Odds overview
Como are favourites in the 1X2 market: a Como win is 2.08, compared with 3.40 for Fiorentina and 3.65 for the draw. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals is shorter at 1.67 than Under 2.5 goals at 2.20. For the handicap (0), Como are favoured at 1.55 over Fiorentina at 2.45.
Why Como are favourites
The bookmakers favour the visitors: Como are available at 2.08 to win, with a fair probability of around 45.8%. The draw is offered at 3.65 and a Fiorentina win at 3.40.
- The teams' league positions differ markedly: ahead of Matchday 7, Como are seventh, while Fiorentina are in the relegation zone.
- Despite the short recovery time after their away UEFA Champions League match against Feyenoord (2:3), Como are in excellent form — just one defeat in six league matches.
- Como have lost to Fiorentina only three times in their last 11 meetings.
Form and Line-up Fiorentina
After an impressive 4:2 win over Venezia, Fiorentina dropped points again. They first drew 1:1 with Napoli, then lost 1:2 to Genoa, conceding twice by the 15th minute.
- Fiorentina have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in their last 10 home Serie A matches.
- Fiorentina's opponents have taken fewer than 5.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 home Serie A matches.
- Fiorentina's opponents have been caught offside fewer than 1.5 times in 9 of their last 10 home Serie A matches.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): David de Gea, Álex Jiménez, Radu Drăgușin, Luca Ranieri, Víctor Valdepeñas, Cher Ndour, Christ Inao Oulaï, Nicolò Fagioli, Franco Mastantuono, Beto, Wilfried Gnonto.
Unavailable: Arthur Atta, Fabiano Parisi, Riccardo Sottil (all injured).
Form and Line-up Como
Como's last two league matches went badly — a 0:2 defeat to Frosinone and a 0:0 draw with Roma. Cesc Fàbregas's side also played their second UEFA Champions League match, losing 2:3 to Feyenoord, although they had thrashed RB Leipzig 4:1 in their first.
- Under 3.5 goals was recorded in 8 of Como's last 10 away Serie A matches.
- Como have had fewer offsides than their opponents or drawn on offsides in all their last 10 away Serie A matches.
- There were fewer than 9.5 shots on target in 8 of Como's last 10 away Serie A matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Jean Butez, Yan Couto, Jacobo Ramón, Trevoh Chalobah, Álex Valle, Lucas Da Cunha, Luis Milla, Jesus Rodriguez, Nico Paz, Martin Baturina, Anastasios Douvikas.
Unavailable: Moise Kean, Assane Diao (both injured).
Teams' chances
A Como win has a fair probability of 45.8%, with odds of 2.08 and fair odds of 2.18. The figures for a Fiorentina win are 28.0%, 3.40 and 3.57; for the draw, they are 26.1%, 3.65 and 3.83.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina win | 3.40 | 3.57 | 28.0% |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.83 | 26.1% |
| Como win | 2.08 | 2.18 | 45.8% |
Total goals prediction
Over 2.5 goals is offered at 1.67, compared with 2.20 for Under 2.5 goals. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals is shorter at 1.50, while Over 3.5 goals is 2.50.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.20 | 1.67 |
| 3.5 | 1.50 | 2.50 |
Handicap prediction
Como (-1.5) are shorter at 3.50 than Fiorentina (-1.5) at 5.80. For the +1.5 handicap, the shortest odds are Como (+1.5) at 1.09 and Fiorentina (+1.5) at 1.25; at -1, Como (-1) are 2.85 against 5.10 for Fiorentina (-1), while at +1, Como (+1) are 1.11 against 1.37 for Fiorentina (+1). On the handicap (0), Como are shorter at 1.55 than Fiorentina at 2.45.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 5.80 | -1.5 | 3.50 |
| 1.25 | 1.5 | 1.09 |
| 5.10 | -1 | 2.85 |
| 1.37 | 1 | 1.11 |
| 2.45 | 0 | 1.55 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.57 looks more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.30; the latter means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.57 |
| No | 2.30 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
73/100
|
29/100
|
29/100
|
| 888sport |
3/4
|
1/4
|
3/10
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team goal lines: Fiorentina — 1 goal; Como — 1.5 goals.
Fiorentina team goals
Fiorentina team goals: Over 0.5 at 1.30 is shorter than Under 0.5 at 3.20, while Over 1 at 1.60 is shorter than Under 1 at 2.25. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is favoured at 1.55, while Over 1.5 is available at 2.40.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.20 | 0.5 | 1.30 |
| 2.25 | 1 | 1.60 |
| 1.55 | 1.5 | 2.40 |
Como team goals
Como team goals: Over 0.5 at 1.14 is much shorter than Under 0.5 at 4.70, while Over 1 at 1.30 is shorter than Under 1 at 3.25. At the 1.5-goal line, the odds are almost equal: Under 1.5 is 1.85 and Over 1.5 is 1.90. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is shorter at 1.40 than Over 2 at 2.70.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.70 | 0.5 | 1.14 |
| 3.25 | 1 | 1.30 |
| 1.85 | 1.5 | 1.90 |
| 1.40 | 2 | 2.70 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Marco Di Bello (Italy)
Matches — 15 (Serie A, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 25;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 2.4;
Matches with a red card — 1 of 15;
Matches with a penalty — 3 of 15.
