Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, Lens are slight favourites to win at around 2.35, compared with 2.85 for Paris; the draw is 3.60. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals looks more likely than Under 2.5 at 1.67 against 2.20. In the main handicap market, Lens (0) are offered at 1.73, while Paris (0) are 2.10.
Why Lens are favourites
Bookmakers favour the hosts: a Lens win is available at 2.35, a Paris win at 2.85 and a draw at 3.60.
Lens have won two of their three home matches, losing only to Lorient (0:1).
Paris also lost away to Lorient (0:1) but managed a goalless draw with Troyes (0:0).
Lens have won four consecutive meetings with Paris by an aggregate score of 11:2.
Form and Line-up Lens
In the latest round of Ligue 1, Lens beat Troyes 3:1 away from home. Before that, they defeated Lyon 2:1 at home, conceding their only goal while a player down in the 85th minute.
- Lens had more than 4.5 shots on target in 9 of their last 10 Ligue 1 home matches.
- Lens had more than 11.5 shots, including blocked efforts, in 9 of their last 10 Ligue 1 home matches.
- Lens's opponents took fewer than 4.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 Ligue 1 home matches.
Probable Lens line-up (3-4-2-1): Robin Risser, Jean-Clair Todibo, Ismaëlo Ganiou, Kyllian Antonio, Rubén Aguilar, Andrija Bulatović, Yassine Titraoui, Matthieu Udol, Florian Sotoca, Florian Thauvin, Odsonne Edouard.
Absentees: Mike Nawrocki, Abdallah Sima (both injured), Jonathan Gradit, Ismaëlo Ganiou (both doubtful).
Form and Line-up Paris
Paris head into this away match after an entertaining 4:3 win over Rennes, in which they had nine shots on target, although their opponents scored three penalties. Before that, the capital club suffered their only league defeat so far, losing 0:1 away to Lorient.
- Paris's opponents took more than 4.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 Ligue 1 away matches.
- Paris's opponents committed fewer than 13.5 fouls in each of their last 10 Ligue 1 away matches.
- Fewer than 3.5 goals were scored in 8 of Paris's last 10 Ligue 1 away matches.
Probable Paris line-up (4-2-3-1): Kevin Trapp, Adama Camara, Diego Coppola, Samir Chergui, Hamari Traoré, Pierre Lees Melou, Maxime Lopez, Ilan Kebbal, Pablo Pagis, Luca Koleosho, Lassine Sinayoko.
Absentees: Nhoa Sangui (injured), Nanitamo Ikoné (doubtful).
Team chances
A Lens win is available at 2.35, with fair odds of 2.48 and a 40.4% probability. The draw is 3.60, with fair odds of 3.80 and a 26.3% probability. A Paris win is offered at 2.85, with fair odds of 3.00 and a 33.3% probability.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lens win | 2.35 | 2.48 | 40.4% |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.80 | 26.3% |
| Paris win | 2.85 | 3.00 | 33.3% |
Total goals betting
At the 2.5-goal line, Under is available at 2.20 and Over at 1.67, making Over the favoured option. At 3.5 goals, by contrast, Under at 1.50 is considerably shorter than Over at 2.50.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.20 | 1.67 |
| 3.5 | 1.50 | 2.50 |
Handicap betting
Lens (-1.5) are offered at 4.15 and Paris (-1.5) at 4.80. At the +1.5 handicap line, Lens (+1.5) are 1.13 and Paris (+1.5) are 1.20. Lens (-1) are quoted at 3.35 against 4.15 for Paris (-1), while Lens (+1) are 1.17 against 1.28 for Paris (+1). In the handicap (0) market, Lens at 1.73 are shorter than Paris at 2.10.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.15 | -1.5 | 4.80 |
| 1.13 | 1.5 | 1.20 |
| 3.35 | -1 | 4.15 |
| 1.17 | 1 | 1.28 |
| 1.73 | 0 | 2.10 |
Both teams to score betting
Both teams to score — Yes is quoted at 1.55, while Both teams to score — No, meaning at least one team will fail to score, is 2.35. The market leans noticeably towards both teams scoring.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.55 |
| No | 2.35 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
2/5
|
29/100
|
53/100
|
| 888sport |
2/5
|
29/100
|
61/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals betting
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Lens — 1.5 goals; Paris — 1.5 goals.
Lens team total goals
Lens team total goals: Under 0.5 is 4.10 and Over 0.5 is 1.18; Under 1 is 2.90 and Over 1 is 1.35. At 1.5, the odds are almost equal: 1.77 for Under and 1.97 for Over. At the 2-goal line, Under is 1.32 and Over is 3.05.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.10 | 0.5 | 1.18 |
| 2.90 | 1 | 1.35 |
| 1.77 | 1.5 | 1.97 |
| 1.32 | 2 | 3.05 |
Paris team total goals
Paris team total goals: Under 0.5 is 3.60 and Over 0.5 is 1.25; Under 1 is 2.50 and Over 1 is 1.50. At 1.5, Under is quoted at 1.60 against 2.25 for Over. At the 2-goal line, Under is 1.23 and Over is 3.75.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.60 | 0.5 | 1.25 |
| 2.50 | 1 | 1.50 |
| 1.60 | 1.5 | 2.25 |
| 1.23 | 2 | 3.75 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Mathieu Vernice (France)
Matches — 19 (Ligue 1, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 27;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.1;
Matches with a red card — 5 of 19;
Matches with a penalty — 6 of 19.
