Odds overview
In the source odds, Auxerre to win is available at 2.55, Nice to win at 2.80, and the draw at 3.40. There is little difference in the 2.5-goal total market: Under 2.5 is offered at 1.87 and Over 2.5 at 1.93. In the Draw No Bet market, Auxerre at 1.83 is shorter than Nice at 1.97.
Why Auxerre are favourites
In the quoted market, Auxerre to win is available at 2.55. The draw is at 3.40 and a Nice win at 2.80.
- Nice have not won any of their opening three Ligue 1 matches: they drew 0:0 with Lorient and 1:1 with Le Mans, and lost 0:3 to Paris between those draws.
- Auxerre have started even worse, losing all three matches: 2:5 to Lens, 1:3 to Angers and 1:3 to Lyon. It is not form that makes the hosts slight favourites, but rather home advantage and their opponents' weak start.
Auxerre form and line-up
Will Still took charge of Auxerre in the summer. Les Bourguignons beat Werder Bremen 1:0 in their final pre-season friendly, but began the league campaign with three defeats. After three rounds, they have no points, a goal difference of 4:11 and sit 18th.
Their defence has been poor so far: 11 goals conceded is an average of 3.67 per game. After three rounds, that is the worst record in Ligue 1.
Key numbers:
- In 9 of Auxerre's last 10 home Ligue 1 matches, the teams have taken at least 9 corners.
- In 8 of Auxerre's last 10 home Ligue 1 matches, the teams have registered at least 8 shots on target.
- Auxerre have committed at least 12 fouls in 8 of their last 10 Ligue 1 matches.
Probable Auxerre line-up (4-3-3): Diop, Siwe, Makosso, Legros, Akpa, Piedfort, Danois, Ahamada, Labo-Lascary, Archer, Namaso
Nice form and line-up
Olivier Pantaloni took charge of Nice in the summer, with the squad significantly reshaped during the close season. The manager has yet to find a solution in attack. The team failed to score in 90 minutes in friendlies against Cagliari and Hull City, drawing 0:0 on both occasions.
There has been no improvement in the league: one goal in three rounds, or 0.33 per match. That is currently the worst scoring record in Ligue 1.
Key numbers:
- In 9 of Nice's last 10 away Ligue 1 matches, the teams have registered no more than 9 shots on target in total.
- Nice's opponents have been caught offside no more than once in 9 of their last 10 away Ligue 1 matches.
- In each of their last 10 Ligue 1 matches, Nice have received no more than two yellow cards.
Probable Nice line-up (5-2-3): Diouf, Clauss, Abdelmonem, Ndayishimiye, Mendy, Nkunku, Witsel, Coulibaly, Nguene, Wahi, Diop
Melvin Bard has joined Leeds on loan from Nice and will not play in this match.
Team chances
After removing the margin, the probability of an Auxerre win is 37.6%, a draw 28.2%, and a Nice win 34.2%. This translates into fair odds of 2.66, 3.55 and 2.92. The hosts have an edge, but only a very small one.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre to win | 2.55 | 2.66 | 37.6% |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.55 | 28.2% |
| Nice to win | 2.80 | 2.92 | 34.2% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 is available at 1.87 and Over 2.5 at 1.93. Essentially, the market sees no clear lean either way. The difference is more substantial at the 3.5 line: Under 3.5 is at 1.33 and Over 3.5 at 3.05. Four or more goals are considered a significantly less likely scenario.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.87 | 1.93 |
| 3.5 | 1.33 | 3.05 |
Handicap prediction
Auxerre (-1.5) is offered at 4.70 and Nice (-1.5) at 5.10. With a positive 1.5 handicap, the odds are almost identical: Auxerre (+1.5) at 1.12 and Nice (+1.5) at 1.13. Auxerre (-1) is at 4.15 and Nice (-1) at 4.30; the +1 handicap options are 1.17 and 1.20 respectively. In the Draw No Bet market, Auxerre are quoted at 1.83 and Nice at 1.97.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.70 | -1.5 | 5.10 |
| 1.12 | 1.5 | 1.13 |
| 4.15 | -1 | 4.30 |
| 1.17 | 1 | 1.20 |
| 1.83 | 0 | 1.97 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - Yes is available at 1.72 and No at 2.07. On these odds, the bookmaker considers both teams scoring more likely, although the teams' early results offer little confidence in that outcome.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.72 |
| No | 2.07 |
Double chance prediction
The shortest double-chance odds are on 12 — 1.35. 1X is available at 1.47 and X2 at 1.53. That means the home win or draw option is rated slightly more highly than the equivalent outcome for the visitors.
| 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|
47/100
|
7/20
|
53/100
|
Team total prediction
The markets include an Auxerre team total of 1.5 goals and a Nice team total of 1 goal.
Auxerre team total
At the 0.5 line, Under is at 3.45 and Over at 1.25: the hosts are confidently expected to score at least once. For a total of 1, the odds are 2.45 for Under and 1.52 for Over. At the 1.5 mark, Under is available at 1.58 and Over at 2.30; at the 2 line, the respective odds are 1.20 and 4.15.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.45 | 0.5 | 1.25 |
| 2.45 | 1 | 1.52 |
| 1.58 | 1.5 | 2.30 |
| 1.20 | 2 | 4.15 |
Nice team total
Nice Under 0.5 is quoted at 3.20 and Over 0.5 at 1.30: the market expects an away goal. For a total of 1, Under is at 2.15 and Over at 1.67. At the 1.5 mark, the difference is reversed: Under is available at 1.50 and Over at 2.50. The market does not particularly expect Nice to score more than one goal.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.20 | 0.5 | 1.30 |
| 2.15 | 1 | 1.67 |
| 1.50 | 1.5 | 2.50 |
