): Marco Carnesecchi, Raoul Bellanova, Thomas Kristensen, Sead Kolašinac, Lorenzo Bernasconi, Mario Pašalić, Ederson, Charles De Ketelaere, Lazar Samardžić, Jonathan Rowe, Nikola Krstović.
Form and Line-up Frosinone Calcio
On 16 October 2026, Frosinone Calcio beat Sassuolo 4:2 in Serie A thanks to an Antonio Raimondo hat-trick. The win showed their attacking potential in an individual match, but over the season they have allowed a high 2.23 expected goals against, the second-highest figure in the league.
In Frosinone Calcio's last 10 away matches in Serie A, their opponents have received more than 1.5 yellow cards on 9 occasions. Their matches have also featured plenty of overall activity — the two teams have combined for over 25.5 shot attempts in each of their last 10 league games.
- There have been fewer than 4.5 cards in 8 of Frosinone Calcio's last 10 away matches in Serie A.
- Frosinone Calcio have committed more than 11.5 fouls in 8 of their last 10 league matches.
- Frosinone Calcio have attempted more than 11.5 shots in 9 of their last 10 Serie A matches.
Probable Frosinone Calcio line-up (4-2-3-1): Lorenzo Palmisani, Anthony Oyono, Giorgio Cittadini, Ilario Monterisi, Gabriele Bracaglia, Giacomo Calò, Patrizio Masini, Fares Ghedjemis, Romano Schmid, Giorgi Kvernadze, Antonio Raimondo.
The teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Atalanta BC a 53.1% chance of winning: their average win odds are 1.80 and the fair odds are 1.88. A draw is rated at 23%, with average and fair odds of 4.15 and 4.34 respectively; a Frosinone Calcio win is rated at 23.9%, with odds of 4.00 and 4.19.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC to win | 1.80 | 1.88 | 53.1% |
| Draw | 4.15 | 4.34 | 23.0% |
| Frosinone Calcio to win | 4.00 | 4.19 | 23.9% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.38 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.80. At 3.5 goals, the odds are closer: Under 3.5 goals is 1.77 and Over 3.5 goals is 2.05.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.80 | 1.38 |
| 3.5 | 1.77 | 2.05 |
Handicap prediction
Atalanta BC (-1.5) are available at 2.65 and Frosinone Calcio (-1.5) at 6.40; on the 1.5 line, the odds are 1.07 for Atalanta BC (+1.5) and 1.42 for Frosinone Calcio (+1.5). For a -1 handicap, Atalanta BC (-1) are offered at 2.25 and Frosinone Calcio (-1) at 5.70; for a +1 handicap, the odds are 1.09 for Atalanta BC (+1) and 1.65 for Frosinone Calcio (+1). At the zero line, Atalanta BC Draw No Bet (0) at 1.37 is shorter than Frosinone Calcio Draw No Bet (0) at 2.85.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.65 | -1.5 | 6.40 |
| 1.07 | 1.5 | 1.42 |
| 2.25 | -1 | 5.70 |
| 1.09 | 1 | 1.65 |
| 1.37 | 0 | 2.85 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is available at 1.45, while Both teams to score — No is 2.65; the shorter odds suggest that both teams are expected to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.45 |
| No | 2.65 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
1/4
|
11/50
|
19/20
|
| 888sport |
11/50
|
11/50
|
21/20
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Atalanta BC — 2 goals, Frosinone Calcio — 1 goal.
Atalanta BC team total goals
Atalanta BC's team total: Under 0.5 goals is 6.20 and Over 0.5 goals is 1.07; at the 1.5-goal line, the respective odds are 2.40 and 1.55. At 2 goals, the odds are close: Under 2 is 1.80 and Over 2 is 1.95. At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is offered at 1.47 and Over 2.5 at 2.60.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 6.20 | 0.5 | 1.07 |
| 2.40 | 1.5 | 1.55 |
| 1.80 | 2 | 1.95 |
| 1.47 | 2.5 | 2.60 |
Frosinone Calcio team total goals
Frosinone Calcio's team total: Under 0.5 goals is available at 3.35 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.28. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is 2.20 against 1.63 for Over 1; at 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 is 1.55 and Over 1.5 is 2.35.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.35 | 0.5 | 1.28 |
| 2.20 | 1 | 1.63 |
| 1.55 | 1.5 | 2.35 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Livio Marinelli (Italy)
Matches — 9 (Serie A, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.6;
Matches with a red card — 2 of 9;
Matches with a penalty — 2 of 9.
