Odds overview
Lyon are clear favourites: a home win is available at around 1.67, while a draw and a Nice win are quoted at 4.15 and 4.80. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.65 is shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.20. For the -1.5 handicap, Lyon at 2.65 are markedly favoured over Nice at 8.50.
Why Lyon are favourites
The bookmakers favour the hosts: Lyon are 1.67 to win, a draw is 4.15, and a Nice win is offered at 4.80.
- Lyon have established themselves near the top of Ligue 1: after six rounds, they are fourth with 11 points and a goal difference of 11:4.
- Nice have struggled to create chances (their xG of 1.13 is the second-lowest in the league) and regularly drop points away from home, having failed to win 9 of their last 10 Ligue 1 away matches.
Form and Line-up Lyon
In their last Ligue 1 match, Lyon lost 1:2 away to Lens, pulling one goal back only after a Lens player was sent off. At home, Lyon play an assertive attacking game: they registered more than 3.5 shots on target in 9 of their last 10 home league matches, while the total number of corners exceeded 8.5.
Meanwhile, the hosts' defence remains one of the league's most reliable: Lyon's average of 0.67 goals conceded per game is joint lowest in Ligue 1.
- There were fewer than 2.5 offsides in 8 of Lyon's last 10 Ligue 1 home matches.
- Lyon's opponents registered fewer than 5.5 shots on target in 8 of Lyon's last 10 home league matches.
- There were more than 8.5 corners in all 3 of Lyon's home matches in the 2026/27 Ligue 1 season.
Probable Lyon line-up (4-3-1-2): Dominik Greif, Zachary Athekame, Abner, Felix Bacher, Ruben Kluivert, Mads Bidstrup, Corentin Tolisso, Tyler Morton, Pavel Sulc, Ernest Nuamah, Keito Nakamura.
Loïs Openda and Nicolás Tagliafico will miss the match through injury.
Form and Line-up Nice
Nice came into this match after a 2:1 home win over Strasbourg. They favour a cautious approach in Ligue 1 away matches: in 9 of their last 10 away league games, they scored fewer than 1.5 goals and took fewer than 12.5 shots.
- Fewer than 3.5 goals were scored in 9 of Nice's last 10 Ligue 1 away matches.
- Nice committed fewer than 13.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 Ligue 1 away matches.
- Nice registered fewer than 4.5 shots on target in 8 of their last 10 away league matches.
Probable Nice line-up (5-2-3): Yehvann Diouf, Jonathan Clauss, Mohamed Abdelmonem, Youssouf Ndayishimiye, Junior Mandza, Niels Nkounkou, Djibril Coulibaly, Axel Witsel, Gauthier Hein, Elye Wahi, Mohamed Amoura.
Laurent Aberzhel, Moïse Bombito and Antoine Mendy are unavailable through injury.
The teams' chances
A Lyon win is offered at 1.67, with fair odds of 1.75 and a probability of 57.1%. A draw is quoted at 4.15, with fair odds of 4.35 and a probability of 23%; a Nice win is 4.80, with fair odds of 5.03 and a probability of 19.9%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon win | 1.67 | 1.75 | 57.1% |
| Draw | 4.15 | 4.35 | 23.0% |
| Nice win | 4.80 | 5.03 | 19.9% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is 2.20 and Over 2.5 is 1.65, so the market expects at least three goals. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 at 1.50 is considerably shorter than Over 3.5 at 2.50.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.20 | 1.65 |
| 3.5 | 1.50 | 2.50 |
Handicap prediction
Lyon (-1.5) are 2.65, compared with 8.50 for Nice (-1.5). At the +1.5 handicap line, Lyon (+1.5) are 1.04 and Nice (+1.5) are 1.42. Lyon (-1) at 2.12 are shorter than Nice (-1) at 7.10; at the +1 line, Lyon (+1) are 1.05 and Nice (+1) are 1.72. At the zero handicap line, Lyon (0) are 1.27 and Nice (0) are 3.40.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.65 | -1.5 | 8.50 |
| 1.04 | 1.5 | 1.42 |
| 2.12 | -1 | 7.10 |
| 1.05 | 1 | 1.72 |
| 1.27 | 0 | 3.40 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is offered at 1.65, while Both teams to score — No, meaning at least one team will fail to score, is 2.15.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.65 |
| No | 2.15 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
9/50
|
11/50
|
23/20
|
| 888sport |
9/50
|
1/4
|
23/20
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team goal totals: Lyon — 1.5 goals; Nice — 1 goal.
Lyon team total goals
Lyon team total goals: Under 0.5 is 6.10, compared with 1.08 for Over 0.5; Under 1 is 4.10 and Over 1 is 1.18. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is 2.15 and Over 1.5 is 1.65; at the 2-goal line, Under 2 is 1.62 and Over 2 is 2.20.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 6.10 | 0.5 | 1.08 |
| 4.10 | 1 | 1.18 |
| 2.15 | 1.5 | 1.65 |
| 1.62 | 2 | 2.20 |
Nice team total goals
Nice team total goals: Under 0.5 is quoted at 2.55 and Over 0.5 at 1.48. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is 1.72 compared with 2.05 for Over 1; at the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 at 1.30 is markedly shorter than Over 1.5 at 3.15.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.55 | 0.5 | 1.48 |
| 1.72 | 1 | 2.05 |
| 1.30 | 1.5 | 3.15 |
Who Will Referee the Match
François Letexier (France)
Matches — 21 (Ligue 1, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 23;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.2;
Matches with a red card — 7 out of 21;
Matches with a penalty — 6 out of 21.
