Odds overview
Brest are slight favourites: a home win is offered at 2.25, while the draw and a Nice win are around 3.40 and 3.25 respectively. In the main 2.5-goal totals market, Over 2.5 at 1.72 is favoured over Under 2.5 at 2.12. Brest Draw No Bet, with a handicap of 0, is shorter at 1.62 than Nice Draw No Bet, also with a handicap of 0, at 2.30.
Why Brest are favourites
The bookmakers favour the hosts: a Brest win is offered at 2.25, a Nice win at 3.25 and the draw at 3.40.
- Brest create more attacking threat than their opponents: with an xG of 2.07, the Breton side rank among the league's top three teams.
- Nice rarely win away from home: they have failed to win 9 of their last 10 away matches in Ligue 1.
- Nice create considerably less in attack: with an xG of 1.19, they rank among the league's bottom three teams.
Form and Line-up Brest
In the previous round, Brest drew 1:1 away to Lille: Mama Baldé opened the scoring as early as the 6th minute, but Lille equalised from a penalty in the second half. Before that, Brest thrashed Angers 5:1, generating 3.82 xG and scoring four goals in the first half alone.
- There were fewer than 10.5 corners in 9 of Brest's last 10 Ligue 1 home matches.
- Brest committed fewer than 13.5 fouls in 8 of their last 10 Ligue 1 home matches.
- There were fewer than 2.5 second-half goals in all 7 of Brest's matches in the 2026/27 season.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Egil Selvik, Kenny Lala, Lucas Tousart, Gautier Lloris, Bradley Locko, Joris Chotard, Hugo Magnetti, Mama Baldé, Kamory Doumbia, Pathé Mboup, Ludovic Ajorque.
Absentees: Brendan Chardonnet, Raphaël Le Guen (both injured), Giovani Versini (doubtful).
Form and Line-up Nice
Nice lost their last away match against Lyon 1:2. The visitors went ahead in the 18th minute but conceded twice before half-time. Before that, however, Nice had beaten Lille 2:1 and Strasbourg 2:1, benefiting from an opposition own goal in each match.
- The teams registered fewer than 10.5 shots on target in 9 of Nice's last 10 Ligue 1 away matches.
- There were fewer than 23.5 fouls in 9 of Nice's last 10 Ligue 1 away matches.
- There were fewer than 2.5 second-half goals in all 7 of Nice's matches in the 2026/27 season.
Probable line-up (3-4-2-1): Yehvann Diouf, Mohamed Abdelmonem, Youssouf Ndayishimiye, Xavier Mandza, Jonathan Clauss, Axel Witsel, Hicham Boudaoui, Niels Nkounkou, Gauthier Hein, Mohamed Amoura, Elye Wahi.
Absentees: Morgan Sanson, Laurent Aberzhel, Moïse Bombito, Antoine Mendy (all injured), Ali Abdi (doubtful).
The teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Brest a 42.5% chance, with average odds of 2.25 for a home win and fair odds of 2.35. The draw is rated at 28.1%, with average odds of 3.40 against fair odds of 3.56; a Nice win is rated at 29.4%, with 3.25 against 3.40.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brest win | 2.25 | 2.35 | 42.5% |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.56 | 28.1% |
| Nice win | 3.25 | 3.40 | 29.4% |
Total goals analysis
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 at 1.72 is shorter than Under 2.5 at 2.12. At 3.5 goals, the market strongly favours Under 3.5 at 1.45, while Over 3.5 is available at 2.60.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.12 | 1.72 |
| 3.5 | 1.45 | 2.60 |
Handicap analysis
Brest (-1.5) at 3.70 is shorter than Nice (-1.5) at 5.90. On the +1.5 handicap line, Brest (+1.5) at 1.08 is shorter than Nice (+1.5) at 1.23; on the -1 line, the odds are 3.05 and 5.20 respectively. For the +1 handicap, Brest (+1) is offered at 1.11 and Nice (+1) at 1.32, while on the zero handicap, Brest (0) is 1.62 against Nice (0) at 2.30.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 3.70 | -1.5 | 5.90 |
| 1.08 | 1.5 | 1.23 |
| 3.05 | -1 | 5.20 |
| 1.11 | 1 | 1.32 |
| 1.62 | 0 | 2.30 |
Both teams to score analysis
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.57 is considerably shorter than Both teams to score — No at 2.35: the market favours goals from both sides, while No means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.57 |
| No | 2.35 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
9/25
|
29/100
|
67/100
|
| 888sport |
33/100
|
3/10
|
13/20
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals analysis
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team goals lines: Brest at 1.5 goals and Nice at 1 goal.
Brest team goals
For Brest team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.16 is much shorter than Under 0.5 at 4.30; at the 1-goal line, Over 1 at 1.35 is shorter than Under 1 at 3.00. At 1.5 goals, the odds are close: Under 1.5 at 1.80 and Over 1.5 at 1.95. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 at 1.37 is favoured, while Over 2 is offered at 2.85.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.30 | 0.5 | 1.16 |
| 3.00 | 1 | 1.35 |
| 1.80 | 1.5 | 1.95 |
| 1.37 | 2 | 2.85 |
Nice team goals
For Nice team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.28 is shorter than Under 0.5 at 3.30. At the 1-goal line, Over 1 at 1.60 is favoured over Under 1 at 2.25, while at 1.5 goals Under 1.5 is offered at 1.55 against Over 1.5 at 2.40.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.30 | 0.5 | 1.28 |
| 2.25 | 1 | 1.60 |
| 1.55 | 1.5 | 2.40 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Guillaume Paradis (France)
Matches — 18 (Ligue 1, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 25;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.7;
Matches with a red card — 1 of 18;
Matches with a penalty — 2 of 18.
