Odds overview
Lyon are clear favourites: a home win is available at 1.53, while the draw is offered at 4.40 and an Auxerre win at 6.00. Over 2.5 goals at 1.72 looks preferable to Under 2.5 at 2.12; at the 3.5 line, by contrast, Under 3.5 at 1.45 is considerably shorter than Over 3.5 at 2.65. In the handicaps, Lyon (-1.5) at 2.40 is longer than Auxerre (+1.5) at 1.55, Lyon (-1) at 1.85 is slightly shorter than Auxerre (+1) at 1.95, while Lyon (0) at 1.18 is substantially lower than Auxerre (0) at 4.10.
Why Lyon are favourites for the match
Lyon to win is available at 1.53, the draw at 4.40 and an Auxerre victory at 6.00.
- Lyon have collected 4 points from two rounds and sit fourth in the table, while Auxerre have lost both matches and are bottom of Ligue 1 in 18th place.
- Auxerre's defence is extremely unstable: conceding 4.0 goals per match, they have the league's worst defensive record.
Form and Line-up Lyon
At the start of the season, Lyon recorded a 2:0 away win without conceding, then avoided defeat against Le Havre at home in Matchday 2 (1:1) thanks to a Loïs Openda goal in the 87th minute.
The team's defence is reliable: in the pre-match league snapshot, Lyon are conceding just 0.5 goals per game, placing them among the three hardest teams in the league to break down.
Key numbers:
- In 8 of their last 10 Ligue 1 home matches, Lyon's opponents have had no more than 5 shots on target.
- Lyon have had at least 4 shots on target in 8 of their last 10 Ligue 1 home matches.
- No more than 3 offsides have been recorded in 8 of Lyon's last 10 Ligue 1 home matches.
Probable Lyon line-up (4-3-3): Dominik Greif — Zachary Atekaame — Felix Bacher — Moussa Niakhate — Nicolas Tagliafico — Tyler Morton — Mads Bidstrup — Corentin Tolisso — Ernest Nuamah — Malick Fofana — Loïs Openda
Moussa Niakhate is doubtful due to an injury.
Form and Line-up Auxerre
Auxerre began the league campaign with two consecutive defeats: they lost 2:5 away, then were beaten 1:3 by Angers at home.
Despite scoring in each round, regular defensive lapses are not yet allowing the visitors to count on points against the favourites.
Key numbers:
- In 9 of their last 10 Ligue 1 away matches, Auxerre have had no more than 4 shots on target.
- Auxerre have attempted no more than 12 shots, including blocked attempts, in 9 of their last 10 Ligue 1 away matches.
- Auxerre have received at least 2 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 Ligue 1 away matches.
Probable Auxerre line-up (4-3-3): Mamadou Diop — Lamine Sy — Clément Akpa — Elikya Legros — Sinaly Diomandé — Arthur Piedfort — Naouirou Ahamada — Kevin Danois — Romain Faivre — Rémy Labeau-Lascary — Danny Namaso
Injured Bryan Okoh and Marvin Senaya will miss the match.
Team chances
A home win is available at 1.53; the fair odds are 1.60 with a probability of 62.4%. The draw is available at 4.40, with fair odds of 4.61 and a probability of 21.7%, while an away win is at 6.00, with fair odds of 6.29 and a probability of 15.9%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon win | 1.53 | 1.60 | 62.4% |
| Draw | 4.40 | 4.61 | 21.7% |
| Auxerre win | 6.00 | 6.29 | 15.9% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals is available at 2.12 and Over 2.5 at 1.72, so the higher-scoring scenario is rated more highly. At the 3.5 line, Under 3.5 at 1.45 is considerably preferable to Over 3.5 at 2.65.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.12 | 1.72 |
| 3.5 | 1.45 | 2.65 |
Handicap prediction
Lyon (-1.5) is offered at 2.40, while Auxerre (+1.5) is at 1.55. The odds for Lyon (-1) at 1.85 and Auxerre (+1) at 1.95 are close. Lyon (0) at 1.18 is substantially shorter than Auxerre (0) at 4.10.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.40 | -1.5 | — |
| — | 1.5 | 1.55 |
| 1.85 | -1 | — |
| — | 1 | 1.95 |
| 1.18 | 0 | 4.10 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - Yes is available at 1.80 and Both teams to score - No at 1.95: the market slightly more often expects both teams to score, although the option in which at least one team fails to score is rated similarly.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.80 |
| No | 1.95 |
Double chance prediction
1X at 1.15 is the most likely double chance, while 12 is offered at 1.23. X2 at 2.50 is considerably less likely.
| 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.15 | 1.23 | 2.50 |
Team total prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Lyon — 2 goals, Auxerre — 0.5 goals.
Lyon team total
Lyon team total: Under 0.5 goals at 6.70 is considerably longer than Over 0.5 goals at 1.06. At the 1.5 line, Under is available at 2.35 and Over at 1.57; at 2, Under at 1.70 is slightly shorter than Over at 2.08. For the 2.5 line, Under is offered at 1.40 and Over at 2.75.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 6.70 | 0.5 | 1.06 |
| 2.35 | 1.5 | 1.57 |
| 1.70 | 2 | 2.08 |
| 1.40 | 2.5 | 2.75 |
Auxerre team total
Auxerre team total: Under 0.5 goals at 2.20 is longer than Over 0.5 goals at 1.62. At the 1 line, Under at 1.50 is preferable to Over at 2.50, while at 1.5, Under at 1.25 is substantially shorter than Over at 3.60.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.20 | 0.5 | 1.62 |
| 1.50 | 1 | 2.50 |
| 1.25 | 1.5 | 3.60 |
Who will referee the match
Ruddy Buquet (France)
Matches – 18 (Ligue 1, 2025/26–2026/27);
Fouls per match, average – 23;
Yellow cards per match, average (including second yellows) – 2.9;
Matches with a red card – 3 out of 18;
Matches with penalties – 4 out of 18.
