Form and Line-up Lanus
Lanus created problems for themselves with the heavy defeat in Bolivia, when they lost 0:4 to Always Ready. Yes, the team can draw level on points with LDU Quito, but they definitely cannot overtake them because of the worse goal difference in the head-to-head meetings.
Key numbers:
- The team have conceded more than anyone else in the group (seven goals).
- Lanus have failed to score in four matches in all competitions.
- In each of the last 11 matches involving Lanus, at least one of the teams failed to score.
Probable Lanus Line-up (4-2-3-1)
Nahuel Losada — Sasha Marcich, Jose Canale, Carlos Izquierdoz, Tomas Guidara — Agustin Cardozo, Felipe Pena — Ramiro Carrera, Marcelino Moreno, Eduardo Salvio — Yoshan Valois.
Form and Line-up Mirassol
Mirassol have been poor in the Brazilian league (third from bottom), but are performing well on the international stage, where the team only made their debut this year. So far only LDU Quito have taken points off them, winning 2:0 at home in the Andes.
Key numbers:
- The team have scored in each of their last eight matches (in all competitions), but never more than two goals.
- In those eight matches there has been fewer than two goals from both sides combined only once.
- Mirassol have conceded in 11 consecutive away matches in all competitions.
Probable Mirassol Line-up (4-2-3-1)
Walter — Reinaldo, Willian Machado, Joao Victor, Daniel Borges — Denilson, Jose Aldo — Shaylon, Alesson, Carlos Eduardo — Edson Carioca.
Betting Tip
Lanus come into this game in a crisis. They are unable not only to win but even to pick up points. The side have forgotten how to score. How can they be regarded as favourites with a supposed win probability of 45–55%?
Of course, one of the reasons for the long negative and goalless run has been the fact that they have had to play away from home. Lanus have not played an official match at their own stadium since 2 May, when they drew 0:0 with Deportivo Riestra. As the results show, their scoring output has not improved because of that. The team sat very deep in defence only when they played at altitude in Bolivia and Ecuador. On level ground they do create chances, but they fail to take them.
Mirassol suffer because of poor finishing in the Brasileiro, where they still cannot get out of the relegation zone. Away from home it is rare for them to score twice. Their only total dominance comes in the air (over 60% of aerial duels won): the entire back line, led by Joao Victor, is close to 1.90m tall. It will be hard to outplay them at set pieces, while the visitors' own set plays are dangerous. It was the captain who scored the only winning goal from a corner in their first meeting with these opponents.
Lanus have not yet lost their motivation. Admittedly it is hard to believe, but if Always Ready win at their usual altitude of nearly 3,000 metres, a defeat for the Argentine club would even leave them out of the Copa Sudamericana play-offs. The problem is that both teams tend to waste their chances. There is a high probability that a bet on the under will come in again.
Prediction: Under 2.5 goals
