The first leg of the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League semi-final between Barcelona (Spain) and Inter (Italy) will take place on April 29 at the Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys. Barcelona vs. Inter: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Barcelona
Hans Flick's side overcame two rounds in the playoffs to reach the semi-finals. First, Barcelona defeated Benfica twice (1-0 and 3-1), and then they were stronger than Borussia Dortmund over two legs (4-0, 1-3). The defeat in the return leg against the Germans marked the team's first loss in their last 11 Champions League matches (9 wins, 1 draw). Notably, the club has been highly prolific, leading the current edition of this European competition in goals scored (37). Additionally, Barcelona's goal-scoring streak in the Champions League has reached 18 matches.
- The team has won in regular time in 8 of their last 11 home matches in the Champions League.
- At least three goals have been scored in 14 of the club's last home matches in this European competition.
- Both opponents scored in regular time in 7 of Barcelona's last 10 home matches in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Barcelona (4-2-3-1)
Wojciech Szczesny – Jules Kounde, Ronald Araujo, Pau Cubarsi, Gerard Martin – Frenkie de Jong, Gavi – Lamine Yamal, Dani Olmo, Raphinha Dias – Ferran Torres.
Defender Alex Balde, along with midfielders Marc Bernal and Marc Casado, will miss the match due to injuries. Forward Robert Lewandowski is also sidelined with an injury.
Inter
Like their opponents, the Milanese started in the playoffs from the round of 16, where they faced Feyenoord. Simone Inzaghi's side confidently advanced past the Dutch team, winning both matches (2-0 and 2-1). The team then faced Bayern Munich: Inter won the first leg 2-1 away and maintained their advantage at home (2-2). The draw in the return leg ended the club's five-match winning streak in the Champions League. Notably, the Italians have been solid defensively, leading the current edition of this European competition in the fewest goals conceded (5).
- The club has not lost in regular time in 8 of their last 10 away matches in the Champions League (5 wins, 3 draws).
- No more than two goals have been scored in 12 of the team's last 15 away matches in this European competition.
- At least one of the opponents failed to score in regular time in 5 of Inter's last 6 away matches in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Inter (3-5-2)
Yann Sommer – Yann Bisseck, Alessandro Bastoni, Francesco Acerbi – Federico Dimarco, Hakan Calhanoglu, Nicolo Barella, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Matteo Darmian – Lautaro Martinez, Mehdi Taremi.
Defender Benjamin Pavard is unavailable due to injury. However, forward Marcus Thuram has recovered in time for the upcoming match.
Referee
Clement Turpin (France)
Matches – 15 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 45;
Average yellow cards per match – 3;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 21;
Penalties – 53%.
Barcelona vs. Inter: Match Prediction
The Catalans will aim to capitalize on their home advantage in the first leg and create a comfortable lead ahead of the return fixture. At home, Barcelona is very strong and has only faltered once in the current Champions League campaign, drawing with Atalanta (2-2), while they emerged victorious in the other encounters. Notably, in 4 of their 5 home matches in this season's Champions League, the Catalans won by a large margin.
Inter has shown good results on the road in the current Champions League, securing four wins in six matches, but only once did Simone Inzaghi's side defeat a truly strong opponent (2-1 against Bayern Munich). Additionally, in head-to-head encounters with Barcelona on their turf in this European competition, the Milanese have always struggled: in the last six meetings, they suffered five defeats and drew once. In four instances, the Italians failed to score against the Catalans.
I see the hosts as favorites for the upcoming match, so my prediction: Barcelona to Win
