Odds overview
Atalanta are clear favourites: an Atalanta win is available at 1.57, while the draw is 4.20 and a Venezia win 5.80. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.55 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.35. In the main handicap market, Atalanta (-1) at 1.90 is rated much more likely than Venezia (-1) at 7.10.
Why Atalanta are favourites
The bookmakers give Atalanta a clear advantage: an Atalanta win is available at 1.57, the draw at 4.20 and a Venezia win at 5.80.
• Venezia have regularly struggled away from home and have won none of their last 10 away matches in Serie A.
• The visitors' defensive inconsistency has affected their results: they concede an average of 2.6 goals per league match.
Form and Line-up Atalanta
Atalanta had a mixed run of results in September. In late August, they beat Bologna (1:0) in Serie A and Hapoel Tel Aviv (1:0) in the UEFA Conference League. They then suffered three consecutive league defeats — against AS Roma (1:2), Cagliari (1:2) and Juventus (0:2).
Atalanta resumed training on 6 October after two days off. Franck Kessié and Lazar Samardžić have rejoined group training after returning from international duty.
- Under 3.5 goals has landed in 9 of Atalanta's last 10 home matches in Serie A.
- Atalanta's opponents have taken fewer than 5.5 corners in each of their last 10 home matches in Serie A.
- Atalanta have received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in each of their last 10 home matches in Serie A.
Probable line-up: Marco Carnesecchi, Lazar Samardžić, Jonathan Rowe, Ederson, Raoul Bellanova, Charles De Ketelaere, Franck Kessié, Thomas Kristensen, Giorgio Scalvini, Lorenzo Bernasconi, Nikola Krstović
Isak Hien and Ibrahim Sulemana are limited in training, Odilon Kossounou and Giacomo Raspadori are receiving treatment, and Thomas Pompei is recovering from surgery.
Form and Line-up Venezia
Venezia have had a difficult start to the season and have yet to find consistency. They have lost four consecutive league matches — against AC Milan (0:2), Frosinone (2:3), Fiorentina (2:4) and Lazio (0:2). Venezia were also knocked out of the Coppa Italia in early September after losing to Udinese (1:2).
- Venezia's opponents have had more than 3.5 shots on target in 9 of Venezia's last 10 away matches in Serie A.
- Venezia have attempted fewer than 13.5 shots in 9 of their last 10 away matches in Serie A.
- Venezia have taken fewer than 5.5 corners in 8 of their last 10 away matches in Serie A.
Probable line-up: Lorenzo Montipò, Joël Schingtienne, Armel Bella-Kotchap, Redouane Halhal, Thierry Correia, Gianluca Busio, Kike Pérez, Thórir Helgason, Ridgeciano Haps, John Yeboah, Akor Adams
The teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Atalanta a 60.8% chance of winning: the average odds are 1.57 and the fair odds 1.64. The draw has a 22.7% chance, with average odds of 4.20 and fair odds of 4.40; a Venezia win has a 16.5% chance, with odds of 5.80 and 6.08 respectively.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta to win | 1.57 | 1.64 | 60.8% |
| Draw | 4.20 | 4.40 | 22.7% |
| Venezia to win | 5.80 | 6.08 | 16.5% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.55 has much shorter odds than Under 2.5 goals at 2.35. At 3.5 goals, the market instead favours Under 3.5 goals at 1.60 over Over 3.5 goals at 2.35.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.35 | 1.55 |
| 3.5 | 1.60 | 2.35 |
Handicap prediction
At the -1.5 handicap line, Atalanta (-1.5) are offered at 2.40 and Venezia (-1.5) at 8.50. At a handicap of 1, Atalanta (+1) have shorter odds at 1.04 than Venezia (+1) at 1.55. At -1, Atalanta (-1) at 1.90 are much more favoured than Venezia (-1) at 7.10; at the 1 line, Atalanta (+1) are offered at 1.05 and Venezia (+1) at 1.90. With a handicap of 0, Atalanta (0) are at 1.20 and Venezia (0) at 4.15.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.40 | -1.5 | 8.50 |
| 1.04 | 1.5 | 1.55 |
| 1.90 | -1 | 7.10 |
| 1.05 | 1 | 1.90 |
| 1.20 | 0 | 4.15 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.60 is favoured over Both teams to score — No at 2.25: the latter means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.60 |
| No | 2.25 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
7/50
|
11/50
|
13/10
|
| 888sport |
3/20
|
1/5
|
7/5
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Atalanta — 2 goals; Venezia — 1 goal.
Atalanta team total goals
For Atalanta's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.06 has much shorter odds than Under 0.5 goals at 6.70. At the 1.5-goal line, Over 1.5 goals is available at 1.53, against 2.45 for Under 1.5 goals. At 2 goals, the odds are close: Under 2 goals is 1.83 and Over 2 goals is 1.93. At 2.5 goals, Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 1.48, while Over 2.5 goals is 2.55.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 6.70 | 0.5 | 1.06 |
| 2.45 | 1.5 | 1.53 |
| 1.83 | 2 | 1.93 |
| 1.48 | 2.5 | 2.55 |
Venezia team total goals
For Venezia's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.48 is favoured over Under 0.5 goals at 2.55. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal at 1.67 has shorter odds than Over 1 goal at 2.13, while at 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 goals at 1.30 is favoured over Over 1.5 goals at 3.15.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.55 | 0.5 | 1.48 |
| 1.67 | 1 | 2.13 |
| 1.30 | 1.5 | 3.15 |
