Odds overview
Olympique de Marseille to win is available at around 1.90, while the draw is 4.05 and Toulouse to win is 3.60. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.55 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.40. Olympique de Marseille Draw No Bet is available at 1.45, while Toulouse Draw No Bet is 2.65.
Why Olympique de Marseille are favourites
Olympique de Marseille are the bookmakers' favourites: the home win is available at 1.90, a Toulouse win at 3.60 and the draw at 4.05.
- Olympique de Marseille regularly get a positive result against Toulouse: they have avoided defeat in all of their last 10 meetings.
- Toulouse have also proved hard to beat in the league: the Occitan club have avoided defeat in 8 of their last 10 Ligue 1 matches.
Form and Line-up Olympique de Marseille
In the previous round, Olympique de Marseille won a high-scoring home match against Le Havre 4:3. They were fortunate that the referee did not award the visitors a penalty in second-half stoppage time. Before that, on 22 October, Marseille lost 0:1 away to Sturm Graz in the UEFA Europa League. More importantly, they thrashed Angers 5:2 away in the seventh round. Marseille can rely on Amine Gouiri in attack: he has scored five goals and provided two assists in 8 Ligue 1 matches this season.
- There were more than 5.5 shots on target in 9 of Olympique de Marseille's last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Olympique de Marseille had more than 11.5 shots in 9 of their last 10 home matches in Ligue 1.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Jeffrey de Lange, Timothy Weah, Conrad Egan-Riley, Nayef Aguerd, Emerson, Tochukwu Nnadi, Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, Amine Harit, Himad Abdelli, Igor Paixão, Amine Gouiri
Unavailable: Derek Cornelius (injured)
Form and Line-up Toulouse
Last Sunday, Toulouse played out a goalless draw with Troyes — 0:0. Before that, on 16 October, they won convincingly away to Le Mans (3:0). They last conceded on 10 October in a 2:2 away draw with Monaco in Ligue 1. Toulouse's main attacking threat is Casper Tengstedt, with five goals and one assist in six Ligue 1 appearances. Cristian Cásseres stands out for his playmaking, with five assists in eight matches in the competition.
- There were more than 5.5 shots on target in 8 of Toulouse's last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Toulouse committed more than 11.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 away matches in Ligue 1.
Probable line-up (4-4-2): Guillaume Restes, Rafik Messali, Rasmus Nicolaisen, Mark McKenzie, Christ Tapé, Aron Dønnum, Niko Sigur, Cristian Cásseres, Thomas Jørgensen, Casper Tengstedt, Jacen Russell-Rowe
Unavailable: Sion Oppong (injured)
The teams' chances
Olympique de Marseille to win is offered at 1.90, with fair odds of 2.00 and a probability of 50.1%. The draw is available at 4.05, with fair odds of 4.26 and a probability of 23.5%; the corresponding figures for Toulouse to win are 3.60, 3.78 and 26.4%.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille to win | 1.90 | 2.00 | 50.1% |
| Draw | 4.05 | 4.26 | 23.5% |
| Toulouse to win | 3.60 | 3.78 | 26.4% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals is available at 2.40 and Over 2.5 goals at 1.55. At the 3.5-goal line, the odds favour the opposite side: Under 3.5 goals is 1.60 and Over 3.5 goals is 2.30.
| Goals line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.40 | 1.55 |
| 3.5 | 1.60 | 2.30 |
Handicap prediction
Olympique de Marseille (-1.5) are available at 2.85 and Toulouse (-1.5) at 6.50. At the 1.5 handicap line, Olympique de Marseille (+1.5) are available at 1.06 and Toulouse (+1.5) at 1.35; at the 1-goal line, the respective odds are 1.09 and 1.55. For a zero handicap, Olympique de Marseille (0) are 1.45 and Toulouse (0) are 2.65.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.85 | -1.5 | 6.50 |
| 1.06 | 1.5 | 1.35 |
| 2.45 | -1 | 5.80 |
| 1.09 | 1 | 1.55 |
| 1.45 | 0 | 2.65 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is offered at 1.50, while Both teams to score — No, meaning at least one team will fail to score, is available at 2.45.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.50 |
| No | 2.45 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
29/100
|
11/50
|
83/100
|
| 888sport |
1/4
|
1/4
|
91/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team goals lines: Olympique de Marseille — 1.5 goals; Toulouse — 1 goal.
Olympique de Marseille team total goals
For Olympique de Marseille, Under 0.5 goals is available at 5.20 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.11; Under 1 goal is 3.60 and Over 1 goal is 1.25. At the 1.5-goal line, the odds are 2.15 for Under and 1.65 for Over; at the 2-goal line, they are 1.60 and 2.25 respectively.
| Under | Team total goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.20 | 0.5 | 1.11 |
| 3.60 | 1 | 1.25 |
| 2.15 | 1.5 | 1.65 |
| 1.60 | 2 | 2.25 |
Toulouse team total goals
For Toulouse, Under 0.5 goals is offered at 3.25 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.30. At the 1-goal line, Under is available at 2.05 and Over at 1.72; at the 1.5-goal line, the respective odds are 1.45 and 2.60.
| Under | Team total goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.25 | 0.5 | 1.30 |
| 2.05 | 1 | 1.72 |
| 1.45 | 1.5 | 2.60 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Hakim Ben El Hadj (France)
Matches — 15 (Ligue 1, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.8;
Matches with a red card — 5 out of 15;
Matches with a penalty — 5 out of 15.
