Odds overview
Manchester City to win at 1.13 are clear favourites over the draw at 8.60 and Norwich City to win at 15.00. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 at 1.27 is markedly favoured over Under 2.5 at 3.35.
Why Manchester City are favourites for the match
Manchester City to win is available at 1.13, the draw at 8.60 and Norwich City to win at 15.00.
- Manchester City have won in normal time in 9 of their 10 home EFL Cup matches.
- The home side's defence reliably restricts visitors in home cup matches, allowing no more than one goal in 9 of their last 10 games.
Form and Line-up Manchester City
In the recent derby on 13 September, Manchester City won 1:0 away to Manchester United thanks to an Erling Haaland goal. After Phil Foden was sent off in the 23rd minute, the team dropped deeper and denied their opponents space for quick attacks.
At home in the EFL Cup, the team control games confidently: Manchester City have taken at least 5 corners in each of their last 10 matches in the competition, while opponents have had fewer than 12.5 shots in those same 10 games.
- Manchester City have had more than 12.5 shots in 10 home EFL Cup matches.
- Manchester City have scored at least two goals in 8 of their 10 home EFL Cup games.
- Fewer than 3.5 goals have been scored in 9 of Manchester City's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable Manchester City line-up (4-2-3-1): Gianluigi Donnarumma, Matheus Nunes, Ruben Dias, Marc Guehi, Josko Gvardiol, Enzo Fernandez, Elliot Anderson, Phil Foden, Rayan Cherki, Antoine Semenyo, Erling Haaland.
Jeremy Doku is doubtful for the match, while Nico O'Reilly was available for selection for the previous game.
Form and Line-up Norwich City
Norwich lost 3:4 away to Middlesbrough on 12 September, losing control of the game in the first half, but had previously beaten Birmingham (2:1) and Sheffield United (3:1).
The team's EFL Cup matches tend to have high totals: at least three goals were scored in 8 of their last 10 games. Norwich's away cup ties also often feature many offsides — the two teams have been caught offside a combined three or more times in 8 of 10 matches.
- At least 8 shots on target have been recorded in 9 of Norwich's 10 home EFL Cup matches.
- Norwich's opponents have received no more than two yellow cards in 9 of 10 EFL Cup matches.
- Norwich City's opponents have scored fewer than 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable line-up: V. Kovacevic, K. Fisher, R. McConville, J. Cordoba, B. Chrisene, K. McLean, P. Mattsson, A. Brooks, A. Ben Slimane, A. Musaba, M. Toure.
Team chances
Manchester City to win: odds of 1.13, fair odds of 1.21 and an 82.9% probability. The figures for the draw are 8.60, 9.18 and 10.9%, while for Norwich City to win they are 15.00, 16.02 and 6.2%: the market clearly favours the home side.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City to win | 1.13 | 1.21 | 82.9% |
| Draw | 8.60 | 9.18 | 10.9% |
| Norwich City to win | 15.00 | 16.02 | 6.2% |
Total goals prediction
Over 2.5 is available at 1.27 compared with 3.35 for Under 2.5, while Over 2 is at 1.09 against 5.70 for Under 2. At the 3.5 line, the odds are closer: Under 3.5 is 2.03 and Over 3.5 is 1.72.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 3.35 | 1.27 |
| 2 | 5.70 | 1.09 |
| 3.5 | 2.03 | 1.72 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
3/100
|
2/25
|
9/2
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Manchester City — 3 goals, Norwich City — 0.5 goals.
Manchester City team total
Manchester City team total: Under 2.5 at 2.39 has longer odds than Over 2.5 at 1.52; at the 3 line, Under 3 is 1.90 and Over 3 is 1.82. At the 3.5 line, Under 3.5 at 1.57 is favoured over Over 3.5 at 2.28.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.39 | 2.5 | 1.52 |
| 1.90 | 3 | 1.82 |
| 1.57 | 3.5 | 2.28 |
Norwich City team total
Norwich's team total: at the 0.5 line, the odds are almost equal — Under 0.5 at 1.85 and Over 0.5 at 1.89. Under 1.5 at 1.12 is markedly shorter than Over 1.5 at 5.00; Over 2.5 is available at 9.50.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.85 | 0.5 | 1.89 |
| 1.12 | 1.5 | 5.00 |
| 2.5 | 9.50 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Ruebyn Ricardo (England)
Matches — 25 (the Championship and English cups, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 23;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows — 4.4;
Matches with red cards — 4 of 25;
Matches with penalties — 2 of 25.
