Luxembourg vs Bulgaria: prediction & betting odds 6 October 2026

Odds overview

Luxembourg are favourites: a home win is available at 1.89, compared with 3.60 for an away win, while the draw is quoted at 3.85. In the main 2.5-goal totals market, Under 2.5 at 1.59 is considerably more likely than Over 2.5 at 2.24. For the handicap (0), Luxembourg Draw No Bet at 1.43 is favoured over Bulgaria Draw No Bet at 2.63.

Why Luxembourg are favourites

The bookmakers favour the hosts: Luxembourg are 1.89 to win, the draw is available at 3.85, and Bulgaria are quoted at 3.60.

• In their meeting in this tournament on 26 September 2026, Luxembourg beat Bulgaria 2:1 away from home.
• Bulgaria are bottom of their UEFA Nations League group in fourth place, and suffered a heavy 0:3 defeat away to Iceland on 3 October 2026.

Form and Line-up Luxembourg

After beating Bulgaria, Luxembourg suffered two consecutive UEFA Nations League defeats: they lost 0:3 at home to Iceland on 29 September and 0:1 away to Estonia on 3 October.

At home, however, Luxembourg have limited their opponents' attacking activity: in each of their last 10 home matches in the tournament, their opponents have had no more than 13 shots, while 8 of those 10 matches have finished with under 3.5 goals.

• There have been under 9.5 shots on target in 8 of Luxembourg's last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
• Luxembourg have been caught offside over 1.5 times in 9 of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
• There have been over 23.5 fouls in 9 of Luxembourg's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.

Probable line-up (4-1-4-1): Anthony Moris, Florian Bohnert, Enes Mahmutovic, Vahid Selimovic, Dirk Carlson, Tomás Moreira, Omar Natami, Vincent Thill, Enzo Duarte dos Santos, Aiman Dardari, Jádson Viera.

Form and Line-up Bulgaria

Bulgaria are also struggling in attack: they drew 0:0 at home to Estonia on 29 September. Their away matches have consistently been low scoring: 9 of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches have featured under 3.5 goals, and the combined number of shots on target has not exceeded nine.

• There have been over 7.5 corners in 9 of Bulgaria's last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
• Bulgaria have committed over 11.5 fouls in 8 of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
• There have been over 3.5 yellow cards in Bulgaria's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.

Probable line-up (4-3-3): Daniel Naumov, Ivan Turitsov, Kristian Dimitrov, Stefan Velkov, Dimitar Velkovski, Andrian Kraev, Asen Chandarov, Ilia Gruev, Georgi Rusev, Lukas Petkov, Atanas Iliev.

The teams' chances

Luxembourg to win: average odds of 1.89, fair odds of 2.02 and a 49.6% probability. The draw is available at 3.85, with fair odds of 4.11 and a 24.4% probability; the corresponding figures for a Bulgaria win are 3.60, 3.84 and 26%.

Total goals prediction

At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 at 1.59 is favoured over Over 2.5 at 2.24. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is available at 2.05 and Over 2 at 1.71. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 is quoted at 1.19, compared with 4.05 for Over 3.5.

Handicap prediction

Luxembourg Draw No Bet (0) at 1.43 is rated considerably more likely than Bulgaria Draw No Bet (0) at 2.63.

Double chance forecast

Bookmaker	1X	12	X2
Bet365	9/25	9/25	1/2
888sport	33/100	2/5	53/100

Odds are current as of the material publication date

Team total goals prediction

For this match, bookmakers have set the following team goal totals: Luxembourg — 1.5 goals; Bulgaria — 0.5 goals.

Luxembourg team total goals

For Luxembourg's team total, Under 0.5 is available at 3.45 and Over 0.5 at 1.26; Under 1.5 is quoted at 1.60 compared with 2.22 for Over 1.5; Under 2.5 is 1.15 and Over 2.5 is 4.55.

Bulgaria team total goals

For Bulgaria's team total, Under 0.5 is available at 2.22 and Over 0.5 at 1.60; Under 1.5 is offered at 1.23 compared with 3.65 for Over 1.5; Under 2.5 is 1.03 and Over 2.5 is 7.90.

Who Will Referee the Match

Andris Treimanis (Latvia)

Matches — 12 (international fixtures, 2025/26–2026/27);

Average fouls per match — 26;

Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4;

Matches with a red card — 5 out of 12;

Matches with a penalty — 5 out of 12.