Odds overview
Flamengo to win at 1.35 are clear favourites compared with the draw at 5.20 and Independiente del Valle to win at 8.00. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 is available at around 1.70, compared with 2.17 for Under 2.5. Independiente del Valle (+1.5) at 1.80 has shorter odds than Flamengo (-1.5) at 2.00.
Why Flamengo are favourites for the match
Bookmakers give the home side a clear advantage: Flamengo to win is offered at 1.35 (a 70% fair probability), while Independiente del Valle are available at 8.00 (11.8%) and the draw at 5.20 (18.2%).
- The Brazilian club have dominated at home in the Copa Libertadores, winning nine consecutive home matches in the competition.
- The hosts have a strong unbeaten run in the competition: Flamengo have not lost any of their last 10 Copa Libertadores matches.
Form and Line-up Flamengo
In the first quarter-final, Flamengo broke their opponents' resistance in the second half: Bruno Henrique opened the scoring in the 60th minute and Leo Pereira extended the lead in the 74th (2:0). In the domestic league, the team followed up that victory by beating Corinthians (2:1), returning to the top of the table with 57 points.
In this Copa Libertadores campaign, the hosts' attack are averaging two goals per match, the best record in the competition.
- Flamengo have registered at least four shots on target in each of their last 10 home Copa Libertadores matches.
- There have been at least eight corners in eight of Flamengo's last 10 home Copa Libertadores matches.
- Flamengo's opponents have received at least two yellow cards in each of their last 10 Copa Libertadores matches.
Probable Flamengo line-up (4-3-3): Agustin Rossi, Guillermo Varela, Leo Ortiz, Danilo, Ayrton Lucas, Erick Pulgar, Lucas Paqueta, Giorgian de Arrascaeta, Gonzalo Plata, Samuel Lino, Pedro.
Defender Leo Pereira is a doubt, with his fitness for the match not officially confirmed. Alex Sandro is available for selection, but his physical readiness to complete the full match remains in doubt.
Form and Line-up Independiente del Valle
Before travelling to Rio de Janeiro, Independiente beat Libertad Loja 3:2 in the Ecuadorian league. In the Copa Libertadores, the team have also maintained a high attacking output, averaging 1.67 goals per game — the third-best figure among the participants.
At the same time, the Ecuadorians have maintained their defensive and duelling discipline, committing no more than 10 fouls in 10 consecutive tournament matches.
- There have been at least eight corners in eight of Independiente's last 10 Copa Libertadores matches.
- There have been at least three offsides in nine of Independiente's last 10 away Copa Libertadores matches.
- At least two goals have been scored in nine of Independiente's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable Independiente del Valle line-up (5-3-2): Aldair Quintana, Layan Loor, Richard Schunke, Mateo Carabajal, Daykol Romero, Aron Rodriguez, Emerson Pata, Jordy Alcivar, Hugo Quintana, Junior Sornoza, Carlos Gonzalez.
Forward Carlos Gonzalez is a doubt after leaving the first match early through injury.
Team chances
Flamengo to win is available at 1.35, with fair odds of 1.43 and a 70% probability. The draw is quoted at 5.20, with fair odds of 5.50 and an 18.2% probability; Independiente del Valle to win is 8.00, 8.46 and 11.8% respectively.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo to win | 1.35 | 1.43 | 70.0% |
| Draw | 5.20 | 5.50 | 18.2% |
| Independiente del Valle to win | 8.00 | 8.46 | 11.8% |
Total goals prediction
For the 2.5 line, Under 2.5 is 2.17 and Over 2.5 is 1.70, so the market favours the higher-scoring option. For the 3.5 line, Under 3.5 is available at 1.47 compared with 2.60 for Over 3.5.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.17 | 1.70 |
| 3.5 | 1.47 | 2.60 |
Handicap prediction
Flamengo (-1.5) is available at 2.00, while Independiente del Valle (+1.5) is 1.80. On the 1 line, Flamengo (-1) is 1.53 and Independiente del Valle (+1) is 2.40. With a zero handicap, Flamengo Draw No Bet is 1.10 compared with 5.50 for Independiente del Valle Draw No Bet.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.80 | |
| 1.53 | -1 | |
| 1 | 2.40 | |
| 1.10 | 0 | 5.50 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - No has shorter odds at 1.75, compared with 2.00 for Both teams to score - Yes, so the market slightly favours at least one team not scoring.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 2.00 |
| No | 1.75 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
7/100
|
11/100
|
11/4
|
| William Hill |
2/25
|
9/50
|
19/10
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team totals prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Flamengo — 2 goals; Independiente del Valle — 0.5 goals.
Flamengo team total
Flamengo team total. Under 0.5 is 8.00 compared with 1.04 for Over 0.5; on the 1.5 line, Under 1.5 is 2.60 and Over 1.5 is 1.47. On the 2 line, Under 2 is 1.92 and Over 2 is 1.82, while for 2.5, Under 2.5 is available at 1.53 compared with 2.40 for Over 2.5.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 8.00 | 0.5 | 1.04 |
| 2.60 | 1.5 | 1.47 |
| 1.92 | 2 | 1.82 |
| 1.53 | 2.5 | 2.40 |
Independiente del Valle team total
Independiente del Valle team total. On the 0.5 line, Under 0.5 is available at 1.90 and Over 0.5 at 1.85. Under 1 is 1.27 compared with 3.40 for Over 1, while Under 1.5 is 1.13 compared with 4.90 for Over 1.5.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.90 | 0.5 | 1.85 |
| 1.27 | 1 | 3.40 |
| 1.13 | 1.5 | 4.90 |
