Odds overview
Lille are favourites at 1.80 to win, while the draw and a Brest win are available at around 3.90 and 4.15. In the 2.5-goal market, Over 2.5 at 1.70 is shorter than Under 2.5 at 2.15; at 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 at 1.47 is shorter than Over 3.5 at 2.60. In the handicap markets, Lille (-1.5) at 2.90 are considerably shorter than Brest (-1.5) at 7.30, while Lille (+1.5) at 1.05 are shorter than Brest (+1.5) at 1.35. Lille also have shorter odds at the -1 and +1 handicap lines — 2.35 against 6.30 and 1.07 against 1.60 respectively. Lille (0) at 1.35 are favoured over Brest (0) at 2.90.
Why Lille are favourites
Bookmakers favour the hosts: a Lille win is available at 1.80, a Brest win at 4.15 and the draw at 3.90.
- The hosts have started well in Ligue 1 and established themselves near the top of the table: Lille have 13 points from six matches and sit second, while Brest are seventh with 8 points.
- Lille concede an average of just 0.67 goals per match and are joint top in the league for defensive record.
- Lille have lost just once in their last eight meetings with Brest.
Form and Line-up Lille
After losing 1:2 to Nice in the league, Lille beat Le Havre 1:0, scoring as early as the fifth minute. However, they lost their most recent match 0:3 to Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League, conceding three times in seven minutes.
- Nine of Lille's last 10 Ligue 1 home matches have finished with fewer than 3.5 goals.
- Lille have avoided defeat in nine of their last 10 Ligue 1 home matches.
- The two teams have registered fewer than 24.5 shots combined in eight of Lille's last 10 Ligue 1 home matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Berke Özer, Maxima Goffi, Tanguy Nianzou, Alexandre Ribeiro, Romain Perraud, Mads Kjærgaard, Nabil Bentaleb, Gaetan Perrin, Ngal'ayel Mukau, Dilane Bakwa, Olivier Giroud.
Unavailable: Tiago Santos and Hamza Igamane (both injured); Ethan Mbappé and Ayase Ueda (both doubtful).
Form and Line-up Brest
Brest come into the match after a resounding 5:1 win over Angers. The visitors are joint top of Ligue 1 for goals scored, averaging two per match. Before that, however, they suffered successive defeats to Paris Saint-Germain (0:1) and Auxerre (1:2).
- Eight of Brest's last 10 Ligue 1 away matches have finished with fewer than 3.5 goals.
- Brest have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in eight of their last 10 Ligue 1 away matches.
- The teams have taken more than 9.5 corners combined in nine of Brest's last 10 league away matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Egil Selvik, Kenny Lala, Lucas Tousart, Gautier Lloris, Bradley Locko, Joris Chotard, Hugo Magnetti, Mama Baldé, Kamory Doumbia, Pathé Mboup, Ludovic Ajorque.
Unavailable: Brendan Chardonnet, Raphaël Le Guen and Giovani Versini (all injured).
Teams' chances
A Lille win is quoted at 1.80, with fair odds of 1.90 and a fair probability of 52.8%. The corresponding figures are 3.90, 4.11 and 24.4% for the draw, and 4.15, 4.37 and 22.9% for a Brest win. Lille remain clear favourites, while the draw has slightly shorter odds than a Brest win.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille win | 1.80 | 1.90 | 52.8% |
| Draw | 3.90 | 4.11 | 24.4% |
| Brest win | 4.15 | 4.37 | 22.9% |
Total goals betting
Under 2.5 goals is available at 2.15 and Over 2.5 at 1.70, making three or more goals the favoured outcome. At the 3.5-goal line, the positions are reversed: Under 3.5 at 1.47 is considerably shorter than Over 3.5 at 2.60.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.15 | 1.70 |
| 3.5 | 1.47 | 2.60 |
Handicap betting
Lille (-1.5) are quoted at 2.90, compared with 7.30 for Brest (-1.5). At the +1.5 line, Lille (+1.5) at 1.05 are shorter than Brest (+1.5) at 1.35. At -1, Lille (-1) are offered at 2.35 and Brest (-1) at 6.30; at +1, the respective odds are 1.07 for Lille (+1) and 1.60 for Brest (+1). On the zero handicap, Lille (0) at 1.35 are favoured over Brest (0) at 2.90.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.90 | -1.5 | 7.30 |
| 1.05 | 1.5 | 1.35 |
| 2.35 | -1 | 6.30 |
| 1.07 | 1 | 1.60 |
| 1.35 | 0 | 2.90 |
Both teams to score betting
Both teams to score — Yes is quoted at 1.65, while Both teams to score — No is at 2.17. The shorter odds on Yes suggest that both teams are expected to score; No means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.65 |
| No | 2.17 |
Team total goals betting
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: 1.5 goals for Lille and 1 goal for Brest.
Lille team total goals
Lille's team goal totals: Under 0.5 — 5.10, Over 0.5 — 1.11; Under 1 — 3.65, Over 1 — 1.25. At the 1.5-goal line, the odds are close: Under 1.5 — 1.98 and Over 1.5 — 1.78. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is quoted at 1.52 and Over 2 at 2.45.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.10 | 0.5 | 1.11 |
| 3.65 | 1 | 1.25 |
| 1.98 | 1.5 | 1.78 |
| 1.52 | 2 | 2.45 |
Brest team total goals
Brest's team goal totals: Under 0.5 — 2.70, Over 0.5 — 1.40. At the 1-goal line, the odds are almost equal: Under 1 — 1.85 and Over 1 — 1.90. Under 1.5 at 1.35 is considerably shorter than Over 1.5 at 2.95.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.70 | 0.5 | 1.40 |
| 1.85 | 1 | 1.90 |
| 1.35 | 1.5 | 2.95 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Clément Turpin (France)
Matches — 19 (Ligue 1, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.1;
Matches with a red card — 3 of 19;
Matches with a penalty — 6 of 19.
