Estonia vs Iceland: prediction & betting odds 6 October 2026

Odds overview

Iceland are clear favourites, with an away win at 1.62, a draw at around 4.10 and a home win at about 5.40. In the main 2.5-goal totals market, Over is slightly favoured over Under, at 1.85 versus 1.95. In the main handicap market, Iceland Draw No Bet at 1.23 is considerably more likely than Estonia Draw No Bet at 3.75.

Why Iceland are favourites

Bookmakers favour the visitors: Iceland are available at 1.62 to win, representing an estimated 59% probability after removing the margin. Estonia are quoted at 5.40 (17.7%), while a draw is available at 4.10 (23.3%).

• Iceland have been convincing in their recent UEFA Nations League matches, thrashing Luxembourg 3:0 and beating Bulgaria by the same 3:0 scoreline.
• Estonia have looked less potent in attack over the same period: they failed to score against Bulgaria (0:0), while their win over Luxembourg was a narrow 1:0.

Form and Line-up Estonia

Estonia build their play on defence: in the pre-match UEFA Nations League figures, they rank second-bottom for goals scored, averaging 0.33 per match. The hosts also rarely threaten the opposition goal — they registered fewer than 11.5 shots in 9 of their last 10 home matches in the competition.

Estonia held Iceland to a 1:1 draw away from home in their September meeting, showing they can contain Iceland's attacking threat.

• Estonia committed more than 12.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
• More than 7.5 corners were taken in Estonia's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
• Estonia scored fewer than 2.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.

Probable Estonia line-up (3-5-1-1): Matvei Igonen, Maksim Paskotsi, Märten Kuusk, Karol Mets, Rasmus Peetson, Kevor Palumets, Markus Poom, Mattias Käit, Michael Schjönning-Larsen, Patrik Kristal, Mattias Männilaan.

Form and Line-up Iceland

Iceland face pressure from opponents away from home: in 9 of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches, they had fewer shots than their opponents and did not win the corner count.

Meanwhile, Iceland share the same position as Estonia for opponents' goals conceded in this league snapshot (0.33 goals).

• Iceland received more than 1.5 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
• More than 2.5 offsides were recorded in 9 of Iceland's last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
• The total number of fouls did not exceed 24.5 in 8 of Iceland's last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.

Probable Iceland line-up (3-4-2-1): Hákon Rafn Valdimarsson, Mikael Anderson, Aron Gunnarsson, Hordur Magnusson, Mikael Ellertsson, Arnór Sigurdsson, Andri Baldursson, Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson, Jón Dagur Þorsteinsson, Hákon Arnar Haraldsson, Orri Steinn Óskarsson.

The teams' chances

The margin-free estimate gives Iceland a 59% chance of winning, with average odds of 1.62 and fair odds of 1.70. The draw has a 23.3% chance, with odds of 4.10 and 4.29 respectively; Estonia's chance of winning is 17.7%, with odds of 5.40 and 5.65.

Total goals prediction

Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.95 and Over 2.5 at 1.85, so bookmakers see a higher-scoring outcome as slightly more likely. At the 3.5-goal line, Under is clearly favoured at 1.37, compared with 2.85 for Over.

Handicap prediction

Iceland (-1.5) are available at 2.65, while Estonia (+1.5) are at 1.45. At the one-goal handicap line, Iceland (-1) are quoted at 2.05 and Estonia (+1) at 1.78; at a zero handicap, Iceland (0) at 1.23 are considerably shorter than Estonia (0) at 3.75.

Both teams to score prediction

Both teams to score — Yes is available at 1.83, while Both teams to score — No is at 1.91. There is a slight edge for both teams scoring; the second outcome means at least one team will fail to score.

Double chance forecast

Bookmaker	1X	12	X2
Bet365	69/50	11/50	11/100
888sport	69/50	1/4	3/25

Odds are current as of the material publication date

Team goals prediction

Bookmakers have set the following team goals lines for this match: Estonia — 0.5 goals; Iceland — 1.5 goals.

Estonia team goals

For Estonia's team goals, Over 0.5 is available at 1.62 versus 2.25 for Under 0.5. At the one-goal line, Under is at 1.50 and Over at 2.50; at 1.5 goals, Under is 1.25 and Over 3.65, suggesting an expectation of no more than one goal.

Iceland team goals

For Iceland's team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.08 is strongly favoured over Under 0.5 at 5.90; at the one-goal line, the odds are 1.20 versus 3.95. At 1.5 goals, Over is at 1.73 and Under at 2.05; at the two-goal line, Under at 1.55 is shorter than Over at 2.35.

Who Will Referee the Match

David Dickinson (Scotland)

Matches — 5 (International Friendlies, 2025/26–2026/27);

Average fouls per match — 27;

Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 6.2;

Matches with a red card — 1 out of 5;

Matches with a penalty — 2 out of 5.