Odds overview
Bologna are favourites to win at 1.90, while a draw is available at 3.35 and a Lecce win at 4.50. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.73 is shorter than Over 2.5 goals at 2.10, suggesting a relatively low-scoring match. The visitors are also favoured in the handicap (0) market: Bologna Draw No Bet (0) is available at 1.35, compared with 2.90 for Lecce Draw No Bet (0).
Why Bologna are favourites
The bookmakers favour the visitors: Bologna are available to win at 1.90, a draw at 3.35 and a Lecce victory at 4.50.
• Bologna are well organised defensively, conceding an average of 1.2 goals per game at the start of the season — fewer than second-placed Inter.
• Lecce have the least valuable squad in Serie A, valued at €82.5 million. Bologna's players, by contrast, are worth €229 million in total, placing them 10th.
Form and Line-up Lecce
Despite conceding 10 goals, Lecce sit 12th after five rounds. They have conceded at least twice on three occasions, but Eusebio Di Francesco's side have still managed two wins, beating Venezia 2:0 and Monza 3:2. Notably, both opponents returned to the top flight this summer.
- Lecce have taken fewer than 5.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 home matches in Serie A.
- There have been fewer than 9.5 shots on target in 8 of Lecce's last 10 home matches in Serie A.
- Lecce have received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in all of their last 10 home matches in Serie A.
Probable Lecce line-up (4-3-3): Wladimiro Falcone, Danilo Veiga, Kialonda Gaspar, Jamil Siebert, Antonino Gallo, Youssef Maleh, Ivan Ilić, Lassana Coulibaly, Joël Monteiro, Nikola Štulić, Santiago Pierotti
Absentees: Medon Berisha, Willem Geubbels (doubtful)
Form and Line-up Bologna
Having finished eighth last season, Bologna's position of 18th after the first month of Serie A is deeply disappointing. Their defence has been fairly solid, conceding 1.2 goals per game, but their attack is struggling: only fellow strugglers Genoa have scored as few as three goals. Raffaele Palladino has every player available except Emil Holm and Jens Odgaard, but Bologna have yet to win a match. They have managed only two draws.
- There have been more than 2.5 offsides in each of Bologna's last 10 away matches in Serie A.
- There have been fewer than 9.5 shots on target in 9 of Bologna's last 10 away matches in Serie A.
- Bologna have taken fewer than 4.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 away matches in Serie A.
Probable Bologna line-up (3-4-3): Lukasz Skorupski, Eivind Helland, Torbjørn Heggem, Arthur Theate, Nadir Zortea, Tommaso Pobega, Lewis Ferguson, Juan Miranda, Federico Bernardeschi, Riccardo Orsolini, Roberto Piccoli
Absentees: Emil Holm, Jens Odgaard (doubtful)
The teams' chances
Bologna's win has a margin-free probability of 50.3%, with odds of 1.90 and fair odds of 1.99. The draw is rated at 28.5%, with odds of 3.35 against fair odds of 3.51. Lecce's win has a 21.2% probability, with odds of 4.50 and fair odds of 4.71.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce to win | 4.50 | 4.71 | 21.2% |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.51 | 28.5% |
| Bologna to win | 1.90 | 1.99 | 50.3% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals at 1.73 is favoured over Over 2.5 goals at 2.10. At the 2-goal line, Over 2 goals at 1.53 is considerably shorter than Under 2 goals at 2.40. At 3.5 goals, the market leans more strongly towards Under 3.5 goals at 1.27, while Over 3.5 goals is available at 3.40.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.73 | 2.10 |
| 2 | 2.40 | 1.53 |
| 3.5 | 1.27 | 3.40 |
Handicap prediction
Bologna (-1.5) at 3.45 have longer odds than Lecce (+1.5) at 1.27. At the 1-goal handicap line, Bologna (-1) are available at 2.75 and Lecce (+1) at 1.45. With a handicap of 0, Bologna Draw No Bet (0) at 1.35 are favoured over Lecce Draw No Bet (0) at 2.90.
| Home team | Handicap | Away team |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3.45 | |
| 1.27 | 1.5 | |
| -1 | 2.75 | |
| 1.45 | 1 | |
| 2.90 | 0 | 1.35 |
Both teams to score prediction
The market barely separates the two options: Both teams to score – No is available at 1.87, and Both teams to score – Yes at 1.88. The No option means at least one team will not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.88 |
| No | 1.87 |
Double chance forecast
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team goal totals: Lecce — 1 goal; Bologna — 1.5 goals.
Lecce team total goals
For Lecce's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.55 is shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 2.35. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal is available at 1.58 against 2.30 for Over 1 goal; at 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 goals is 1.25 against 3.45 for Over 1.5 goals.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.35 | 0.5 | 1.55 |
| 1.58 | 1 | 2.30 |
| 1.25 | 1.5 | 3.45 |
Bologna team total goals
For Bologna's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.18 is much shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 4.15, while Over 1 goal at 1.35 is shorter than Under 1 goal at 3.00. The odds at the 1.5-goal line are close: Under 1.5 goals is 1.75 and Over 1.5 goals is 2.03. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 goals is favoured at 1.30, while Over 2 goals is available at 3.25.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.15 | 0.5 | 1.18 |
| 3.00 | 1 | 1.35 |
| 1.75 | 1.5 | 2.03 |
| 1.30 | 2 | 3.25 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Luca Pairetto (Italy)
Matches — 12 (Serie A, 2025/26, 2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 25;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.6;
Matches with a red card — 3 of 12;
Matches with a penalty — 6 of 12.
