Odds overview
Como are clear favourites: the home win is available at 1.23, compared with 6.10 for the draw and 14.00 for the away win. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.70 is favoured over Under 2.5 at 2.17. In the handicaps, Como (-1.5) at 1.70 is shorter than Parma (+1.5) at 2.15, while Como (-1) at 1.30 is strongly favoured over Parma (+1) at 3.15; on the Draw No Bet line, the odds are 1.03 versus 8.50.
Why Como are favourites
Como to win is available at 1.23, the draw at 6.10 and Parma to win at 14.00. The arguments for this assessment are:
Como have made an excellent start to the season — after three matches, they are fourth in Serie A with 7 points and a goal difference of 7:3.
Parma have struggled to get going in the league — defeats to Cagliari (0:1) and Juventus (0:2), with their only point coming in a draw with Monza (1:1).
Como have lost to Parma only once in their last seven head-to-head meetings.
Form and Line-up Como
Como are still unbeaten this season. Cesc Fabregas's side drew with Udinese before recording three consecutive wins — over Napoli (2:1), Genoa (4:1) and Leipzig (4:1) in the Champions League. Como's attacking trio of Diao, Douvikas and Baturina have been particularly impressive, scoring nine goals between them in four matches (three each).
Key numbers:
In 10 of Como's last 10 Serie A home matches, their opponents have taken no more than 4 corners.
No more than 10 corners have been recorded in 8 of Como's last 10 Serie A home matches.
At least 3 offsides have been recorded in 8 of Como's 10 Serie A home games.
Probable Como line-up (4-2-3-1): Jean Butez — Yan Couto, Jacobo Ramon, Trevoh Chalobah, Alex Valle — Luis Milla, Lucas Da Cunha — Assane Diao, Nico Paz, Martin Baturina — Anastasios Douvikas.
Absentees: Jayden Addai (injury).
Form and Line-up Parma
Parma's win over Catania (2:0) in the Coppa Italia was followed by a poor run. The Parmesans lost two Serie A matches (to Juventus and Cagliari) and were knocked out of the cup by Cremonese (0:2). They then drew with Monza (1:1), but the home side looked decidedly weak there (three shots on target and 0.73 xG).
Key numbers:
In 10 of their last 10 Serie A away matches, Parma's opponents have received no more than 2 yellow cards.
Referees have shown no more than 4 yellow cards in 9 of Parma's 10 Serie A away games.
Teams have taken at least 9 corners in 8 of Parma's 10 Serie A away matches.
Probable Parma line-up (3-4-2-1): Edoardo Corvi — Enrico Delprato, Mariano Troilo, Diego Carlos — Sascha Britschgi, Mandela Keita, Christian Ordonez, Emanuele Valeri — Giovanni Fabbian, El Bilal Toure — David Romero.
Absentees: Hans Nicolussi Caviglia, Adrian Bernabe, Ousmane Diao (all injured).
Team chances
Como to win: average odds of 1.23, fair odds of 1.29 and a 77.5% probability. The draw is available at 6.10, with fair odds of 6.40 and a 15.6% probability; Parma to win is 14.00, 14.68 and 6.8% respectively: the market rates a Como victory considerably more highly.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
Como to win | 1.23 | 1.29 | 77.5% |
Draw | 6.10 | 6.40 | 15.6% |
Parma to win | 14.00 | 14.68 | 6.8% |
Total goals prediction
On the 2.5 line, Over 2.5 at 1.70 is rated more highly than Under 2.5 at 2.17. On the 3.5 line, Under 3.5 at 1.45 is preferred to Over 3.5 at 2.60.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.17 | 1.70 |
3.5 | 1.45 | 2.60 |
Handicap prediction
Como (-1.5) is available at 1.70, while Parma (+1.5) is 2.15. On the -1 line, Como (-1) is available at 1.30 and Parma (+1) at 3.15. With a Draw No Bet handicap, Como (0) at 1.03 is considerably shorter than Parma (0) at 8.50.
Home | Handicap | Away |
1.70 | -1.5 | — |
— | 1.5 | 2.15 |
1.30 | -1 | — |
— | 1 | 3.15 |
1.03 | 0 | 8.50 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - No at 1.52 is favoured over Both teams to score - Yes at 2.45: the odds rate more highly the scenario in which at least one team does not score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 2.45 |
No | 1.52 |
Double chance prediction
1X at 1.04 and 12 at 1.14 look considerably more likely than X2 at 4.20; 1X has the shortest odds.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.04 | 1.14 | 4.20 |
Team totals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team totals for this match: Como — 2 goals, Parma — 0.5 goals.
Como team total
Como team total: Over 1.5 at 1.35 is strongly favoured over Under 1.5 at 2.95. On the 2 line, Over 2 at 1.63 is shorter than Under 2 at 2.20, while on the 2.5 line the opposite applies: Under 2.5 is 1.63 compared with 2.20 for Over 2.5.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.95 | 1.5 | 1.35 |
2.20 | 2 | 1.63 |
1.63 | 2.5 | 2.20 |
Parma team total
Parma team total: Under 0.5 at 1.55 is rated more highly than Over 0.5 at 2.35. On the 1 and 1.5 lines, the market is even more strongly inclined towards the under: Under 1 is 1.12 compared with 5.00 for Over 1, while Under 1.5 is 1.06 compared with 6.70 for Over 1.5.
Under | Team total | Over |
1.55 | 0.5 | 2.35 |
1.12 | 1 | 5.00 |
1.06 | 1.5 | 6.70 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Giuseppe Mucera (Italy)
Matches — 20 (Serie A, Serie B, 2025/26);
Average fouls per match — 27;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.3;
Matches with red cards — 2 out of 20;
Matches with penalties — 3 out of 20.
