The second leg of the 2024/25 UEFA Europa Conference League Round of 16 between Lugano (Switzerland) and Celje (Slovenia) will take place on March 13 at the Arena Thun. The first match ended 1-0 in favor of Celje. Lugano vs. Celje: prediction and statistics.
Lugano
The Swiss team suffered a 0-1 defeat in the first leg. This loss was the first for Mattia Croci-Torti's side in their last four Conference League matches (2 wins, 1 draw). Additionally, Lugano's goal-scoring streak in this tournament, which lasted six matches, was interrupted. To advance to the next round, the team needs to beat the Slovenians by at least two goals. It's worth noting that the club is in the top five of the 2024/25 Conference League for the number of "clean sheets" (3).
- The Swiss side conceded first in 4 of their last 5 matches in this European competition.
- At home in the Conference League, Lugano has not won 5 of their last 7 matches (2 draws, 3 losses).
- At least one opponent failed to score in 5 of Lugano's last 7 home games in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Lugano (3-4-3)
Amir Saipi – Antonios Papadopoulos, Lars Lukas Mai, Alban Heidari – Mattia Zanotti, Anto Grgic, Milton Valenzuela, Haj Mahmoud – Mattia Bottani, Renato Steffen, Georgios Koutsias.
Forwards Ignacio Aliseda and Shkelqim Vladi are injured. Defender Antonios Papadopoulos and forward Mattia Bottani are suspended.
Celje
With a win in the first leg, the Slovenians extended their unbeaten run in the Conference League to four matches (3 wins, 1 draw). To advance to the quarter-finals, Albert Riera's side only needs to avoid defeat in the second leg. If Celje loses by a minimal score difference, extra time will be played. It is noteworthy that two of their three losses in the group stage were by a two-goal margin.
- The club has scored in 9 of their last 10 Conference League games.
- The Slovenians have lost 5 of their last 6 away matches in this tournament (1 win).
- Celje conceded at least two goals in 5 of their last 7 Conference League matches.
Predicted lineup for Celje (4-3-3)
Ricardo Silva – Lukasz Bejger, Klemen Nemanič, Žan Karničnik, Juanjo Nieto – Mario Kvesić, Tamar Svetlin, Mark Zabukovnik – Logan Deloye-Chobe, Armandas Kučys, Svit Sešlar.
Defender Klemen Nemanič will miss the match due to an accumulation of yellow cards.
Match Prediction: Lugano vs. Celje
The Slovenians were able to capitalize on one of their few opportunities in the first match, after which Albert Riera's side ceded initiative to the opponent, defending their minimal advantage. It seems that in the return leg, Celje will focus on defense from the start. Considering that the Swiss have started experiencing scoring difficulties, we are likely to witness a low-scoring encounter.
Lugano has failed to score in 4 of their last 5 official matches. This is likely due to injuries to several attacking players. In addition to these lineup issues, one of the club's top scorers in this Conference League edition is also suspended.
Celje has regularly conceded in this Conference League, but the team has kept a clean sheet in their last two consecutive matches. However, the Slovenians themselves have not been prolific away from home in this tournament: the club has not scored more than one goal in 5 of their last 6 matches.
My prediction: Total under 3
