Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, Napoli are favourites: Napoli to win is 2.20, while Fiorentina to win and the draw are around 3.30–3.45. In the main 2.5 goals total, the odds are equal — Under 2.5 goals and Over 2.5 goals are both 1.90. Napoli Draw No Bet at 1.60 is rated higher than Fiorentina Draw No Bet at 2.30.
Why Napoli are favourites for the match
Bookmakers favour the visitors: odds on a Napoli win are 2.20, while a Fiorentina win is available at 3.30 and the draw at 3.45.
• An unconvincing start to the season for Fiorentina: after four rounds, they are 15th with 3 points and a goal difference of 5:11.
• The hosts' defensive inconsistency: at the start of the season, they suffered heavy defeats to Roma (0:4) and Frosinone (0:3), and also lost to Torino (1:2).
Form and Line-up Fiorentina
Fiorentina halted their negative run with wins over Venezia (4:2) in Serie A and Pisa (3:0) in the Coppa Italia. However, the turnaround came only after Fabio Grosso was dismissed and Paolo Vanoli returned to the managerial role. Their home league matches have been low-scoring: no more than three goals were scored in 9 of their last 10 home games.
Despite a lack of consistency, the team create chances in attack: Fiorentina's xG stands at 1.65.
- Fiorentina scored no more than one goal in 9 of their last 10 home Serie A matches.
- Fiorentina had at least 12 shots in 8 of their last 10 home Serie A matches.
- Fiorentina's opponents took no more than five corners in 9 of their last 10 home Serie A matches.
Probable Fiorentina line-up (4-3-3): David de Gea, Álex Jiménez, Radu Drăgușin, Luca Ranieri, Vieri, Nicolò Fagioli, Franco Mastantuono, Cher Ndour, Arthur Atta, Alieu Njie, Beto
Absentees: Fabiano Parisi (injured)
Form and Line-up Napoli
Napoli beat Bologna (1:0) at home in the domestic league, although they had previously lost to London side Arsenal (0:1) at home in the UEFA Champions League.
The team maintain their shape well away from home: Napoli have not lost to their opponents on the number of offsides in any of their last 10 away Serie A matches.
- Napoli had at least four shots on target in 8 of their last 10 away Serie A matches.
- No more than 10 corners were taken in 9 of Napoli's last 10 away Serie A matches.
- Napoli received no more than two yellow cards in each of their last 10 Serie A matches.
Probable Napoli line-up (4-2-3-1): Vanja Milinković-Savić, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Amir Rrahmani, Rafael Marín, Leonardo Spinazzola, Billy Gilmour, Kevin De Bruyne, Stanislav Lobotka, Antonio Vergara, Matteo Politano, Rasmus Højlund
Absentees: Frank Anguissa, Alisson Santos, Alessandro Buongiorno, Alex Meret, Giovane, Luca Marianucci (injured), Scott McTominay (heart problems)
Team chances
Napoli are favourites by the fair-odds assessment: Napoli to win has a probability of 43.4% and fair odds of 2.30, compared with average odds of 2.20. Fiorentina to win has figures of 28.9%, 3.46 and 3.30 respectively, while the draw has 27.7%, 3.61 and 3.45.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina win | 3.30 | 3.46 | 28.9% |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.61 | 27.7% |
| Napoli win | 2.20 | 2.30 | 43.4% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals and Over 2.5 goals are both available at 1.90, which does not favour either option. At the 3.5 line, Under 3.5 goals at 1.35 is notably more favoured than Over 3.5 goals at 2.95.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.90 | 1.90 |
| 3.5 | 1.35 | 2.95 |
Handicap prediction
In the handicap market, Fiorentina (-1.5) at 6.20 has longer odds than Napoli (-1.5) at 3.85, while Fiorentina (+1.5) and Napoli (+1.5) are 1.22 and 1.07. For the -1 handicap, odds are 5.40 on Fiorentina (-1) and 3.10 on Napoli (-1); for the +1 handicap, they are 1.30 on Fiorentina (+1) and 1.10 on Napoli (+1). In the Draw No Bet market, Napoli at 1.60 are more favoured than Fiorentina at 2.30.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 6.20 | -1.5 | 3.85 |
| 1.22 | 1.5 | 1.07 |
| 5.40 | -1 | 3.10 |
| 1.30 | 1 | 1.10 |
| 2.30 | 0 | 1.60 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - Yes at 1.70 has shorter odds than Both teams to score - No at 2.10, so the market leans more towards both teams scoring.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.70 |
| No | 2.10 |
Double chance forecast
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Fiorentina — 1 goal, Napoli — 1.5 goals.
Fiorentina team total
Fiorentina team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.35 has shorter odds than Under 0.5 goals at 2.90. At the 1-goal line, Over 1 goal at 1.78 is slightly more favoured than Under 1 goal at 2.00, while at 1.5, Under 1.5 goals at 1.40 has notably shorter odds than Over 1.5 goals at 2.70.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.90 | 0.5 | 1.35 |
| 2.00 | 1 | 1.78 |
| 1.40 | 1.5 | 2.70 |
Napoli team total
Napoli team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.20 has substantially shorter odds than Under 0.5 goals at 4.20, while Over 1 goal at 1.40 has shorter odds than Under 1 goal at 2.70. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals at 1.70 is more favoured than Over 1.5 goals at 2.08; at the 2-goal line, Under 2 goals at 1.30 is against Over 2 goals at 3.25.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.20 | 0.5 | 1.20 |
| 2.70 | 1 | 1.40 |
| 1.70 | 1.5 | 2.08 |
| 1.30 | 2 | 3.25 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Daniele Doveri (Italy)
Matches — 20 (Serie A, 2025/26);
Average fouls per match — 23;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.2;
Matches with red cards — 1 out of 20;
Matches with penalties — 3 out of 20.
