Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, Lorient are slight favourites at 2.60, compared with 2.70 for a Le Mans win, while the draw is 3.40. In the 2.5-goal totals market, Over is shorter than Under — 1.80 against 2.00. Le Mans Draw No Bet and Lorient Draw No Bet are both available at 1.90.
Why Lorient are favourites for the match
Bookmakers rate the teams' chances almost equally: a Lorient win is available at 2.60, Le Mans to win at 2.70, and the draw at 3.40.
• The league table reflects the narrow gap: after four Ligue 1 matches, Lorient are ninth with 5 points, while Le Mans are 14th with 3 points.
• Le Mans' defence allows opponents to score freely, conceding an average of 2 goals per game — the third-highest figure in Ligue 1.
Form and Line-up Le Mans
In Matchday 4 of Ligue 1, Le Mans drew 2:2 with Lens at home. Under Patrick Videira, the team use a 3-4-2-1 system focused on intense pressing.
The figures also confirm their attacking pressure: in 8 of their last 10 home matches in all competitions, Le Mans have registered at least 4 shots on target.
- In 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions, Le Mans have registered at least 5 shots on target.
- In 8 of their last 10 home matches in all competitions, Le Mans have committed at least 13 fouls.
- In 9 of the last 10 matches involving Le Mans, the referee has shown at least 3 yellow cards.
Probable Le Mans line-up (3-4-2-1): Ewan Hatfout, Harold Voyer, Samuel Yohou, Noa Boisse, Lucas Bretelle, Lucas Calodat, Ryan Bamba, Jean Vercruysse, Adil Bourabaa, Dame Gueye, Louis Mafouta
Form and Line-up Lorient
Lorient drew 2:2 with Toulouse in the previous round, registering only 3 shots on target.
The team are pragmatic in attack: an average of 1.0 goal per match in the opening Ligue 1 sample leaves the Bretons among the competition's three lowest-scoring clubs. Meanwhile, in 9 of 10 away league matches, Lorient have committed no more than 13 fouls.
- In 9 of Lorient's last 10 away Ligue 1 matches, there have been no more than 9 shots on target in total.
- In 8 of their last 10 away Ligue 1 matches, Lorient and their opponents have registered no more than 25 shots in total.
- In 9 of their last 10 Ligue 1 matches, Lorient have committed no more than 11 fouls.
Probable Lorient line-up: Yvon Mvogo, Montassar Talbi, Nathaniel Adjei, Dembo Sylla, Arsene Kouassi, Panos Katseris, Noah Mbamba, Noah Cadiou, Gabin Bernardeau, Jean-Victor Makengo, Ibrahima Balde
Teams' chances
The away win has the highest rating: average odds of 2.60, fair odds of 2.73 and a 36.7% probability. The home win is at 2.70, 2.83 and 35.3%, while the draw is at 3.40, 3.57 and 28.0%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans win | 2.70 | 2.83 | 35.3% |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.57 | 28.0% |
| Lorient win | 2.60 | 2.73 | 36.7% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5 line, Under is 2.00 and Over is 1.80, so the market leans slightly towards a higher-scoring outcome. At 3.5, Under 1.40 is notably shorter than Over 2.75.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| 3.5 | 1.40 | 2.75 |
Handicap prediction
The odds for Home (-1.5) and Away (-1.5) are close — 4.70 and 4.50. Home (+1.5) and Away (+1.5) are almost identical at 1.15 and 1.14; on the -1 line, Away (-1) is shorter at 3.95 than Home (-1) at 4.20. Home (+1) and Away (+1) are both 1.20, as are Home Draw No Bet and Away Draw No Bet at 1.90.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.70 | -1.5 | 4.50 |
| 1.15 | 1.5 | 1.14 |
| 4.20 | -1 | 3.95 |
| 1.20 | 1 | 1.20 |
| 1.90 | 0 | 1.90 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - Yes is available at 1.65, while Both teams to score - No is 2.15: the outcome in which at least one team does not score appears less likely.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.65 |
| No | 2.15 |
Double chance forecast
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Le Mans — 1.5 goals; Lorient — 1.5 goals.
Le Mans team total
Le Mans team total: Under 0.5 is 3.35 compared with Over 0.5 at 1.28; at the line of 1, the odds are 2.35 and 1.55. At 1.5, Under 1.58 is shorter than Over 2.30, while at the line of 2, Under is 1.22 and Over is 3.85.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.35 | 0.5 | 1.28 |
| 2.35 | 1 | 1.55 |
| 1.58 | 1.5 | 2.30 |
| 1.22 | 2 | 3.85 |
Lorient team total
Lorient team total: Under 0.5 is available at 3.55 and Over 0.5 at 1.25; at the line of 1, the odds are 2.50 and 1.50. At 1.5, Under is 1.62 compared with Over at 2.20, and at 2, the odds are 1.23 and 3.75.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.55 | 0.5 | 1.25 |
| 2.50 | 1 | 1.50 |
| 1.62 | 1.5 | 2.20 |
| 1.23 | 2 | 3.75 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Geoffrey Kubler (France)
Matches — 18 (Ligue 1 and Ligue 2, 2025/26-2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 26;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows — 4.4;
Matches with red cards — 5 of 18;
Matches with penalties — 6 of 18.
