Odds overview
Como are slight favourites, with a home win at 2.55 against 2.65 for an AS Roma win, while the draw is at 3.55. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.63 is considerably more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 2.30. At a handicap of 0, Como Draw No Bet (0) at 1.87 is slightly shorter than AS Roma Draw No Bet (0) at 1.93.
Why there is no clear favourite
A Como win is quoted at 2.55, the draw at 3.55 and an AS Roma win at 2.65. Bookmakers rate the teams' chances almost equally. The reasons for this assessment are:
- Como have lost just once in five rounds, while AS Roma top the Serie A table with four wins and a draw.
- Como have lost just once at home in seven rounds, while AS Roma are on a run of five away wins in Serie A.
- The teams have each won three of their last six head-to-head meetings.
Form and Line-up Como
In the latest round of Serie A, Como lost 0:2 away to Frosinone. Before that match, however, Cesc Fàbregas's side had been unbeaten, with one draw and four wins, including a 4:1 victory over RB Leipzig in the UEFA Champions League.
- All 5 of Como's Serie A matches in the 2026/27 season have finished with Over 1.5 goals.
- Como's opponents have scored Under 1.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 Serie A matches.
- Como have taken Over 11.5 shots, including blocked attempts, in each of their last 10 home Serie A matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Jean Butez, Yan Couto, Jacobo Ramón, Trevoh Chalobah, Álex Valle, Máximo Perrone, Lucas Da Cunha, Assane Diao, Nico Paz, Martin Baturina, Anastasios Douvikas.
Absentees: Moise Kean, Ivan Smolcic (both doubtful).
Form and Line-up AS Roma
AS Roma travel after a 2:2 home draw with Inter Milan in the league. It was their first dropped points, following four straight wins by an aggregate score of 12:1. The team's standout player is Donyell Malen, who has already scored six league goals.
- AS Roma have scored Over 1.5 goals in each of their last 10 Serie A matches.
- AS Roma have had at least as many offsides as their opponents in each of their last 10 away Serie A matches.
- Under 4.5 yellow cards have been shown in 9 of AS Roma's last 10 away Serie A matches.
Probable line-up (3-4-2-1): Mile Svilar, Gianluca Mancini, Evan N'Dicka, Mario Hermoso, Nahuel Molina, Marten de Roon, Kouadio Koné, Wesley, Paulo Dybala, Matías Soulé, Donyell Malen.
Absentees: Mouhamed Ba (injured), Bryan Cristante (doubtful).
The teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Como a 37.3% chance, with average odds of 2.55 for a home win and fair odds of 2.68. AS Roma have a 35.9% chance: an away win is offered at 2.65, with fair odds of 2.79. The draw has a 26.8% chance, with odds of 3.55 and fair odds of 3.73.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Como to win | 2.55 | 2.68 | 37.3% |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.73 | 26.8% |
| AS Roma to win | 2.65 | 2.79 | 35.9% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.63 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.30. At 3.5 goals, the balance reverses: Under 3.5 goals is at 1.55 and Over 3.5 goals at 2.40.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.30 | 1.63 |
| 3.5 | 1.55 | 2.40 |
Handicap prediction
Bookmakers are cautious about comfortable wins: Como (-1.5) are available at 4.20 and AS Roma (-1.5) at 4.30. At a +1.5 handicap, the odds are almost equal — Como (+1.5) at 1.16 and AS Roma (+1.5) at 1.17. Como (-1) at 3.65 are slightly shorter than AS Roma (-1) at 3.80, while at a +1 handicap Como (+1) are 1.22 against 1.25 for AS Roma (+1). At a handicap of 0, Como Draw No Bet (0) at 1.87 have a slight edge over AS Roma Draw No Bet (0) at 1.93.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.20 | -1.5 | 4.30 |
| 1.16 | 1.5 | 1.17 |
| 3.65 | -1 | 3.80 |
| 1.22 | 1 | 1.25 |
| 1.87 | 0 | 1.93 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.50 is considerably more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.50, which requires at least one team to fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.50 |
| No | 2.50 |
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal lines for this match: Como — 1.5 goals, AS Roma — 1.5 goals.
Como team goals
For Como team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.18 is substantially shorter than Under 0.5 at 4.05; at the 1-goal line, Over 1 is 1.37 against 2.85 for Under 1. At 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 at 1.75 has a slight edge over Over 1.5 at 2.05, while at the 2-goal line Under 2 is 1.30 against 3.25 for Over 2.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.05 | 0.5 | 1.18 |
| 2.85 | 1 | 1.37 |
| 1.75 | 1.5 | 2.05 |
| 1.30 | 2 | 3.25 |
AS Roma team goals
For AS Roma team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.20 is clearly favoured over Under 0.5 at 3.95, while Over 1 at 1.43 is favoured over Under 1 at 2.65. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is quoted at 1.68 and Over 1.5 at 2.10; at 2 goals, Under 2 is 1.28 against 3.35 for Over 2.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.95 | 0.5 | 1.20 |
| 2.65 | 1 | 1.43 |
| 1.68 | 1.5 | 2.10 |
| 1.28 | 2 | 3.35 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Michael Fabbri (Italy)
Matches — 16 (Serie A, 2025/26, 2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4;
Matches with a red card — 0 of 16;
Matches with a penalty — 4 of 16.
