Odds overview
Luxembourg are favourites: they are available at 1.89 to win, compared with 3.60 for Bulgaria, while the draw is 3.85. In the main goals market, Under 2.5 at 1.59 is considered much more likely than Over 2.5 at 2.24. For a handicap of 0, Luxembourg (0) at 1.43 are favoured over Bulgaria (0) at 2.63.
Why Luxembourg are favourites
Bookmakers favour the hosts: Luxembourg are available at 1.89 to win, the draw is 3.85, and a Bulgaria win is 3.60.
- Luxembourg have already beaten Bulgaria 2:1 away from home in this edition of the competition, on 26 September 2026.
- Bulgaria are bottom of the UEFA Nations League group in fourth place and suffered a heavy 0:3 away defeat to Iceland on 3 October 2026.
Form and Line-up Luxembourg
After beating Bulgaria, Luxembourg lost two consecutive UEFA Nations League matches: they fell 0:3 at home to Iceland on 29 September, then lost 0:1 away to Estonia on 3 October.
At home, however, Luxembourg have restricted their opponents' attacking activity: in each of their last 10 home matches in the competition, their opponents have had no more than 13 shots, while 8 of those 10 matches have had fewer than 3.5 goals.
- There have been fewer than 9.5 shots on target in 8 of Luxembourg's last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
- Luxembourg have been caught offside more than 1.5 times in 9 of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
- There have been more than 23.5 fouls in 9 of Luxembourg's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Luxembourg line-up (4-1-4-1): Anthony Moris, Florian Bohnert, Enes Mahmutovic, Vahid Selimovic, Dirk Carlson, Tomás Moreira, Omar Natami, Vincent Thill, Enzo Duarte dos Santos, Aiman Dardari, Jayson Videira.
Form and Line-up Bulgaria
Bulgaria are also struggling in attack: they drew 0:0 at home to Estonia on 29 September. Their away matches have consistently been low-scoring: 9 of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches have had fewer than 3.5 goals, and the combined number of shots on target has not exceeded nine.
- There have been more than 7.5 corners in 9 of Bulgaria's last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
- Bulgaria have committed more than 11.5 fouls in 8 of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
- There have been more than 3.5 yellow cards in Bulgaria's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Bulgaria line-up (4-3-3): Daniel Naumov, Ivan Turitsov, Kristian Dimitrov, Stefan Velkov, Dimitar Velkovski, Andrian Kraev, Asen Chandarov, Ilia Gruev, Georgi Rusev, Lukas Petkov, Atanas Iliev.
The teams' chances
Luxembourg to win: average odds of 1.89, fair odds of 2.02 and a probability of 49.6%. The draw is offered at 3.85, with fair odds of 4.11 and a probability of 24.4%; the corresponding figures for a Bulgaria win are 3.60, 3.84 and 26%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luxembourg to win | 1.89 | 2.02 | 49.6% |
| Draw | 3.85 | 4.11 | 24.4% |
| Bulgaria to win | 3.60 | 3.84 | 26.0% |
Total goals prediction
For the 2.5-goal total, Under 2.5 at 1.59 is favoured over Over 2.5 at 2.24. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is available at 2.05 and Over 2 at 1.71. At 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 is 1.19, compared with 4.05 for Over 3.5.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.59 | 2.24 |
| 2 | 2.05 | 1.71 |
| 3.5 | 1.19 | 4.05 |
Handicap prediction
Luxembourg (0) at 1.43 are rated considerably more likely than Bulgaria (0) at 2.63.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.43 | 0 | 2.63 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
11/50
|
1/5
|
4/5
|
| 888sport |
1/4
|
3/10
|
3/4
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goals lines for this match: Luxembourg — 1.5 goals; Bulgaria — 0.5 goals.
Luxembourg team goals
Luxembourg team goals: Under 0.5 is 3.45 and Over 0.5 is 1.26; at 1.5, Under is 1.60 compared with 2.22 for Over; at 2.5, Under is 1.15 and Over is 4.55.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.45 | 0.5 | 1.26 |
| 1.60 | 1.5 | 2.22 |
| 1.15 | 2.5 | 4.55 |
Bulgaria team goals
Bulgaria team goals: Under 0.5 is 2.22 and Over 0.5 is 1.60; at 1.5, Under is offered at 1.23 compared with 3.65 for Over; at 2.5, Under is 1.03 and Over is 7.90.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.22 | 0.5 | 1.60 |
| 1.23 | 1.5 | 3.65 |
| 1.03 | 2.5 | 7.90 |
