Odds overview
Inter Milan are clear favourites: an Inter win is available at around 1.35, compared with 5.50 for a draw and 8.00 for a Fiorentina win. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.42 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.65. Inter Milan Draw No Bet (0) at 1.10 is much shorter than Fiorentina Draw No Bet (0) at 5.40.
Why Inter Milan are favourites
The bookmakers' odds strongly favour the home side: Inter Milan are available to win at 1.35, Fiorentina at 8.00 and the draw at 5.50.
- The hosts have been remarkably resilient at home: Inter Milan have lost neither the match nor the shots-on-target count in their last 10 home Serie A games.
- The visitors have serious defensive problems: Fiorentina concede an average of 2.43 goals per game, the worst record in the league.
Form and Line-up Inter Milan
Inter Milan are performing well in Serie A, having beaten Parma 3:0 and won away at Bologna 3:1. Going into this match, they lead Serie A for expected goals (xG 2.87).
This week, Inter Milan played Shakhtar Donetsk in the UEFA Champions League, winning 1:0. Their congested schedule ahead of this league match makes selective rotation of the starting line-up more likely.
- Inter Milan have scored more than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 home Serie A matches.
- Inter Milan have had more than 11.5 shots in each of their last 10 home Serie A matches.
- At least one first-half goal has been scored in 6 of Inter Milan's 7 Serie A matches in the 2026/27 season.
Probable line-up (3-5-2): Josep Martínez, Manuel Akanji, Alessandro Bastoni, Carlos Augusto, Djed Spence, Nicolò Barella, Hakan Çalhanoğlu, Petar Sučić, Federico Dimarco, Marcus Thuram, Ange-Yoan Bonny.
Benjamin Pavard has suffered an adductor injury and is doubtful for the match.
Form and Line-up Fiorentina
Fiorentina have yet to find consistency: they lost 1:3 at home to Como, lost 1:2 away at Genoa and drew 1:1 with Napoli.
Fiorentina have not been particularly effective in attack away from home: they have had fewer than 13.5 shots in 9 of their last 10 away Serie A matches.
- Fiorentina have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 Serie A matches.
- Fiorentina have taken fewer than 5.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 away Serie A matches.
- Fiorentina have committed fewer than 13.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 away Serie A matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): David de Gea, Álex Jiménez, Radu Drăgușin, Marin Pongračić, Vieri, Nicolò Fagioli, Cher Ndour, Franco Mastantuono, Poté, Alieu Njie, Mateo Pellegrino.
Match outcome probabilities
An Inter Milan win is offered at 1.35, with fair odds of 1.41 and a 70.7% probability. The draw is available at 5.50, with fair odds of 5.76 and a 17.4% probability; the corresponding figures for a Fiorentina win are 8.00, 8.38 and 11.9%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without bookmaker margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Milan win | 1.35 | 1.41 | 70.7% |
| Draw | 5.50 | 5.76 | 17.4% |
| Fiorentina win | 8.00 | 8.38 | 11.9% |
Total goals analysis
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.42 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.65. At 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 at 1.75 has a slight edge over Over 3.5 at 2.05.
| Goals line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.65 | 1.42 |
| 3.5 | 1.75 | 2.05 |
Handicap analysis
At a -1.5 handicap line, Inter Milan (-1.5) and Fiorentina (+1.5) are both offered at 1.90. At the -1 line, Inter Milan (-1) at 1.50 is shorter than Fiorentina (+1) at 2.55, while Inter Milan Draw No Bet (0) at 1.10 is much shorter than Fiorentina Draw No Bet (0) at 5.40.
| Home team | Handicap | Away team |
|---|---|---|
| 1.90 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.90 | |
| 1.50 | -1 | |
| 1 | 2.55 | |
| 1.10 | 0 | 5.40 |
Both teams to score analysis
Both teams to score – Yes at 1.70 looks more likely than Both teams to score – No at 2.10, which means at least one team will not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.70 |
| No | 2.10 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
2/25
|
17/100
|
2/1
|
| 888sport |
1/10
|
17/100
|
2/1
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals analysis
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: 2.5 goals for Inter Milan and 0.5 goals for Fiorentina.
Inter Milan team goals
For Inter Milan's team goals, Over 2 at 1.55 is shorter than Under 2 at 2.35; at the 2.5 line, Under 2.5 at 1.72 is shorter than Over 2.5 at 2.05; at 3 goals, Under 3 at 1.38 looks much more likely than Over 3 at 2.80.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.35 | 2 | 1.55 |
| 1.72 | 2.5 | 2.05 |
| 1.38 | 3 | 2.80 |
Fiorentina team goals
For Fiorentina's team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.60 is shorter than Under 0.5 at 2.25; at the 1-goal line, Under 1 at 1.47 is shorter than Over 1 at 2.60, while Under 1.5 at 1.22 is much shorter than Over 1.5 at 3.80.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.25 | 0.5 | 1.60 |
| 1.47 | 1 | 2.60 |
| 1.22 | 1.5 | 3.80 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Maurizio Mariani (Italy)
Matches – 17 (Serie A, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match – 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 3.9;
Matches with a red card – 1 of 17;
Matches with a penalty – 6 of 17.
