Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, Toulouse hold a slight edge: the away win is 2.65 compared with 2.70 for the home win, while the draw is 3.40. In the main total market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.83 looks more likely than Over 2.5 goals at 1.97. For the 0 handicap, Toulouse Draw No Bet is 1.88, slightly shorter than Brest Draw No Bet at 1.92.
Why Toulouse are favourites for the match
Bookmakers rate the teams' chances as almost equal: Brest to win is available at 2.70, Toulouse to win at 2.65, and the draw at 3.40.
- Brest have not won any of their last 10 Ligue 1 matches, which does not make the hosts clear favourites for this fixture.
- Toulouse began the season with a 0:2 home defeat to Lyon and have yet to show assured attacking play.
Form and Line-up Brest
On Ligue 1 Matchday 1, Brest drew 2:2 away to Le Mans, scoring twice but again faltering defensively. In 9 of their last 10 home league matches, they have registered no more than 5 shots on target, indicating difficulties creating chances in front of their own supporters.
At the start of the season, the team share third place in the league for average scoring, with 2.0 goals per game. At the same time, the club are negotiating to extend midfielder Hugo Magnetti's contract until 2029, retaining the core of their midfield.
Key numbers:
- In 9 of Brest's last 10 Ligue 1 matches, the team and their opponents have taken at least 9 corners.
- In 10 of Brest's last 10 Ligue 1 matches, their opponents have been caught offside at least twice.
- In 10 of Brest's last 10 away Ligue 1 matches, their opponents have registered at least 4 shots on target.
Probable Brest line-up (4-2-3-1): Egil Selvik — Kenny Lala — Lucas Tousart — Raphael Le Guen — Bradley Locko — Joris Chotard — Joseph Nonge — Romain Del Castillo — Kamory Doumbia — Pathe Mboup — Ludovic Ajorque
Form and Line-up Toulouse
Before the start of the league season, Toulouse added new signings Thomas Jorgensen and David Odogu to their squad, but Aron Donnum missed the first matchday and the overall cohesion of the revamped team remains in question. At the start of the competition, they are the only club without a goal and sit bottom of the league on this metric.
Toulouse have often been restrained away from home: in 8 of their last 10 away Ligue 1 matches, they have taken no more than 5 corners, while in 9 of 10 they have committed at least 13 fouls.
Key numbers:
- In 9 of their last 10 away Ligue 1 matches, Toulouse have not committed fewer fouls than their opponents.
- In 9 of Toulouse's last 10 home Ligue 1 matches, their opponents have received at least 2 yellow cards.
- In 8 of their last 10 away Ligue 1 matches, Toulouse have committed more fouls than their opponents.
Probable Toulouse line-up (5-2-3): Guillaume Restes — Ismael Diallo — Mark McKenzie — Rasmus Nicolaisen — Crist Tape — Cristian Casseres Jr. — Niklas Schmidt — Julian Vignolo — Thomas Jorgensen — Yann Gboho — Santiago Hidalgo
Teams' chances
Fair-odds assessment gives Toulouse a 36.2% chance at odds of 2.76, compared with 35.5% for Brest at 2.81; the market offers 2.65 for the away win and 2.70 for the home win. The draw has a fair-odds probability of 28.2%: 3.54 compared with the market's 3.40.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brest to win | 2.70 | 2.81 | 35.5% |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.54 | 28.2% |
| Toulouse to win | 2.65 | 2.76 | 36.2% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.83 compared with 1.97 for Over 2.5 goals. At the 3.5 line, Under 3.5 goals is a much stronger favourite at 1.30, while Over 3.5 goals is 3.15.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.83 | 1.97 |
| 3.5 | 1.30 | 3.15 |
Handicap prediction
Brest (-1.5) and Toulouse (-1.5) are almost equal: 5.00 and 4.90. At the 1.5 line, both sides are 1.12. For the -1 handicap, Brest (-1) is 4.15 and Toulouse (-1) is 4.10, while at the 1 line Brest (+1) is 1.18 compared with 1.17 for Toulouse (+1). On the 0 handicap, Toulouse Draw No Bet at 1.88 is slightly more favoured than Brest Draw No Bet at 1.92.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 5.00 | -1.5 | 4.90 |
| 1.12 | 1.5 | 1.12 |
| 4.15 | -1 | 4.10 |
| 1.18 | 1 | 1.17 |
| 1.92 | 0 | 1.88 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - Yes is 1.75 and looks more likely than Both teams to score - No at 2.03; the latter option means that at least one team will not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.75 |
| No | 2.03 |
Double chance prediction
The 1X and X2 double-chance bets are both quoted at 1.50, while 12 is 1.35 and looks more likely.
| 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | 1.35 | 1.50 |
Team total prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Brest — 1 goal, Toulouse — 1 goal.
Brest team total
Brest: Over 0.5 goals is 1.30 compared with 3.20 for Under 0.5 goals; at the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal is 2.15 and Over 1 goal is 1.65. At the 1.5-goal mark, Under 1.5 goals is 1.50 and Over 1.5 goals is 2.50.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.20 | 0.5 | 1.30 |
| 2.15 | 1 | 1.65 |
| 1.50 | 1.5 | 2.50 |
Toulouse team total
Toulouse: Over 0.5 goals is 1.30 compared with 3.25 for Under 0.5 goals; at the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal is 2.20 and Over 1 goal is 1.63. At the 1.5-goal mark, Under 1.5 goals is 1.52 and Over 1.5 goals is 2.45.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.25 | 0.5 | 1.30 |
| 2.20 | 1 | 1.63 |
| 1.52 | 1.5 | 2.45 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Jerome Brisard (France)
Matches – 16 (Ligue 1, 2025/26);
Average fouls per match – 23;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows – 4.1;
Matches with red cards – 7 of 16;
Matches with penalties – 2 of 16.
