Odds overview
Azerbaijan are clear favourites, with a home win available at 1.17, while the draw and a Liechtenstein win are quoted at around 6.80 and 16.00. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals is favoured at 1.60, compared with 2.22 for Under 2.5 goals. Azerbaijan (-1.5) are available at 1.54, while Liechtenstein (-1.5) are quoted at 2.34.
Why Azerbaijan are favourites
Bookmakers strongly favour the hosts: an Azerbaijan win is offered at 1.17, the draw at 6.80 and a Liechtenstein win at 16.00.
• The hosts come into the match after a 1:0 friendly win over Tajikistan and a 1:1 draw with Lithuania in the UEFA Nations League, while Liechtenstein have won none of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
• The visitors offer very little in attack: after the opening rounds, Liechtenstein rank second-bottom among 54 teams with 0.07 xG.
Form and Line-up Azerbaijan
Head coach Aykhan Abbasov has named a squad for all four matches in the international window, relying on a settled group. In the first two matches, Azerbaijan's opponents managed seven shots on target in total.
Ahead of Matchday 3 of the UEFA Nations League, Azerbaijan's matches stand out for their slow pace: a combined 18.0 shots per match ranks second-bottom among 54 teams.
- Azerbaijan scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 away matches in the UEFA Nations League.
- The total number of goals did not exceed 3.5 in 8 of Azerbaijan's last 10 away matches in the UEFA Nations League.
- More than 7.5 corners were taken in 8 of Azerbaijan's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable line-up (5-4-1): Emil Balayev, Tellur Mutallimov, Rakhil Mammadov, Badawi Huseynov, Rahman Dashdamirov, Rüfat Abbasov, Mahir Emreli, Abdulakh Khaybulayev, Rufat Abdullazade, Aleksey Isayev, Musa Qurbanly
Form and Line-up Liechtenstein
Liechtenstein head coach Konrad Fünfstück has publicly highlighted the demanding schedule of four matches in two weeks, which requires squad rotation. This unusual schedule comes alongside a passive approach in attack: Liechtenstein have not outshot their opponents in any of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Fewer than 2.5 goals were scored in 8 of Liechtenstein's last 10 home matches in the UEFA Nations League.
- Liechtenstein took fewer than 3.5 corners in all of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Liechtenstein had fewer than 11.5 shots, including blocked attempts, in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable line-up (5-3-2): Benjamin Büchel, Emanuel Zünd, Maximilian Göppel, Lars Traber, Marcel Büchel, Jonas Weissenhofer, Nicolas Hasler, Aron Sele, Alessio Hasler, Fabio Luque-Notaro, Ferhat Saglam
The teams' chances
An Azerbaijan win is offered at 1.17, with fair odds of 1.25 and a probability of 80.3%. The draw is available at 6.80, with fair odds of 7.24 and a probability of 13.8%; a Liechtenstein win is offered at 16.00, with fair odds of 17.03 and a probability of 5.9%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Azerbaijan win | 1.17 | 1.25 | 80.3% |
| Draw | 6.80 | 7.24 | 13.8% |
| Liechtenstein win | 16.00 | 17.03 | 5.9% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals is favoured at 1.60, compared with 2.22 for Under 2.5 goals. At the 2-goal line, Over 2 goals is available at 1.26 and Under 2 goals at 3.45; at 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 goals is quoted at 1.48 and Over 3.5 goals at 2.49.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.22 | 1.60 |
| 2 | 3.45 | 1.26 |
| 3.5 | 1.48 | 2.49 |
Handicap prediction
Azerbaijan (-1.5) at 1.54 are favoured considerably more strongly than Liechtenstein (-1.5) at 2.34.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.54 | -1.5 | 2.34 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
1/100
|
1/10
|
7/2
|
| 888sport |
1/50
|
11/100
|
19/5
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Azerbaijan — 2.5 goals, Liechtenstein — 0.5 goals.
Azerbaijan team total goals
For Azerbaijan's team total, Over 0.5 goals is quoted at 1.04, compared with 7.40 for Under 0.5 goals. At the 2-goal line, Over 2 goals is available at 1.47 and Under 2 goals at 2.55; at 2.5 goals, Under 2.5 goals at 1.78 is slightly favoured over Over 2.5 goals at 1.96. At the 3-goal line, Under 3 goals is offered at 1.45 and Over 3 goals at 2.65.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 7.40 | 0.5 | 1.04 |
| 2.55 | 2 | 1.47 |
| 1.78 | 2.5 | 1.96 |
| 1.45 | 3 | 2.65 |
Liechtenstein team total goals
For Liechtenstein's team total, Under 0.5 goals is offered at 1.52, compared with 2.39 for Over 0.5 goals. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals is quoted at 1.05 and Over 1.5 goals at 6.90.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.52 | 0.5 | 2.39 |
| 1.05 | 1.5 | 6.90 |
