Odds overview
The teams are almost level in the 1X2 market. A Lorient win is available at 2.60, a Toulouse win at 2.80 and the draw at 3.30. In the totals market, the bookmakers lean slightly more towards a low-scoring game: Under 2.5 goals is at 1.82 and Over at 1.98. The gap is also small on the Draw No Bet market: Lorient (0) is at 1.85 and Toulouse (0) at 1.95.
Why Lorient are favourites for the match
The favourites are only nominal here. Lorient are available at 2.60 to win, the draw is 3.30 and a Toulouse win is 2.80. The market therefore leans slightly towards the hosts, but there is no significant gap between the teams.
- Lorient returned from Lens with a 1:0 clean-sheet win. Mamadou Kone scored the only goal.
- Toulouse have taken one point from their opening three matches and sit 17th. Lorient have four points and are eighth.
Form and Line-up Lorient
Alexandre Dujeux took charge of Lorient in the summer, and their first matches under him have been far from spectacular. The Bretons' matches are currently averaging 1.33 goals, the lowest figure in Ligue 1.
Key numbers:
- In 9 of their last 10 home Ligue 1 matches, Lorient have taken no more than five corners.
- In 9 of their last 10 home Ligue 1 matches, Lorient have committed no more than 11 fouls.
- In 9 of Lorient's last 10 home Ligue 1 matches, the two teams have produced no more than nine shots on target between them.
Probable Lorient line-up (3-4-2-1): Yvon Mvogo, Demba Sylla, Montassar Talbi, Nathaniel Adjei, Panos Katseris, Noah Cadiou, Noah Mbamba, Arsene Kouassi, Gaby Bernardo, Jean-Victor Makengo, Mamadou Kone
Form and Line-up Toulouse
Toulouse's attack has been rather poor so far: 0.67 goals scored per game. By that measure, they are joint second from bottom in Ligue 1. The match against Lille showed that the chances are there, but no one is handing out goals for them.
Key numbers:
- In 8 of their last 10 away Ligue 1 matches, Toulouse have taken no more than five corners.
- In 9 of their last 10 away Ligue 1 matches, Toulouse have committed at least 13 fouls.
- At least two goals have been scored before half-time in Toulouse's last five away Ligue 1 matches.
Probable Toulouse line-up (4-2-3-1): Mathys Niflore, Rafik Messali, Mark McKenzie, Rasmus Nicolaisen, Krist Tape, Alexis Vossah, Cristian Casseres, Ylies Aradj, Thomas Jorgensen, Santiago Hidalgo, Jason Russell-Rowe
Guillaume Restes injured his thigh in the match against Lille and is currently listed among the unavailable players.
Team chances
It is very close here. A Lorient win is available at 2.60, which gives fair odds of 2.72 and a probability of 36.8%. The figures for a Toulouse win are 2.80 in the market, 2.93 fair odds and 34.2%. The draw at 3.30 becomes 3.45 and 29.0%. The hosts are ahead, but only just.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient win | 2.60 | 2.72 | 36.8% |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.45 | 29.0% |
| Toulouse win | 2.80 | 2.93 | 34.2% |
Total goals betting tip
Under 2.5 goals is at 1.82 and Over 2.5 goals at 1.98. The gap is already much more pronounced at the 3.5 line: Under is at 1.32 and Over at 3.10. The market clearly does not expect a high-scoring shootout from this pair.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.82 | 1.98 |
| 3.5 | 1.32 | 3.10 |
Handicap betting tip
Large negative handicaps are long here: Lorient (-1.5) is at 4.90 and Toulouse (-1.5) at 5.20. There is almost no difference with a +1.5 handicap: 1.11 for Lorient (+1.5) and 1.13 for Toulouse (+1.5). Lorient (-1) is at 4.10 and Toulouse (-1) at 4.40; Lorient (+1) is available at 1.16 and Toulouse (+1) at 1.18. On the Draw No Bet market, the hosts are again only just ahead: 1.85 versus 1.95.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.90 | -1.5 | 5.20 |
| 1.11 | 1.5 | 1.13 |
| 4.10 | -1 | 4.40 |
| 1.16 | 1 | 1.18 |
| 1.85 | 0 | 1.95 |
Both teams to score betting tip
Both teams to score - Yes is available at 1.75, while Both teams to score - No is at 2.00. The bookmaker has slightly more faith in both teams scoring, although the gap in the odds is not large enough to make that scenario obvious.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.75 |
| No | 2.00 |
Double chance betting tip
The shortest odds in the double chance market are for 12 at 1.35. 1X is available at 1.45 and X2 at 1.52. This market makes a draw look slightly less likely than either team winning.
| 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.45 | 1.35 | 1.52 |
Team total betting tip
The bookmakers have set the base line at one goal for both teams: Lorient at 1 and Toulouse at 1.
Lorient team total
For Lorient, Under 0.5 goals is at 3.30 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.30. At the line of 1, Under is at 2.30 and Over at 1.58; at 1.5, they are 1.55 and 2.40 respectively. The market considers one goal for the hosts a normal scenario, but two or more is a very different matter.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.30 | 0.5 | 1.30 |
| 2.30 | 1 | 1.58 |
| 1.55 | 1.5 | 2.40 |
Toulouse team total
For Toulouse, Under 0.5 goals is available at 3.10 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.32. At the line of 1, the odds are 2.10 for Under and 1.70 for Over, while at 1.5 they are 1.48 and 2.55. The market rates an away goal fairly confidently, but the odds are still considerably firmer against two goals.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.10 | 0.5 | 1.32 |
| 2.10 | 1 | 1.70 |
| 1.48 | 1.5 | 2.55 |
