Belarus vs Finland: prediction & betting odds 6 October 2026

Odds overview

Finland are favourites to win at 2.05, while Belarus to win and the draw are available at around 3.30 and 3.55 respectively. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.77 is favoured over Over 2.5 goals at 1.97. At handicap (0), Finland at 1.51 are considerably more likely than Belarus at 2.41.

Why Finland are favourites

Bookmakers favour the visitors: Finland are available to win at 2.05, while the nominal hosts are offered at 3.30. The draw is available at 3.55.

• Finland beat Albania 2:1 in the latest round of the UEFA Nations League, strengthening their position in the standings.
• Belarus previously lost 0:2 away to Albania in the competition.

Form and Line-up Belarus

Belarus beat San Marino 4:0 in the third round of the UEFA Nations League, having previously drawn 0:0 away to Finland.

• Under 2.5 goals were scored in 9 of Belarus's last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
• Belarus scored no more than one goal in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
• Belarus's opponents scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.

Probable Belarus line-up (4-2-3-1): Pavel Pavlyuchenko, Roman Begunov, Zakhar Volkov, Kirill Gomanov, Kirill Pechenin, Eugeniy Yablonskiy, Max Ebong, Anton Kontsevoy, Valery Gromyko, Timofey Simanenka, Trofim Melnichenko.

Form and Line-up Finland

Finland thrashed San Marino 7:0 away, but after their goalless draw with Belarus, the team acknowledged difficulties getting the ball into the opposition penalty area.

• Finland's opponents scored fewer than 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
• Finland scored no more than two goals in 8 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.

Probable Finland line-up (4-3-3): Lukáš Hrádecký, Adam Ståhl, Tony Miettinen, Samuli Miettinen, Juho Lähteenmäki, Kaan Kairinen, Adam Markhiev, Leo Walta, Adrian Svanbäck, Joel Pohjanpalo, Daniel Håkans.

Robin Lod is injured and has left the national team camp.

The teams' chances

Finland to win has a margin-free probability of 45.5%: the average odds are 2.05 and the fair odds are 2.20. For Belarus to win, the corresponding figures are 28.3%, 3.30 and 3.54; for the draw, they are 26.3%, 3.55 and 3.81.

Total goals prediction

At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 at 1.77 has shorter odds than Over 2.5 at 1.97. At the 2-goal line, Over 2 at 1.49 is favoured over Under 2 at 2.46; at 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 at 1.28 is favoured over Over 3.5 at 3.30.

Handicap prediction

Finland with a handicap (0) are quoted at 1.51, considerably shorter than Belarus with a handicap (0) at 2.41, indicating an advantage for the visitors in the zero-handicap market.

Double chance forecast

Bookmaker	1X	12	X2
Bet365	73/100	33/100	1/4
888sport	3/4	9/25	11/50

Odds are current as of the material publication date

Team total goals prediction

Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Belarus — 0.5 goals; Finland — 1.5 goals.

Belarus team total goals

For Belarus's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.43 is favoured over Under 0.5 at 2.63. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 at 1.34 has shorter odds than Over 1.5 at 2.98; at 2.5 goals, Under 2.5 is 1.06 against 6.50 for Over 2.5.

Finland team total goals

For Finland's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.23 has considerably shorter odds than Under 0.5 at 3.65. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 at 1.66 is shorter than Over 1.5 at 2.12; at 2.5 goals, Under 2.5 is 1.17 against 4.25 for Over 2.5.

Who Will Referee the Match

Sascha Stegemann (Germany)

Matches — 8 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);

Average fouls per match — 25;

Average yellow cards per match (including second yellow cards) — 3.5;

Matches with a red card — 1 out of 8;

Matches with a penalty — 3 out of 8.