Odds overview
Iceland are clear favourites to win at 1.62, while the draw is around 4.10 and an Estonia win around 5.40. In the main 2.5-goal totals market, Over is slightly favoured over Under: 1.85 against 1.95. In the main handicap market, Iceland (0) at 1.23 are considerably more likely than Estonia (0) at 3.75.
Why Iceland are favourites
Bookmakers favour the visitors: Iceland are available to win at 1.62 (around a 59% probability without accounting for the margin). An Estonia win is quoted at 5.40 (17.7%), while the draw is available at 4.10 (23.3%).
- Iceland have performed strongly in their recent UEFA Nations League matches, thrashing Luxembourg 3:0 and beating Bulgaria by the same 3:0 scoreline.
- Estonia have looked less impressive in attack over the same period: they failed to score against Bulgaria (0:0) and edged Luxembourg 1:0.
Form and Line-up Estonia
Estonia build their game around defence: in the pre-match UEFA Nations League figures, they rank second from bottom for goals scored, averaging 0.33 per match. The hosts also rarely threaten the opposition goal — they registered fewer than 11.5 shots in 9 of their last 10 home matches in the competition.
In their September meeting, Estonia held on for a 1:1 draw away from home, showing they can contain Iceland's attacking threat.
- Estonia committed more than 12.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
- More than 7.5 corners were taken in Estonia's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Estonia scored fewer than 2.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
Probable Estonia line-up (3-5-1-1): Matvei Igonen, Maksim Paskotsi, Märten Kuusk, Karol Mets, Rasmus Peetson, Kevor Palumets, Markus Poom, Mattias Käit, Michael Schjönning-Larsen, Patrik Kristal, Mattias Männilaan.
Form and Line-up Iceland
Iceland face pressure from opponents away from home: they were outshot and failed to win the corner count in 9 of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
Meanwhile, Iceland are level with Estonia for goals conceded by their opponents in the league figures (0.33 goals).
- Iceland received more than 1.5 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- More than 2.5 offsides were recorded in 9 of Iceland's last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
- The total number of fouls did not exceed 24.5 in 8 of Iceland's last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Iceland line-up (3-4-2-1): Hákon Rafn Valdimarsson, Mikael Anderson, Aron Gunnarsson, Hordur Magnusson, Mikael Ellertsson, Arnór Sigurdsson, Andri Baldursson, Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson, Jón Dagur Þorsteinsson, Hákon Arnar Haraldsson, Orri Steinn Óskarsson.
The teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Iceland a 59% chance of winning, with average odds of 1.62 and fair odds of 1.70. The draw accounts for 23.3%, with odds of 4.10 and 4.29 respectively; an Estonia win stands at 17.7%, with odds of 5.40 and 5.65.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia win | 5.40 | 5.65 | 17.7% |
| Draw | 4.10 | 4.29 | 23.3% |
| Iceland win | 1.62 | 1.70 | 59.0% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.95 and Over 2.5 at 1.85, so bookmakers slightly favour the higher-scoring outcome. At the 3.5-goal line, Under is the clear favourite at 1.37, against 2.85 for Over.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.95 | 1.85 |
| 3.5 | 1.37 | 2.85 |
Handicap prediction
Iceland (-1.5) are quoted at 2.65 and Estonia (+1.5) at 1.45. At the 1-goal handicap line, Iceland (-1) are 2.05 and Estonia (+1) are 1.78; at a handicap of 0, Iceland (0) at 1.23 are considerably shorter than Estonia (0) at 3.75.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2.65 | |
| 1.45 | 1.5 | |
| -1 | 2.05 | |
| 1.78 | 1 | |
| 3.75 | 0 | 1.23 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is available at 1.83, while Both teams to score — No is 1.91. The option for both sides to score has a slight edge; the other outcome means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.83 |
| No | 1.91 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
6/5
|
17/100
|
13/100
|
| 888sport |
6/5
|
1/4
|
17/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Estonia — 0.5 goals; Iceland — 1.5 goals.
Estonia team total goals
Estonia's team total: Over 0.5 goals is quoted at 1.62, against 2.25 for Under 0.5. At the 1-goal line, Under is 1.50 and Over 2.50; at 1.5, Under is 1.25 and Over 3.65, suggesting an expectation of no more than one goal.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.25 | 0.5 | 1.62 |
| 1.50 | 1 | 2.50 |
| 1.25 | 1.5 | 3.65 |
Iceland team total goals
Iceland's team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.08 is heavily favoured over Under 0.5 at 5.90, while at the 1-goal line the odds are 1.20 against 3.95. At 1.5 goals, Over is 1.73 and Under 2.05; at the 2-goal line, Under at 1.55 is shorter than Over at 2.35.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.90 | 0.5 | 1.08 |
| 3.95 | 1 | 1.20 |
| 2.05 | 1.5 | 1.73 |
| 1.55 | 2 | 2.35 |
