Odds overview
Paris Saint-Germain are clear favourites: an away win is available at 1.25, compared with 6.80 for a draw and 10.50 for a Le Havre win. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.32 is clearly favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 3.10. In the handicap markets, Paris Saint-Germain (-1.5) are quoted at 1.63 against 2.25 for Le Havre (+1.5), while Paris Saint-Germain (-1) are at 1.30 against 3.15 for Le Havre (+1). At a zero handicap, Paris Saint-Germain (0) at 1.06 are much shorter than Le Havre (0) at 6.80.
Why Paris Saint-Germain are favourites
Bookmakers make Paris Saint-Germain clear favourites, with an away win at 1.25. A draw is offered at 6.80 and a Le Havre win at 10.50.
- League positions: Paris Saint-Germain top the table with 17 points after 8 matches, while Le Havre are bottom with 2 points.
- Le Havre have taken just 1 point from their four home Ligue 1 matches this season.
- Paris Saint-Germain have won the previous four Ligue 1 meetings between the sides.
Form and Line-up Le Havre
In their latest home match on 18 October, Le Havre lost 1:3 to Auxerre, who were also near the bottom of the table, further worsening their position. They are now five points adrift of the relegation play-off place in 18th. Head coach Didier Digard remains in charge despite the difficult start. He stressed that, in their current situation, the team cannot simply react to events. He linked their problems to poor spells at the start of matches and lapses of concentration at set pieces.
- Le Havre scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 home Ligue 1 matches.
- Le Havre had fewer than 7.5 shots on target per match across their last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable Le Havre line-up (3-5-2): Gauthier Gallon, Djibril Ouziad, Ayumu Seko, Junior Mwanga, Ahmed Touba, Enzo Koffi, Rassoul Ndiaye, Simon Ebonog, Amir Richardson, Rayan Fofana, Ali Samatta
Absentees: Lionel Mpasi-Nzau, Elias Jelert, Felix Mambimbi, Timothée Pembélé (injured)
Form and Line-up Paris Saint-Germain
Paris Saint-Germain travel with a congested schedule: their previous league match against Lyon was postponed, so the club ended up playing this Monday. The absence of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Ousmane Dembélé, Marquinhos and Nuno Mendes did not prevent Luis Enrique's side from beating a strong Lyon team 2:0 without conceding. That victory put the Paris club top of Ligue 1 for the first time this season.
- Paris Saint-Germain scored at least one goal in each of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Paris Saint-Germain's opponents had fewer than 9.5 shots on target in each of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Paris Saint-Germain scored fewer than 3.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 away Ligue 1 matches.
Probable Paris Saint-Germain line-up (4-3-3): Matvei Safonov, Achraf Hakimi, Ilya Zabarnyi, Willian Pacho, Lucas Digne, Warren Zaïre-Emery, João Neves, Senny Mayulu, Mika Godts, Ferran Torres, Maghnes Akliouche
Absentees: Marquinhos, Nuno Mendes, Ousmane Dembélé, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (injured)
The teams' chances
The margin-free assessment gives Le Havre a 9.1% chance of winning, with fair odds of 10.94; a draw has a 14.1% chance and fair odds of 7.09; and a Paris Saint-Germain win has a 76.8% chance and fair odds of 1.30. The average odds are 10.50 for a Le Havre win, 6.80 for a draw and 1.25 for a Paris Saint-Germain win.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre win | 10.50 | 10.94 | 9.1% |
| Draw | 6.80 | 7.09 | 14.1% |
| Paris Saint-Germain win | 1.25 | 1.30 | 76.8% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.32 is considerably more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 3.10. At 3.5 goals, the odds are closer: Over 3.5 goals is offered at 1.83 and Under 3.5 goals at 1.97.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 3.10 | 1.32 |
| 3.5 | 1.97 | 1.83 |
Handicap prediction
Paris Saint-Germain (-1.5) at 1.63 are shorter than Le Havre (+1.5) at 2.25. The gap is wider at the -1/+1 handicap line: Paris Saint-Germain (-1) are at 1.30 against 3.15 for Le Havre (+1). At a zero handicap, Paris Saint-Germain (0) at 1.06 look much more likely than Le Havre (0) at 6.80.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 1.63 | |
| 2.25 | 1.5 | |
| -1 | 1.30 | |
| 3.15 | 1 | |
| 6.80 | 0 | 1.06 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – Yes at 1.70 looks more likely than Both teams to score – No at 2.07, a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.70 |
| No | 2.07 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
3/1
|
11/100
|
1/20
|
| 888sport |
29/10
|
11/100
|
3/50
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Le Havre — 0.5 goals; Paris Saint-Germain — 2.5 goals.
Le Havre team total goals
For Le Havre, Over 0.5 goals is available at 1.65 against 2.15 for Under 0.5 goals. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal at 1.38 is much shorter than Over 1 goal at 2.80, while at 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 goals is at 1.20 against 4.20 for Over 1.5 goals.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.15 | 0.5 | 1.65 |
| 1.38 | 1 | 2.80 |
| 1.20 | 1.5 | 4.20 |
Paris Saint-Germain team total goals
For Paris Saint-Germain, Over 2 goals at 1.35 is considerably shorter than Under 2 goals at 3.00. At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals is offered at 1.72 and Under 2.5 goals at 2.05; at 3 goals, Under 3 goals is favoured at 1.65 against 2.17 for Over 3 goals.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.00 | 2 | 1.35 |
| 2.05 | 2.5 | 1.72 |
| 1.65 | 3 | 2.17 |
Who Will Referee the Match
François Letexier (France)
Matches – 23 (Ligue 1, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match – 23;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 4.3;
Matches with a red card – 9 out of 23;
Matches with a penalty – 6 out of 23.
