Odds overview
Frosinone Calcio have a slight edge in the 1X2 market: a home win is around 2.50, an away win 2.65 and a draw 3.65. In the main 2.5-goal totals market, Over is clearly favoured over Under — 1.47 against 2.60. Frosinone Calcio (0) are quoted at 1.85 in the handicap market, while Sassuolo (0) are 1.95.
Why there is no clear favourite
Bookmakers give the hosts the narrowest of edges: Frosinone Calcio to win is available at 2.50, the draw at 3.65 and Sassuolo to win at 2.65.
• Sassuolo are 11th in the table with 8 points after six rounds and have failed to win 9 of their last 10 away matches in Serie A.
• Frosinone Calcio are only two places higher, in ninth, and have two more points. They have also only just returned to Serie A after two seasons away.
• Sassuolo's squad is valued at almost twice as much as Frosinone Calcio's: €219 million compared with €114 million.
Form and Line-up Frosinone Calcio
In a recent Serie A match against Napoli, Frosinone Calcio lost 0:3, conceding a penalty and another goal before half-time, with the third coming in stoppage time. The hosts also trailed Napoli on xG, 0.79 to 3.53. The defeat dropped Massimiliano Alvini's side from sixth to ninth in Serie A.
- Frosinone Calcio took more than 4.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 Serie A home matches.
- Frosinone Calcio received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 Serie A home matches.
- Fewer than 2.5 goals were scored in the first half of all six Frosinone Calcio matches in the 2026/27 Serie A season.
Probable Frosinone Calcio line-up (4-2-3-1): Lorenzo Palmisani, Anthony Oyono, Gabriele Calvani, Giorgio Cittadini, Gabriele Bracaglia, Romano Schmid, Giacomo Calò, Patrizio Masini, Fares Ghedjemis, Antonio Raimondo, Giorgi Kvernadze
Absentees: Florian Grillitsch, Daniel Bîrligea (injured)
Form and Line-up Sassuolo
In the previous Serie A round, Sassuolo drew 1:1 at home to AC Milan, equalising from a corner. They have scored four goals from set pieces since the start of the league season, putting them joint top on that measure with Inter Milan and Lecce. Alberto Aquilani's side have taken just one point from three away matches in the 2026/27 Serie A season.
- Fewer than 25.5 fouls were recorded in 9 of Sassuolo's last 10 Serie A away matches.
- Sassuolo's matches produce 12.5 shots on target, the highest figure among all 20 Serie A clubs.
- Sassuolo have not lost the offside count in any of their last 10 Serie A matches.
- More than 3.5 cards were shown in 9 of Sassuolo's last 10 Serie A matches.
Probable Sassuolo line-up (4-3-3): Arijanet Muric, Ignace van der Brempt, Duje Ćaleta-Car, Cas Odenthal, Josh Doig, Vasilije Adžić, Nemanja Matić, Darryl Bakola, Domenico Berardi, Sebastiano Esposito, Armand Laurienté
Absentees: Fedde Leysen, Ismaël Koné, Daniel Boloca, Jay Idzes, Yeferson Paz (injured)
The teams' chances
The margin-free assessment puts Frosinone Calcio's win probability at 38.0%, with average odds of 2.50 and fair odds of 2.63. Sassuolo have a 35.9% win probability, with average odds of 2.65 and fair odds of 2.79. The draw is rated at 26.1%, with corresponding odds of 3.65 and 3.84.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone Calcio to win | 2.50 | 2.63 | 38.0% |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.84 | 26.1% |
| Sassuolo to win | 2.65 | 2.79 | 35.9% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals is offered at 2.60 and Over 2.5 at 1.47, indicating an expectation of at least three goals. At the 3.5-goal line, Under is favoured at 1.72 against 2.13 for Over.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.60 | 1.47 |
| 3.5 | 1.72 | 2.13 |
Handicap prediction
Frosinone Calcio (-1.5) and Sassuolo (-1.5) are quoted at almost identical odds — 4.20 and 4.15. Frosinone Calcio (+1.5) are available at 1.17 and Sassuolo (+1.5) at 1.20; Frosinone Calcio (-1) are 3.45 against 3.65 for Sassuolo (-1). Both teams are 1.25 at (+1), while Frosinone Calcio (0) have slightly shorter odds in the zero-handicap market: 1.85 against 1.95 for Sassuolo (0).
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.20 | -1.5 | 4.15 |
| 1.17 | 1.5 | 1.20 |
| 3.45 | -1 | 3.65 |
| 1.25 | 1 | 1.25 |
| 1.85 | 0 | 1.95 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes looks the more likely outcome at odds of 1.40. Both teams to score — No, meaning at least one team will fail to score, is offered at 2.70.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.40 |
| No | 2.70 |
Double chance forecast
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal lines for this match: Frosinone Calcio — 1.5 goals; Sassuolo — 1.5 goals.
Frosinone Calcio team goals
Frosinone Calcio team goals: Under 0.5 is 4.20 and Over 0.5 is 1.17; Under 1 is 3.00 and Over 1 is 1.35. At the 1.5-goal line, the odds are close: 1.85 for Under and 1.90 for Over. At the 2-goal line, Under is favoured at 1.40 against 2.70 for Over.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.20 | 0.5 | 1.17 |
| 3.00 | 1 | 1.35 |
| 1.85 | 1.5 | 1.90 |
| 1.40 | 2 | 2.70 |
Sassuolo team goals
Sassuolo team goals: Under 0.5 is available at 4.05 and Over 0.5 at 1.18; Under 1 is 2.70 and Over 1 is 1.40. Under 1.5 is offered at 1.75 and Over 1.5 at 2.02; at the 2-goal line, Under is favoured at 1.37 against 2.85 for Over.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.05 | 0.5 | 1.18 |
| 2.70 | 1 | 1.40 |
| 1.75 | 1.5 | 2.02 |
| 1.37 | 2 | 2.85 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Matteo Marchetti (Italy)
Matches — 13 (Serie A, 2025/26);
Average fouls per match — 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.5;
Matches with a red card — 3 of 13;
Matches with a penalty — 4 of 13.
