Odds Overview
Brest are slight favourites: the away win is available at 2.45, compared with 2.80 for an Auxerre win, while the draw is 3.60. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals is 1.78, while Under 2.5 goals is 2.05. In the handicap market, Brest Draw No Bet at 1.78 looks more attractive than Auxerre Draw No Bet at 2.05.
Why Brest Are Favourites
Brest to win is available at 2.45, Auxerre to win at 2.80, and the draw at 3.60.
- The visitors' status is supported by their efficiency in creating chances: in the Ligue 1 pre-match snapshot, Brest rank second in the competition for xG (2.38).
- Their opponents have made a poor start: Auxerre are 15th after four rounds, with 3 points and a goal difference of 5:11.
Form and Line-up Auxerre
Auxerre began the campaign with three defeats to Lens (2:5), Angers (1:3) and Lyon (1:3), but claimed their first win of the season in their latest match, beating Nice 1:0 at home. The team have also remained disciplined in duels on home soil: the hosts received no more than two yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 home matches in Ligue 1.
- In 8 of Auxerre's last 10 home matches in Ligue 1, their opponents scored no more than one goal.
- No more than three goals were scored in 8 of Auxerre's last 10 home games in Ligue 1.
- At least 9 corners were taken in 9 of Auxerre's last 10 home matches in Ligue 1.
Probable Auxerre line-up (3-4-3): Mamadou Diop, Christ Makosso, Axel Tuanzebe, Clement Akpa, Lamine Sy, Kevin Danois, Arthur Piedfort, Fredrik Oppegard, Danny Namaso, Cameron Archer, Ryan Labo-Lascary.
Bryan Okoh, Telli Siwe, Marvin Senaya and Assane Diousse will not play. Sekou Fofana is doubtful.
Form and Line-up Brest
Brest narrowly lost to Paris Saint-Germain (0:1) in the previous round, having earlier beaten Le Havre (2:1) and drawn with Toulouse (2:2) and Le Mans (2:2). Their away matches have also featured sustained pressure on their goal: opponents registered at least 4 shots on target in Brest's last 10 away games in Ligue 1.
- Brest have failed to win 9 of their last 10 Ligue 1 matches.
- At least 10 corners were taken in 9 of Brest's last 10 away matches in Ligue 1.
- No more than 4 yellow cards were shown in 9 of Brest's last 10 away matches in Ligue 1.
Probable Brest line-up (4-2-3-1): Egil Selvik, Kenny Lala, Raphael Le Guen, Gautier Lloris, Bradley Locko, Joris Chotard, Hugo Magnetti, Giovani Versini, Kamory Doumbia, Pathe Mboup, Ludovic Ajorque.
Brendan Chardonnet and Noah Edjouma will be unavailable. Mamady Diambou and Mama Balde remain doubtful.
Team Chances
Based on the no-margin assessment, Brest have a 39.1% probability of winning, with average odds of 2.45 and fair odds of 2.56. An Auxerre win is assessed at 34.2%: 2.80 and 2.92 respectively. The draw has a 26.6% probability, with odds of 3.60 and 3.76.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre win | 2.80 | 2.92 | 34.2% |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.76 | 26.6% |
| Brest win | 2.45 | 2.56 | 39.1% |
Total Goals Prediction
At the 2.5 line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.78 is shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.05. At the 3.5 line, Under 3.5 goals becomes the favourite at 1.40, compared with 2.70 for Over 3.5 goals.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.05 | 1.78 |
| 3.5 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Handicap Prediction
Auxerre (-1.5) is available at 4.70 and Brest (-1.5) at 4.30; at the +1.5 handicap, the odds are close: Auxerre (+1.5) at 1.16 and Brest (+1.5) at 1.13. At the -1 line, Brest (-1) at 3.65 is shorter than Auxerre (-1) at 4.30, while at +1, Brest (+1) is 1.20 compared with 1.25 for Auxerre (+1). In the Draw No Bet market, Brest at 1.78 is preferred to Auxerre at 2.05.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.70 | -1.5 | 4.30 |
| 1.16 | 1.5 | 1.13 |
| 4.30 | -1 | 3.65 |
| 1.25 | 1 | 1.20 |
| 2.05 | 0 | 1.78 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score - Yes is available at 1.63 and is shorter than Both teams to score - No at 2.20, the option in which at least one team does not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.63 |
| No | 2.20 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
53/100
|
29/100
|
2/5
|
| 888sport |
53/100
|
3/10
|
11/25
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team Total Goals Prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Auxerre — 1 goal, Brest — 1.5 goals.
Auxerre Team Total
Auxerre team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.27 is notably shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 3.40. At the 1-goal line, Over 1 is 1.57 compared with 2.35 for Under 1, while at 1.5 the odds are reversed: Under 1.5 is 1.57 and Over 1.5 is 2.35.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.40 | 0.5 | 1.27 |
| 2.35 | 1 | 1.57 |
| 1.57 | 1.5 | 2.35 |
Brest Team Total
Brest team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.23 is shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 3.80, while Over 1 is 1.45 compared with 2.60 for Under 1. At the 1.5 line, Under 1.5 is 1.65 and Over 1.5 is 2.15; at the 2-goal line, Under 2 is available at 1.25 and Over 2 at 3.50.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.80 | 0.5 | 1.23 |
| 2.60 | 1 | 1.45 |
| 1.65 | 1.5 | 2.15 |
| 1.25 | 2 | 3.50 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Guillaume Paradis (France)
Matches — 16 (Ligue 1, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 24;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows — 3.7;
Matches with red cards — 1 of 16;
Matches with penalties — 1 of 16.
