Odds overview
Olympique de Marseille are favourites at around 1.57 to win, while the draw is 4.70 and a Le Havre win is 5.10. In the main goals market, Over 2.5 at 1.55 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 at 2.35. Olympique de Marseille on a handicap of 0 are much shorter at 1.23 than Le Havre on a handicap of 0 at 3.70.
Why Olympique de Marseille are match favourites
Bookmakers favour the home side: an Olympique de Marseille win is offered at 1.57, compared with 4.70 for a draw and 5.10 for a Le Havre win.
- Olympique de Marseille have the edge in this fixture: the home side have won all six of the most recent meetings with Le Havre.
- Le Havre have struggled to pick up points away from home, failing to win nine of their last 10 away league matches.
Form and Line-up Olympique de Marseille
Olympique de Marseille come into this round after an emphatic 5:2 away win over Angers. The hosts have consistently shown their attacking strength, averaging 2 goals per game and ranking second in Ligue 1 for goals scored.
- Over 2.5 goals has landed in eight of Olympique de Marseille's last 10 home matches in Ligue 1.
- Olympique de Marseille's opponents have committed fewer than 12.5 fouls in nine of their last 10 home league matches.
- There have been over 2.5 yellow cards in nine of Olympique de Marseille's last 10 home matches in Ligue 1.
Probable Olympique de Marseille line-up (4-2-3-1): Jeffrey de Lange, Timothy Weah, CJ Egan-Riley, Geoffrey Kondogbia, Emerson, Tochukwu Nnadi, Nouhoum Kamissoko, Amine Harit, Himad Abdelli, Igor Paixão, Amine Gouiri.
Form and Line-up Le Havre
Le Havre's difficult run continues: their 1:3 defeat to Auxerre was their fifth loss in seven league rounds. The visitors have been unconvincing in attack — averaging 0.71 goals per match, they rank last in Ligue 1 for goals scored.
Head coach Didier Digard openly criticised his team's attitude after the previous match and acknowledged the opposition's superiority.
- Under 2.5 goals has landed in eight of Le Havre's last 10 away matches in Ligue 1.
- Le Havre have committed more than 11.5 fouls in nine of their last 10 away league matches.
- Le Havre's opponents have registered fewer than 5.5 shots on target in nine of their last 10 away matches in Ligue 1.
Probable Le Havre line-up (4-3-3): Gauthier Gallon, Djibril Ouziad, Junior Mwanga, Ahmed Touba, Mouhamad N'Diaye, Rassoul Ndiaye, Simon Ebonog, Amir Richardson, Sota Nakamura, Josh Maja, Mbwana Samatta.
The teams' chances
An Olympique de Marseille win is quoted at 1.57, with fair odds of 1.64 and a 60.9% probability. The draw is offered at 4.70, with fair odds of 4.92 and a 20.3% probability; the corresponding figures for a Le Havre win are 5.10, 5.33 and 18.7%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 1.57 | 1.64 | 60.9% |
| Draw | 4.70 | 4.92 | 20.3% |
| Le Havre win | 5.10 | 5.33 | 18.7% |
Total goals prediction
Over 2.5 goals is offered at 1.55, compared with 2.35 for Under 2.5, suggesting an expectation of at least three goals. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 is favoured at 1.60, while Over 3.5 is quoted at 2.35.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.35 | 1.55 |
| 3.5 | 1.60 | 2.35 |
Handicap betting prediction
Olympique de Marseille (-1.5) at 2.40 are considerably shorter than Le Havre (-1.5) at 7.90. At the +1.5 handicap line, Olympique de Marseille (+1.5) are offered at 1.05, compared with 1.55 for Le Havre (+1.5). Olympique de Marseille (-1) are quoted at 1.90 and Le Havre (-1) at 6.80; on the +1 line, the relationship is reversed: 1.06 for Olympique de Marseille (+1) and 1.90 for Le Havre (+1). Olympique de Marseille on a handicap of 0 are much shorter at 1.23 than Le Havre on a handicap of 0 at 3.70.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.40 | -1.5 | 7.90 |
| 1.05 | 1.5 | 1.55 |
| 1.90 | -1 | 6.80 |
| 1.06 | 1 | 1.90 |
| 1.23 | 0 | 3.70 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – Yes at 1.65 is favoured over Both teams to score – No at 2.20; the latter means that at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.65 |
| No | 2.20 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
17/100
|
9/50
|
13/10
|
| 888sport |
17/100
|
11/50
|
13/10
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals totals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goals totals for this match: 2 goals for Olympique de Marseille and 1 goal for Le Havre.
Olympique de Marseille team goals total
For Olympique de Marseille's team goals total, Over 0.5 at 1.06 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 at 6.90. At the 1.5-goal line, Over 1.5 is offered at 1.55, compared with 2.35 for Under 1.5; at the 2-goal line, Under 2 at 1.80 is slightly favoured over Over 2 at 1.95. At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is quoted at 1.47 and Over 2.5 at 2.60.
| Under | Team goals total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 6.90 | 0.5 | 1.06 |
| 2.35 | 1.5 | 1.55 |
| 1.80 | 2 | 1.95 |
| 1.47 | 2.5 | 2.60 |
Le Havre team goals total
For Le Havre's team goals total, Over 0.5 at 1.50 is favoured over Under 0.5 at 2.50. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 at 1.70 is shorter than Over 1 at 2.10; at the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is 1.33, compared with 3.05 for Over 1.5.
| Under | Team goals total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.50 | 0.5 | 1.50 |
| 1.70 | 1 | 2.10 |
| 1.33 | 1.5 | 3.05 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Clément Turpin (France)
Matches — 20 (Ligue 1, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.1;
Matches with a red card — 3 out of 20;
Matches with a penalty — 7 out of 20.
