Odds overview
Monaco are favourites in the 1X2 market: a Monaco win is available at 2.05, while a Lorient win and a draw are around 3.70 and 3.45 respectively. The odds are close on the main 2.5-goal total — Under 2.5 at 1.87 is slightly favoured over Over 2.5 at 1.93. At a handicap of 0, Monaco (0) at 1.50 are considerably shorter than Lorient (0) at 2.60.
Why Monaco are favourites
The bookmakers favour the visitors: a Monaco win is offered at 2.05, a draw at 3.45 and a Lorient win at 3.70.
• Monaco regularly score against the Breton side: they have found the net at least once in 13 of their last 15 meetings and average 1.67 goals per game in Ligue 1 this season.
• Lorient have conceded very little so far this season, averaging 1.0 goal per game, but their defence will struggle to contain Monaco's potent attack.
• The visitors' trip to Sofia for a UEFA Conference League match before this league fixture could affect them, leaving open the possibility of squad rotation.
Form and Line-up Lorient
In the previous round of Ligue 1, Lorient edged Paris 1:0 thanks to a second-half goal from Gaben Bernardo. The Breton side favour a pragmatic approach: their matches average just 2.0 goals in total, the lowest figure heading into this round. Alexandre Dujeux's team are only three points off the European places.
- Lorient have committed fewer than 11.5 fouls in each of their last 10 home matches in Ligue 1.
- There have been fewer than 3.5 offsides in each of Lorient's last 10 home matches in Ligue 1.
- Lorient have taken fewer than 5.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 home matches in Ligue 1.
Probable line-up (5-4-1): Yvon Mvogo, Montassar Talbi, Arsène Kouassi, Nathaniel Adjei, Demba Sylla, Souleymane Touré, Noah Cadiou, Jean-Victor Makengo, Alec Zhorzhen, Isak Jensen, Mamadou Koné
Absentees: Bandiougou Fadiga, Noah Mbamba (injured)
Form and Line-up Monaco
Monaco let a win slip away against Toulouse in their last Ligue 1 match: they led 2:0 at half-time, but conceded a penalty in the second half and allowed their opponents to equalise. Even so, the two dropped points did not cost Monaco top spot: they lead Lille and Rennes by one point. On Thursday, Filipe Luís's team beat local side CSKA Sofia 2:1 in Sofia in the opening round of the UEFA Conference League.
- Monaco's opponents have committed fewer than 13.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 away matches in Ligue 1.
- There have been over 2.5 goals in 8 of Monaco's last 10 away matches in Ligue 1.
- There have been over 7.5 shots on target in 8 of Monaco's last 10 away matches in Ligue 1.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Lukáš Hrádecký, Vanderson, Mohammed Salisu, Sadibou Sané, Flávio Nazinho, Denis Zakaria, Lamine Camara, Edan Diop, Alexandr Golovin, Mathys Detourbet, Matthis Abline
Absentees: Eric Dyer (injured), Paris Brunner (suspended)
The teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Lorient a 25.8% chance of winning, with odds of 3.70 and fair odds of 3.88, while the draw has a 27.7% chance, with odds of 3.45 and fair odds of 3.62. Monaco lead with a 46.5% chance of winning: their odds are 2.05 against fair odds of 2.15.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient win | 3.70 | 3.88 | 25.8% |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.62 | 27.7% |
| Monaco win | 2.05 | 2.15 | 46.5% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals is offered at 1.87 and Over 2.5 at 1.93, so the odds are almost level, with a slight preference for fewer goals. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 is 1.33 and Over 3.5 is 3.05, making a match with fewer than four goals the clear favourite.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.87 | 1.93 |
| 3.5 | 1.33 | 3.05 |
Handicap prediction
Lorient (-1.5) are offered at 6.50 and Monaco (-1.5) at 3.80. At the +1.5 handicap, Monaco (+1.5) are shorter at 1.06, compared with 1.22 for Lorient (+1.5). Lorient (-1) are 5.80 and Monaco (-1) are 2.95; at +1, the odds are 1.35 for Lorient (+1) and 1.09 for Monaco (+1). At a handicap of 0, Monaco (0) at 1.50 are favoured over Lorient (0) at 2.60.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 6.50 | -1.5 | 3.80 |
| 1.22 | 1.5 | 1.06 |
| 5.80 | -1 | 2.95 |
| 1.35 | 1 | 1.09 |
| 2.60 | 0 | 1.50 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is offered at 1.80, while No is available at 1.97. The odds slightly favour both teams finding the net; No means at least one of them will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.80 |
| No | 1.97 |
Double chance forecast
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Lorient — 1 goal; Monaco — 1.5 goals.
Lorient team total goals
For Lorient's team total, Under 0.5 is 2.65 and Over 0.5 is 1.45. At the 1-goal line, the odds are close: Under 1 is 1.78 and Over 1 is 1.98. At 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 is considerably shorter at 1.35, compared with 2.95 for Over 1.5.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.65 | 0.5 | 1.45 |
| 1.78 | 1 | 1.98 |
| 1.35 | 1.5 | 2.95 |
Monaco team total goals
For Monaco's team total, Under 0.5 is offered at 3.95 and Over 0.5 at 1.20. Over 1 at 1.40 is shorter than Under 1 at 2.75; at the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is 1.72 and Over 1.5 is 2.05. At 2 goals, Under 2 is available at 1.30 and Over 2 at 3.25.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.95 | 0.5 | 1.20 |
| 2.75 | 1 | 1.40 |
| 1.72 | 1.5 | 2.05 |
| 1.30 | 2 | 3.25 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Marc Bollengier (France)
Matches — 17 (Ligue 1, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 27;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.1;
Matches with a red card — 5 of 17;
Matches with a penalty — 7 of 17.
