Odds overview
Bayer Leverkusen are clear favourites: a home win is available at 1.15, while the draw and an away win are quoted at 8.60 and 15.00. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.26 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 3.45. In the handicap market, Bayer Leverkusen (-1.5) at 1.61 looks more likely than Celje (-1.5) at 2.20.
Why Bayer Leverkusen are favourites for the match
The bookmakers give the hosts an emphatic advantage: a Bayer Leverkusen win is quoted at 1.15, the draw is available at 8.60, and a Celje victory is offered at 15.00.
• The hosts regularly create and convert chances: Bayer Leverkusen have scored at least one goal in 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
• The gap in quality and current form is underlined by recent results: Celje head into the European fixture after losing to Bravo in their most recent competitive match.
Form and Line-up Bayer Leverkusen
In their most recent Bundesliga match, Bayer Leverkusen drew 2:2 with Augsburg, with Patrik Schick levelling late on after coming off the bench. Bayer Leverkusen's attack generated 2.10 xG, creating enough clear chances to win.
Moussa Diaby has returned to the squad after first dropping out of the starting line-up before the transfer window closed. Head coach Carles Martinez is reshaping the team to play with four defenders rather than five, changing the defensive structure at the start of the European campaign.
- In 9 of their last 10 home matches in all competitions, Bayer Leverkusen's opponents have taken no more than 4 corners.
- In 8 of their last 10 home matches in all competitions, Bayer Leverkusen have committed no more than 11 fouls.
- In 8 of their last 10 home matches in all competitions, Bayer Leverkusen have taken more corners than their opponents.
Probable Bayer Leverkusen line-up: Mark Flekken, Jarell Quansah, Edmond Tapsoba, Facundo Medina, Miguel Gutierrez, Ezequiel Fernandez, Aleix Garcia, Moussa Diaby, Ibrahim Maza, A. Bastardu Moreira, Christian Kofane
Victor Boniface has not been included in the Europa League squad.
Form and Line-up Celje
Celje's away matches rarely turn into chaotic shoot-outs: no more than five goals have been scored in 8 of their last 10 away matches in all competitions.
The Slovenian club maintain a restrained level of aggression away from home, committing no more than 13 fouls in 8 of their last 10 away matches.
- In 9 of their last 10 away matches in all competitions, Celje's opponents have taken no more than 5 corners.
- In 8 of their last 10 home matches in all competitions, Celje and their opponents have scored no more than 3 goals.
- Celje have scored at least one goal in 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable Celje line-up: Z. Leban, L. Koutres, A. Tutyskinas, D. Hrka, P. Sirvys, P. Daniel, M. Zabukovnik, M. Kvesic, M. Ivansek, B. Verbic, B. Kramer
Team chances
A home win at 1.15 corresponds to fair odds of 1.21 and an 82.6% probability. The draw is offered at 8.60, with fair odds of 9.05 and an 11.0% probability, while an away win is available at 15.00, 15.79 and 6.3% respectively: the market clearly favours Bayer Leverkusen.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen to win | 1.15 | 1.21 | 82.6% |
| Draw | 8.60 | 9.05 | 11.0% |
| Celje to win | 15.00 | 15.79 | 6.3% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5 line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.26 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 3.45. The advantage is even clearer for a total of 2: Over 2 goals at 1.08 versus Under 2 goals at 5.90. At 3.5, the market moderately favours Over 3.5 goals at 1.68, while Under 3.5 goals is available at 2.09.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 3.45 | 1.26 |
| 2 | 5.90 | 1.08 |
| 3.5 | 2.09 | 1.68 |
Handicap prediction
Bayer Leverkusen (-1.5) at 1.61 is quoted lower than Celje (-1.5) at 2.20, indicating a preference for a Bayer Leverkusen handicap bet.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.61 | -1.5 | 2.20 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
1/100
|
1/25
|
10/1
|
| William Hill |
1/25
|
2/25
|
19/5
|
| 888sport |
1/100
|
3/100
|
9/1
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Bayer Leverkusen — 2.5 goals; Celje — 0.5 goals.
Bayer Leverkusen team total
Bayer Leverkusen team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.03 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 7.90, while Over 1.5 goals at 1.16 is shorter than Under 1.5 goals at 4.40. At the 2.5 line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.54 is shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.34; at 3.5, the relationship is reversed — Under 3.5 goals at 1.54 versus Over 3.5 goals at 2.34.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 7.90 | 0.5 | 1.03 |
| 4.40 | 1.5 | 1.16 |
| 2.34 | 2.5 | 1.54 |
| 1.54 | 3.5 | 2.34 |
Celje team total
Celje team total: at the 0.5 line, Over 0.5 goals at 1.72 is slightly shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 2.03. At 1.5, Under 1.5 goals at 1.17 is considerably shorter than Over 1.5 goals at 4.25, while at 2.5, Under 2.5 goals at 1.02 stands out sharply against Over 2.5 goals at 8.40.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.03 | 0.5 | 1.72 |
| 1.17 | 1.5 | 4.25 |
| 1.02 | 2.5 | 8.40 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Jasper Vergoote (Belgium)
Matches — 8 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 26;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows — 3.5;
Matches with red cards — 1 of 8;
Matches with penalties — 2 of 8.
