Bet on the match
Are Estudiantes going to trade on their pedigree as four-time Copa Libertadores champions? Universidad Católica are no less of a force, despite never having won continental silverware. Chilean football is associated with them.
Estudiantes have started the Argentine Clausura with three defeats in four matches. They only managed to beat an unremarkable Defensa y Justicia side 3:0 at home. The Students scraped into the Copa Libertadores knockout stage at the last moment. In the crucial final match against their main rivals Independiente Medellín, they only scored the winner in the 90th minute. Had the draw remained, the Argentine side would only have reached the Copa Sudamericana play-offs. Both Teams to Score - No has landed in Alexander Medina's side's last five matches, so it will be crucial who scores first. The hosts won only three of them.
Universidad Católica are doing relatively well in the Chilean league. They are in the top three but trail their main rivals Universidad de Chile and Colo-Colo. They are 15 points behind the leaders. However, in their Copa Libertadores group, which included Cruzeiro and Boca Juniors, the Santiago side finished first, losing only once — 1:2 at home to Boca in the opening round. It may surprise some, but UC took maximum points away from home. The Chilean side therefore know how to focus in important matches and when facing hostility from the stands.
Given this, and the fact that Estudiantes themselves recently lost 0:1 to Boca, it is logical to back Universidad Católica with at least a minimal +1 handicap.