Odds overview
Toulouse look the favourites: a Toulouse win is 2.30, compared with 3.00 for a Le Mans win and 3.60 for a draw. Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.70, while Under 2.5 goals is 2.15. In the main handicap market, Toulouse (0) are shorter at 1.70 than Le Mans (0) at 2.15.
Why Toulouse are favourites
Bookmakers favour the visitors: a Toulouse win is offered at 2.30, compared with 3.00 for Le Mans and 3.60 for a draw.
- Toulouse regularly create chances, averaging 1.5 goals per game in Ligue 1, and have shown they can come from behind even in difficult away matches, as they did against Monaco (2:2).
- Le Mans have struggled defensively, conceding an average of two goals per league match, as they did in their most recent game against Paris Saint-Germain (1:3).
- Toulouse are unbeaten in their last six meetings with Le Mans, with four wins and two draws.
Form and Line-up Le Mans
In the last round of Ligue 1, Le Mans lost 1:3 away to Paris Saint-Germain: Louis Mafouta equalised in the 54th minute, but the Parisians quickly regained the lead through Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Maghnes Akliouche. The hosts have just one win this season, against Lorient (2:1), and have dropped points in every other match, with two draws and three defeats.
- Over 2.5 goals have been scored in 5 of Le Mans' 6 Ligue 1 matches.
- Both teams to score – Yes has won in 8 consecutive matches.
- Le Mans have committed over 12.5 fouls in 8 of their last 10 home matches in all competitions.
Probable line-up (3-5-2): Nicolas Kocik, Noah Boua, Samuel Yohou, Harold Voyer, Rayan Bamba, Lucas Bretelle, Jean Vercruysse, Alexandre Lauray, Lucas Calodat, Louis Mafouta, Habibou Diallo.
Absentees: Adil Bourabaa, Erwan Colas, Martin Rossignol (all injured).
Form and Line-up Toulouse
Toulouse come into this round after a 2:2 draw with Monaco, in which they showed resilience in the second half and scored twice in 11 minutes. The visitors' form has also been unconvincing — just one win, three draws and two defeats. Toulouse remain unbeaten away from home, however, having drawn all three away games 2:2.
- Over 2.5 goals have been scored in 8 of Toulouse's last 10 away matches in Ligue 1.
- Toulouse have conceded in 9 consecutive matches.
- Toulouse have taken fewer than 5.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 away games in Ligue 1.
Probable line-up (4-4-2): Guillaume Restes, Rafik Messali, Mark McKenzie, Seny Koumbassa, Crist Tape, Thomas Jørgensen, Alexis Vossah, Cristian Cásseres, Ilyas Azizi, Casper Tengstedt, Jacen Russell-Rowe.
Absentee: Julián Vignolo (injured).
The teams' chances
A Toulouse win is the most likely outcome, at odds of 2.30, with a fair probability of 41.6% and fair odds of 2.41. A Le Mans win is 3.00, with a fair probability of 31.9% and fair odds of 3.14; a draw is 3.60, 26.6% and 3.77 respectively.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans to win | 3.00 | 3.14 | 31.9% |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.77 | 26.6% |
| Toulouse to win | 2.30 | 2.41 | 41.6% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals is favoured at 1.70 over Under 2.5 goals at 2.15. At the 3.5-goal line, by contrast, Under 3.5 goals is shorter at 1.48, compared with 2.55 for Over 3.5 goals.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.15 | 1.70 |
| 3.5 | 1.48 | 2.55 |
Handicap prediction
Le Mans (-1.5) are available at 4.90 and Toulouse (-1.5) at 4.30; on the +1.5 line, the odds are 1.20 for Le Mans (+1.5) and 1.12 for Toulouse (+1.5). On the -1 line, Le Mans (-1) are 4.30 and Toulouse (-1) are 3.35; on the +1 line, Le Mans (+1) are 1.28 and Toulouse (+1) are 1.16. At handicap (0), Toulouse (0) are shorter at 1.70 than Le Mans (0) at 2.15.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.90 | -1.5 | 4.30 |
| 1.20 | 1.5 | 1.12 |
| 4.30 | -1 | 3.35 |
| 1.28 | 1 | 1.16 |
| 2.15 | 0 | 1.70 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – Yes is offered at 1.57, considerably shorter than the 2.35 for Both teams to score – No, which means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.57 |
| No | 2.35 |
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goals lines for this match: Le Mans — 1.5 goals; Toulouse — 1.5 goals.
Le Mans team goals
Le Mans team goals: Over 0.5 is 1.25, compared with 3.45 for Under 0.5; Over 1 is 1.55, compared with 2.40 for Under 1. On the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is shorter at 1.60, while Over 1.5 is 2.30. On the 2-goal line, Under 2 is available at 1.22 and Over 2 at 3.85.
| Under | Team goals line | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.45 | 0.5 | 1.25 |
| 2.40 | 1 | 1.55 |
| 1.60 | 1.5 | 2.30 |
| 1.22 | 2 | 3.85 |
Toulouse team goals
Toulouse team goals: Over 0.5 is 1.17, compared with 4.20 for Under 0.5; Over 1 is 1.35, compared with 3.00 for Under 1. On the 1.5-goal line, the odds are close: Under 1.5 is 1.77 and Over 1.5 is 2.00. On the 2-goal line, Under 2 is 1.30 and Over 2 is 3.15.
| Under | Team goals line | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.20 | 0.5 | 1.17 |
| 3.00 | 1 | 1.35 |
| 1.77 | 1.5 | 2.00 |
| 1.30 | 2 | 3.15 |
