Odds Overview
Independiente are clear favourites: a home win is priced at 1.57, while the draw is rated at 3.80 and an away win at 6.10. On the main total, Under 2.5 at 1.65 looks preferable to Over 2.5 at 2.17. On the handicap, there is noticeably more confidence in Independiente (0) at 1.18 than in Deportes (0) at 4.10; at Independiente (-1), it is 1.98 against 1.78 on Deportes (+1).
Why Independiente del Valle Are Favourites for the Match
An Independiente win is priced at 1.57, while a Deportes success is available at 6.10.
Independiente have been convincing at home, avoiding defeat in 9 of their last 10 home matches in the Copa Libertadores.
Deportes have been outshot by their opponents in 9 of their last 10 away games in the Copa Libertadores.
Form and Line-up Independiente del Valle
In the first game on 18 August, Independiente won 1:0 away: after scoring, the team dropped their block, shut off the centre and played on the counter-attack. Earlier, the Ecuadorian club finished top of their Copa Libertadores group with 13 points.
At home, the team show high attacking activity. The Ecuadorians have scored at least one goal in their last 10 home matches in the tournament and have also had at least 4 shots on target in each of those games. Their expected goals (xG) figure is 1.93 — the second-best mark in the current edition of the tournament.
Key numbers:
Independiente were caught offside no more than 2 times in their last 10 home matches in the Copa Libertadores.
Independiente committed no more than 12 fouls in their last 10 home matches in the tournament.
Independiente received no more than 2 yellow cards in their last 10 matches in the Copa Libertadores.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Aldair Quintana — Layan Loor — Richard Schunke — Mateo Carabajal — Daykol Romero — Jordy Alcivar — Hugo Quintana — Emerson Pata — Junior Sornoza — Aron Rodriguez — Carlos Gonzalez
Form and Line-up Deportes Tolima
In the first home meeting, Deportes lost 0:1, although they increased the pressure in the second half and Junior Hernandez hit the post from a free-kick.
In away matches in the Copa Libertadores, the Colombian club often allow opponents to create chances: in 9 of their last 10 away games, opponents took at least 4 corners. At the same time, opponents are rarely caught offside — no more than 2 times in 9 of those 10 away matches.
Key numbers:
Deportes were caught offside no more than 2 times in 9 of their last 10 Copa Libertadores matches.
Deportes received at least 2 yellow cards in 8 of their last 10 away matches in the Copa Libertadores.
There were at least 8 corners in 9 of Deportes' last 10 away matches in the Copa Libertadores.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Neto Volpi — Junior Hernandez — Anderson Angulo — Jan Angulo — Jhersson Mosquera — Luis Sanchez — Sebastian Guzman — Omar Martinez — Kevin Flores — Adrian Parra — Jorge Hurtado
Brayan Rovira's participation in the match remains doubtful because of an injury.
Team Chances
A home win is quoted at 1.57; the no-margin estimate is 1.67 and the probability is 59.9%. The draw is offered at 3.80, with a no-margin estimate of 4.04 and a probability of 24.7%, while an away win is 6.10, with 6.49 and 15.4% respectively.
Result | Average odds | Average no-margin odds | No-margin probability |
Independiente del Valle to win | 1.57 | 1.67 | 59.9% |
Draw | 3.80 | 4.04 | 24.7% |
Deportes Tolima to win | 6.10 | 6.49 | 15.4% |
Total Goals Betting Tip
On the 2.5 line, Under is priced at 1.65 and Over at 2.17. For total 2, the odds favour Over 2 at 1.60 against 2.20 on Under 2. On the 3.5 line, Under 3.5 is rated at 1.20 and Over 3.5 at 3.95.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 1.65 | 2.17 |
2 | 2.20 | 1.60 |
3.5 | 1.20 | 3.95 |
Handicap Betting Tip
Independiente (-1.5) is offered at 2.60, while Deportes (+1.5) is 1.45. On the 1 line, the odds are 1.98 on Independiente (-1) and 1.78 on Deportes (+1). With a zero handicap, Independiente (0) is priced at 1.18 and Deportes (0) at 4.10.
Hosts | Handicap | Visitors |
2.60 | -1.5 | — |
— | 1.5 | 1.45 |
1.98 | -1 | — |
— | 1 | 1.78 |
1.18 | 0 | 4.10 |
Both Teams to Score Betting Tip
The Both teams to score — No option, under which at least one team will not score, is priced at 1.65 against 2.18 on Both teams to score — Yes.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 2.18 |
No | 1.65 |
Double Chance Betting Tip
Double chance 1X is priced at 1.11, 12 at 1.25 and X2 at 2.35; the option without a home win remains the most expensive.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.11 | 1.25 | 2.35 |
Team Total Betting Tip
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Independiente — 1.5 goals, Deportes — 0.5 goals.
Independiente del Valle Team Total
Independiente: Under 0.5 is priced at 4.60, Over 0.5 at 1.15; on the 1 line, it is 3.15 and 1.30 respectively. For total 1.5, the odds are 1.85 on Under 1.5 and Over 1.5, while on the 2 line Under 2 is rated at 1.40 against 2.70 on Over 2.
Under | Team total | Over |
4.60 | 0.5 | 1.15 |
3.15 | 1 | 1.30 |
1.85 | 1.5 | 1.85 |
1.40 | 2 | 2.70 |
Deportes Tolima Team Total
Deportes: on the 0.5 line, Under 0.5 is priced at 1.87 and Over 0.5 at 1.83. Under 1 is 1.23 against 3.75 on Over 1, while Under 1.5 is 1.11 against 5.30 on Over 1.5.
Under | Team total | Over |
1.87 | 0.5 | 1.83 |
1.23 | 1 | 3.75 |
1.11 | 1.5 | 5.30 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Dario Herrera (Argentina)
Matches – 7 (international fixtures, 2026);
Average fouls per match – 22;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 4.3;
Matches with red cards – 2 of 7;
Matches with penalties – 0 of 7.
