Odds Overview
Atalanta are clear favourites: Atalanta to win is around 1.53, compared with 4.40 for the draw and 6.00 for Sassuolo to win. In the main goals total, Over 2.5 goals at 1.70 is noticeably preferred to Under 2.5 goals at 2.17. On the handicap, Atalanta (-1) at 1.85 is rated slightly higher than Sassuolo (+1) at 1.95.
Why Atalanta Are Favourites for the Match
The bookmakers give the hosts a clear advantage: an Atalanta win is priced at 1.53 (62.4% margin-free probability). The draw is 4.40 (21.7%), while a Sassuolo win is 6.00 (15.9%).
- The Bergamo side had a confident summer spell under Maurizio Sarri, beating Schalke 04 3:0 and showing they are ready to move quickly to a new system.
- Personnel problems and uncertainty around Andrea Pinamonti and Kristian Thorstvedt weaken the visitors' attacking potential before the start of the tournament.
Form and Line-up Atalanta
The team go into the season with a new coach: Sarri took charge of the club in mid-June, replacing Palladino. In the summer, Atalanta kept Ederson, whose move to Manchester United collapsed after a medical, and the Brazilian was offered a new contract until 2031.
At home, the Bergamo side consistently suffocate opponents: in 9 of their last 10 league matches, opponents managed no more than 4 shots on target and made fewer than 13 attempts.
Key numbers:
In 9 of Atalanta's last 10 Serie A home matches, their opponents scored no more than 1 goal.
In 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions, their opponents still scored at least once.
In 9 of their last 10 league matches, their opponents took no more than 5 corners.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Marco Carnesecchi — Raoul Bellanova, Odilon Kossounou, Giorgio Scalvini, Lorenzo Bernasconi — Lazar Samardzic, Gianluca Gaetano, Ederson — Nicola Zalewski, Giacomo Raspadori, Gianluca Scamacca.
Absentees: Isak Hien (injury).
Form and Line-up Sassuolo
The visitors opened the season with a heavy win over Cesena (3:0) in the Coppa Italia — the first competitive match under Alberto Aquilani brought goals from Volpato, Adzic and Lipani.
In Serie A away matches, Sassuolo rarely get involved in shootouts: in 9 of their last 10 games, there were no more than three goals, although opponents regularly manage at least four shots on target.
Key numbers:
In 8 of Sassuolo's last 10 Serie A away matches, they scored no more than 1 goal.
In 8 of the team's last 10 matches, there were at least two goals.
In 9 of their last 10 league games, Sassuolo did not win the corner count.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Arijanet Muric — Simone Cinquegrano, Cas Odenthal, Tommaso Macchioni, Josh Doig — Vasilije Adzic, Nemanja Matic, Daryl Bakola — Cristian Volpato, Kieron Bowie, Armand Lauriente.
Absentees: Ismael Kone (injury). Domenico Berardi is doubtful
Teams' Chances
Atalanta to win is offered at 1.53; the margin-free estimate is 1.60 and the probability is 62.4%. The draw is 4.40, with a margin-free estimate of 4.61 and a probability of 21.7%, while Sassuolo to win is 6.00, 6.29 and 15.9% respectively: the market clearly singles out the hosts.
Outcome | Average odds | Average margin-free odds | Margin-free probability |
Atalanta to win | 1.53 | 1.60 | 62.4% |
Draw | 4.40 | 4.61 | 21.7% |
Sassuolo to win | 6.00 | 6.29 | 15.9% |
Goals Total Prediction
On the 2.5 line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.70 is preferred to Under 2.5 goals at 2.17. At the 3.5 mark, the balance changes: Under 3.5 goals is 1.48, while Over 3.5 goals is 2.55.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.17 | 1.70 |
3.5 | 1.48 | 2.55 |
Handicap Prediction
Atalanta (-1.5) is available at 2.35, while Sassuolo (+1.5) is 1.55, which gives stronger support to the visitors with that handicap. On the one-goal line, Atalanta (-1) is 1.85 against 1.95 for Sassuolo (+1). The Draw No Bet market is also clearly on the hosts' side: Atalanta (0) is 1.18, Sassuolo (0) is 4.10.
Hosts | Handicap | Visitors |
2.35 | -1.5 | — |
— | 1.5 | 1.55 |
1.85 | -1 | — |
— | 1 | 1.95 |
1.18 | 0 | 4.10 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.78 is rated slightly higher than Both teams to score — No at 1.98. The second option implies that at least one of the teams will not score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.78 |
No | 1.98 |
Double Chance Prediction
The most expected double chance is 1X at 1.15. The 12 option is priced at 1.23, while X2 at 2.50 is noticeably less likely.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.15 | 1.23 | 2.50 |
Team Goals Prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Atalanta — 2 goals, Sassuolo — 0.5 goals.
Atalanta Team Total
Atalanta: Over 0.5 goals at 1.06 is significantly preferred to Under 0.5 goals at 6.80. On the 1.5 line, Over 1.5 goals is 1.55 against 2.35 for Under 1.5 goals; at the 2 mark, Under 2 goals is 1.73 against Over 2 goals at 2.05. For the 2.5 line, the market gives stronger support to Under 2.5 goals at 1.40 than Over 2.5 goals at 2.70.
Under | Team total | Over |
6.80 | 0.5 | 1.06 |
2.35 | 1.5 | 1.55 |
1.73 | 2 | 2.05 |
1.40 | 2.5 | 2.70 |
Sassuolo Team Total
Sassuolo: Over 0.5 goals at 1.60 is preferred to Under 0.5 goals at 2.25. On the 1 line, Under 1 goal is 1.52 against 2.45 for Over 1 goal, while at the 1.5 mark, Under 1.5 goals at 1.25 is noticeably lower than Over 1.5 goals at 3.45.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.25 | 0.5 | 1.60 |
1.52 | 1 | 2.45 |
1.25 | 1.5 | 3.45 |
