Odds overview
Roma are favourites: the away win is available at 2.15, compared with 3.30 for the home win, while the draw is quoted at 3.55. In the 2.5-goal totals market, Over is shorter at 1.77 than Under at 2.05, indicating an expectation of at least three goals. Fenerbahce Draw No Bet at 2.35 is notably longer than Roma Draw No Bet at 1.60; at the -1.5 handicap, the odds are 5.80 and 3.60 respectively.
Why Roma are favourites
Roma to win is available at 2.15, the draw at 3.55 and Fenerbahce to win at 3.30. The arguments for this assessment are:
Roma travel in excellent form after three convincing consecutive Serie A wins: against Fiorentina (4:0), Lecce (4:0) and Atalanta (2:1).
The Istanbul side stumbled at home in the domestic league ahead of their Champions League start, losing 1:2 to Besiktas.
Fenerbahce sold their key player Talisca, who had scored five goals in seven matches this season, including four in the Champions League.
Form and Line-up Fenerbahce
Fenerbahce reached the Champions League league phase through qualifying, overcoming Gornik (1:0, 1:1), Sturm (2:0, 1:0) and Lyon (1:1, 2:1). However, the Istanbul side have been below par in the Turkish league so far — two wins and two defeats (goal difference 8:6).
Key numbers:
In 9 of their last 10 Champions League home matches, Fenerbahce's opponents committed at least 11 fouls.
In 8 of their last 10 Champions League home matches, Fenerbahce's opponents took no more than 4 corners.
No more than three goals were scored in 9 of Fenerbahce's last 10 Champions League home matches.
Probable Fenerbahce line-up (4-2-3-1): Ederson — Nelson Semedo, Milan Skriniar, Nathan Ake, Archie Brown — N'Golo Kante, Ismail Yuksek — Mason Greenwood, Irfan Can Kahveci, Oguz Aydin — Vedat Muriqi.
Absentees: Jayden Oosterwolde (injury).
Form and Line-up Roma
Roma have made a perfect start to Serie A — two 4:0 wins over Fiorentina and Roma, as well as a 2:1 win over Atalanta. The result is first place in the table with a goal difference of 10:1. The main contributors are Donyell Malen with five goals and Paulo Dybala with four assists.
Key numbers:
Roma scored at least two goals in 8 of their last 10 home matches in all competitions.
Roma's opponents took no more than four corners in 8 of their last 10 home matches in all competitions.
Roma's opponents scored no more than one goal in 8 of their last 10 home matches in all competitions.
Probable Roma line-up (3-4-2-1): Mile Svilar — Gianluca Mancini, Daniele Ghilardi, Mario Hermoso — Nahuel Molina, Bryan Cristante, Manu Kone, Wesley — Matias Soule, Paulo Dybala — Donyell Malen.
Team chances
The away win is the most likely outcome: odds of 2.15, fair odds of 2.26 and a probability of 44.3%. The home win is offered at 3.30, with fair odds of 3.46 and a probability of 28.9%, while the respective figures for the draw are 3.55, 3.73 and 26.8%.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
Fenerbahce to win | 3.30 | 3.46 | 28.9% |
Draw | 3.55 | 3.73 | 26.8% |
Roma to win | 2.15 | 2.26 | 44.3% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over at 1.77 is preferred to Under at 2.05. At the 3.5-goal line, by contrast, Under at 1.40 is considerably shorter than Over at 2.70.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.05 | 1.77 |
3.5 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Handicap prediction
Fenerbahce (-1.5) is available at 5.80 and Roma (-1.5) at 3.60; at the 1.5 handicap, Roma (+1.5) is shorter at 1.08 than Fenerbahce (+1.5) at 1.25. At the -1 line, Roma (-1) at 2.95 is preferred to Fenerbahce (-1) at 5.10, while at +1 the odds are 1.11 for Roma (+1) and 1.35 for Fenerbahce (+1). In the Draw No Bet market, Roma at 1.60 is shorter than Fenerbahce at 2.35.
Home | Handicap | Away |
5.80 | -1.5 | 3.60 |
1.25 | 1.5 | 1.08 |
5.10 | -1 | 2.95 |
1.35 | 1 | 1.11 |
2.35 | 0 | 1.60 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - Yes at 1.65 is rated more likely than Both teams to score - No at 2.20: the market expects both teams to score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.65 |
No | 2.20 |
Double chance prediction
The shortest double-chance odds are for 12 at 1.32. X2 is available at 1.35 and 1X at 1.70.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.70 | 1.32 | 1.35 |
Team total goals prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Fenerbahce — 1 goal; Roma — 1.5 goals.
Fenerbahce team total
Fenerbahce team total: Over 0.5 at 1.35 is notably shorter than Under 0.5 at 2.95; at the 1-goal line, Over at 1.70 is shorter than Under at 2.10. At 1.5, the market prefers Under at 1.50, while Over is available at 2.55.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.95 | 0.5 | 1.35 |
2.10 | 1 | 1.70 |
1.50 | 1.5 | 2.55 |
Roma team total
Roma team total: Over 0.5 at 1.17 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 at 4.15, while at the 1-goal line the odds are 1.35 versus 2.90. At 1.5, the odds are close: Under at 1.80 and Over at 1.95. At the 2-goal line, Under at 1.35 is notably shorter than Over at 2.90.
Under | Team total | Over |
4.15 | 0.5 | 1.17 |
2.90 | 1 | 1.35 |
1.80 | 1.5 | 1.95 |
1.35 | 2 | 2.90 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Jesus Gil Manzano (Spain)
Matches — 10 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 23;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows — 4.2;
Matches with red cards — 3 out of 10;
Matches with penalties — 4 out of 10.
