The second leg of the Copa Libertadores 2025 Round of 16 between Velez Sarsfield (Argentina) and Fortaleza (Brazil) will take place on August 20 at the Jose Amalfitani Stadium in Buenos Aires. The first match ended 0-0. Velez Sarsfield vs. Fortaleza: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Velez Sarsfield
The Argentinians achieved a favorable result in the first leg. Playing away, the club held the Brazilians to a draw (0-0) and came closer to scoring than the hosts, with an xG of 0.95 to 0.4. Guillermo Barros Schelotto's side is unbeaten in this tournament for four matches (1 win and 3 draws). Additionally, the team has not conceded in their last three Copa Libertadores matches. To advance to the quarter-finals, the hosts need to secure a win in 90 minutes.
- In the last 7 matches in this tournament, the Argentinians have suffered only 1 defeat in regular time (3 wins and 3 draws).
- Velez Sarsfield has not conceded more than one goal in 90 minutes in 6 of their last 7 Copa Libertadores games.
- At least 3 goals have been scored in regular time in 7 of the team's last 9 home matches in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Velez Sarsfield (4-3-3)
Tomas Marchiori – Jano Gordon, Emanuel Mammana, Elias Gomez, Lisandro Magallan – Claudio Baeza, Rodrigo Allendro, Tomas Galvan – Matias Pellegrini, Maer Carriso, Bryan Romero.
Out due to injuries: defenders Emanuel Mammana and Isaias Andrada, midfielders Agustin Bouzat and Diego Valdes, and forwards Thiago Fernandez and Florian Monzon. Midfielder Claudio Baeza will miss the game due to yellow card accumulation.
Fortaleza
The team had more possession in the first leg but failed to convert it into goals. For the Brazilians, this is their third consecutive match without a win or a goal in the Copa Libertadores (2 draws and 1 loss). To advance further in the tournament, Fortaleza needs to defeat the Argentinians on their home turf. If the second leg ends in another draw, a penalty shootout will ensue.
- The club has not won in regular time in 6 of their last 8 Copa Libertadores games (3 draws and 3 losses).
- At least one team failed to score in 9 of Fortaleza's last 11 matches in this tournament.
- The Brazilians have claimed only 1 win in regular time in their last 6 away matches in the Copa Libertadores (2 draws and 3 losses).
Predicted lineup for Fortaleza (4-3-3)
Elton Leite – Eros Mancuso, Benjamin Kuscevic, Gaston Avila, Diogo Barbosa – Lucas Sasha, Emmanuel Martinez, Lucca Pimenta – Deyverson, Marinho, Breno Lopes.
Out due to injuries: midfielder Tomas Pochettino, forward Moises Vieira, and goalkeeper Brenno. Midfielder Mateus Rossetto is suspended.
Referee
Andres Rojas (Colombia)
Matches – 17 (International matches, 2024–2025);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 82;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.8;
Red cards shown – 4;
Average fouls per match – 24;
Penalties – 18%.
Match Prediction: Velez Sarsfield vs. Fortaleza
I believe that in the return leg, the Argentinians will be able to secure a win without resorting to extra time. They are in much better form and have suffered only 3 defeats in regular time in their last 16 Copa Libertadores matches (8 wins and 5 draws). Velez Sarsfield is particularly strong at home, where they have not lost in 10 of their last 12 Copa Libertadores matches (8 wins and 2 draws).
Meanwhile, the Brazilians have managed only 3 wins in regular time in their last 12 matches in this tournament (5 draws and 4 losses). They also face challenges in away games, where Fortaleza has only defeated Colo-Colo in their last 6 Copa Libertadores matches. Notably, in half of these away matches, the Brazilians failed to score. Therefore, my prediction is a Velez Sarsfield win.
* The starting lineup for each team is based on their last match in this tournament.
