Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, the home win at 2.65 holds a slight edge over the away win at 2.75, while the draw is available at 3.30. In the main total market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.73 is notably favoured over Over 2.5 goals at 2.10. In the handicap market, Home Draw No Bet at 1.85 is quoted slightly shorter than Away Draw No Bet at 1.95.
Why Le Havre are favourites
Bookmakers offer odds of 2.65 on a Le Havre win, 3.30 on the draw and 2.75 on Brest winning.
- Ahead of Matchday 3, the teams are close together in the table: Brest are 11th with 2 points, while Le Havre are 13th with 1 point.
- Brest have failed to win 9 of their last 10 away league matches, making it difficult for them to claim favouritism on the road.
- Le Havre have also gone winless in 9 of their last 10 Ligue 1 matches, which keeps the balance of probabilities even.
Form and Line-up Le Havre
In the opening rounds, Le Havre lost at home to Monaco (0:1) and drew away to Lyon (1:1). In the league's pre-match data, matches involving Le Havre average 1.5 goals — the lowest figure among all 18 clubs in the competition.
Key numbers:
- In 8 of Le Havre's last 10 Ligue 1 matches, they and their opponents scored no more than 2 goals
- In 9 of Le Havre's last 10 home Ligue 1 matches, their opponents scored no more than 1 goal
- In 9 of Le Havre's last 10 home Ligue 1 matches, they and their opponents were caught offside at least 3 times
Probable Le Havre line-up (3-4-3): Lionel Mpasi-Nzau — Ahmed Touba — Junior Mwanga — Ayumu Seko — Timothee Pembélé — Amir Richardson — Rassoul Ndiaye — Kaito Mizuta — Mbwana Samatta — Simon Ebonog — Djibril Uziad
Form and Line-up Brest
Brest began the league campaign with two draws: 2:2 away to Le Mans and 2:2 at home to Toulouse, with Ludovic Ajorque equalising in the 90+5th minute. In Ligue 1's pre-match data, the away side rank in the top three for goals scored (2.0 per game), although they have had fewer than 13.5 shot attempts in 9 of their last 10 away matches.
Key numbers:
- In 10 of Brest's last 10 away Ligue 1 matches, their opponents registered at least 4 shots on target
- In 8 of Brest's last 10 away Ligue 1 matches, they scored no more than 1 goal
- In 9 of Brest's last 10 away Ligue 1 matches, Brest registered no more than 4 shots on target
Probable Brest line-up (4-2-3-1): Egil Selvik — Bradley Locko — Gautier Lloris — Raphael Le Guen — Kenny Lala — Mamady Diambou — Joris Chotard — Pathe Mboup — Kamory Doumbia — Romain Del Castillo — Ludovic Ajorque
Brendan Chardonnet and Justin Bourgault were absent from Brest's previous match, but their availability for this fixture has not been confirmed.
Team chances
Home win: odds of 2.65, fair odds of 2.77 and a probability of 36.1%; draw: 3.30, 3.45 and 29.0%; away win: 2.75, 2.87 and 34.8%. The market barely separates the teams' chances, with the draw rated lower.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre win | 2.65 | 2.77 | 36.1% |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.45 | 29.0% |
| Brest win | 2.75 | 2.87 | 34.8% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.73, compared with 2.10 for Over 2.5 goals. For the line of 2, Over 2 goals is quoted shorter at 1.55, while Under 2 goals is 2.40. At 3.5, Under 3.5 goals holds a clear edge at 1.27, compared with 3.40 for Over 3.5 goals.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.73 | 2.10 |
| 2 | 2.40 | 1.55 |
| 3.5 | 1.27 | 3.40 |
Handicap prediction
The odds on Home (-1.5) and Away (-1.5) are close — 5.00 and 5.20. Home (+1.5) at 1.11 is slightly favoured over Away (+1.5) at 1.12; for the -1 line, they are 4.20 versus 4.30, and for the +1 line, 1.16 versus 1.17. In the Draw No Bet market, Home is 1.85 and Away is 1.95.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 5.00 | -1.5 | 5.20 |
| 1.11 | 1.5 | 1.12 |
| 4.20 | -1 | 4.30 |
| 1.16 | 1 | 1.17 |
| 1.85 | 0 | 1.95 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - Yes at 1.82 is quoted slightly shorter than Both teams to score - No at 1.93: the market is marginally more likely to expect goals from both teams than a scenario in which at least one fails to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.82 |
| No | 1.93 |
Double chance prediction
The lowest odds are for 12 — 1.35. 1X is available at 1.47 and X2 at 1.50, which are slightly higher.
| 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.47 | 1.35 | 1.50 |
Team total prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team totals for this match: Le Havre — 1 goal, Brest — 1 goal.
Le Havre team total
Le Havre team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.32 is notably shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 3.10; for the line of 1, Over 1 goal is 1.65 versus 2.15 for Under 1 goal; at 1.5, Under 1.5 goals is favoured at 1.50, while Over 1.5 goals is available at 2.50.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.10 | 0.5 | 1.32 |
| 2.15 | 1 | 1.65 |
| 1.50 | 1.5 | 2.50 |
Brest team total
Brest team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.35 is quoted substantially shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 2.95; for the line of 1, Over 1 goal at 1.72 is favoured over Under 1 goal at 2.05; at 1.5, Under 1.5 goals is 1.47 and Over 1.5 goals is 2.60.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.95 | 0.5 | 1.35 |
| 2.05 | 1 | 1.72 |
| 1.47 | 1.5 | 2.60 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Marc Bollengier (France)
Matches — 16 (Ligue 1, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 26;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.2;
Matches with red cards — 4 of 16;
Matches with penalties — 6 of 16.
