Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, Lecce hold a slight edge: a home win is 2.70, while an away win is 2.85 and the draw is 3.10. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.63 is considerably more likely than Over 2.5 goals at 2.25. In the handicap market, Lecce Draw No Bet at 1.85 is shorter than Monza Draw No Bet at 1.95.
Why Lecce are favourites for the match
Lecce to win is available at 2.70, the draw at 3.10 and Monza to win at 2.85. The arguments for this assessment are:
Monza have been poor away from home — they have failed to win nine of their last ten Serie A away matches.
Lecce are at home, and home advantage becomes a decisive factor against teams that cannot win away.
Lecce have not lost to Monza in eight consecutive matches.
Form and Line-up Lecce
Lecce have begun the new Serie A season with three points from three matches and are 14th. They lost at home to Roma (0:4), lost away to Cagliari (0:1) and beat Venezia (2:0). The home side have also already been knocked out of the Coppa Italia by Palermo (0:2).
Key numbers:
Lecce have taken no more than 5 corners in 9 of their last 10 Serie A home matches.
In 9 of 10 Serie A home matches, Lecce have registered no more than 4 shots on target.
Lecce have received no more than 2 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 Serie A home games.
Probable Lecce line-up (4-3-3): Wladimiro Falcone — Danilo Veiga, Kialonda Gaspar, Tiago Gabriel, Antonino Gallo — Lassana Coulibaly, Umer Ngom, Ivan Ilic — Santiago Pierotti, Nikola Stulic, Joel Monteiro.
Absentees: Willem Geubbels (injury).
Form and Line-up Monza
Monza have made an uneven start to the Serie A season: they first lost to Inter (1:4) and Udinese (2:3), before drawing with Parma (1:1). In the Coppa Italia, the visitors have made notable progress — beating Avellino (3:0) and Torino (1:0).
Key numbers:
Monza have taken no more than 5 corners in 8 of their last 10 Serie A away matches.
In 8 of their last 10 Serie A away matches, Monza have scored no more than 1 goal.
Monza have registered no more than 4 shots on target in 9 of their last 10 Serie A away games.
Probable Monza line-up (3-4-3): Demba Thiam — Eddy Kouadio, Lorenzo Lucchesi, Andrea Carboni — Samuele Birindelli, Michael FoloRunsho, Ebenezer Akinsanmiro, Ricardo Mangas — Andrea Colpani, Dany Mota, Jay Robinson.
Absentees: Matteo Pessina, Idrissa Toure, Gustavo Varela, Jan Ziolkowski, Patrick Cutrone, Patrick Ciurria (all injured).
Team chances
According to the no-margin assessment, a home win has a 35.5% probability at odds of 2.70 and fair odds of 2.82. An away win is assessed at 33.6%: 2.85 against fair odds of 2.97. The draw ranks third, with a 30.9% probability, odds of 3.10 and fair odds of 3.24.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
Lecce to win | 2.70 | 2.82 | 35.5% |
Draw | 3.10 | 3.24 | 30.9% |
Monza to win | 2.85 | 2.97 | 33.6% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals is 1.63, compared with 2.25 for Over 2.5 goals. At the 2-goal line, Over 2 goals at 1.72 is preferred, while Under 2 goals is 2.07. At 3.5, Under 3.5 goals is quoted at 1.20 and Over 3.5 goals at 4.00.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 1.63 | 2.25 |
2 | 2.07 | 1.72 |
3.5 | 1.20 | 4.00 |
Handicap prediction
Lecce (-1.5) are offered at 5.60 and Monza (-1.5) at 5.90. Lecce (+1.5) and Monza (+1.5) are almost level: 1.08 and 1.09. For the -1 line, the odds are 4.70 for Lecce (-1) and 4.90 for Monza (-1); for the +1 line, they are 1.13 for Lecce (+1) and 1.14 for Monza (+1). In the Draw No Bet market, Lecce at 1.85 are shorter than Monza at 1.95.
Home | Handicap | Away |
5.60 | -1.5 | 5.90 |
1.08 | 1.5 | 1.09 |
4.70 | -1 | 4.90 |
1.13 | 1 | 1.14 |
1.85 | 0 | 1.95 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - Yes and Both teams to score - No are priced equally at 1.88; the market does not favour either option. The Both teams to score - No bet implies that at least one team will not score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.88 |
No | 1.88 |
Double chance prediction
The shortest double-chance odds are 1.40 for 12. The 1X option is 1.45 and X2 is 1.50, so a draw is slightly less expected in the scenario where Monza do not lose than in the scenario where Lecce do not lose.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.45 | 1.40 | 1.50 |
Team total prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Lecce — 1 goal, Monza — 1 goal.
Lecce team total
Lecce team total: at the 0.5 line, Over 0.5 goals at 1.35 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 2.90. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal at 1.95 and Over 1 goal at 1.80 are close. At 1.5, Under 1.5 goals at 1.40 is preferred over Over 1.5 goals at 2.70.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.90 | 0.5 | 1.35 |
1.95 | 1 | 1.80 |
1.40 | 1.5 | 2.70 |
Monza team total
Monza team total: at the 0.5 line, Over 0.5 goals is 1.38, compared with 2.80 for Under 0.5 goals. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal at 1.85 is slightly shorter than Over 1 goal at 1.90. At 1.5, Under 1.5 goals is 1.37 and Over 1.5 goals is 2.85.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.80 | 0.5 | 1.38 |
1.85 | 1 | 1.90 |
1.37 | 1.5 | 2.85 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Valerio Crezzini (Italy)
Matches — 1 (Serie A 2026/27, 2026/27 season up to 11 September 2026)
Average fouls per match — 19
Average yellow cards per match — 0
