Odds overview
Inter are clear favourites at 1.95, while an AC Milan win and a draw are available at around 3.65 and 3.80 respectively. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.63 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.25. Inter Draw No Bet (0) at 1.47 is considered more likely than AC Milan Draw No Bet (0) at 2.60.
Why Inter are favourites
Bookmakers favour Inter in the Milan derby: the nominal away side are available at 1.95 to win, compared with 3.65 for AC Milan and 3.80 for the draw.
- Inter have been collecting points consistently in the league, going unbeaten in their last 10 Serie A matches.
- AC Milan have slipped up more often: they have avoided defeat in 7 of their last 10 matches in all official competitions, losing three.
Form and Line-up AC Milan
In the previous round on 28 October, AC Milan lost 2:4 at home to Bologna, having beaten Udinese 2:0 away on 25 October.
The Rossoneri's matches regularly produce goals: Over 1.5 goals has landed in their last 10 matches in all official competitions.
- AC Milan scored fewer than 3.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 matches in all official competitions.
- AC Milan took fewer than 5.5 corners in their last 10 home matches in Serie A.
Probable line-up: Mike Maignan, Fikayo Tomori, Koni De Winter, Strahinja Pavlović, Pervis Estupiñán, Yunus Musah, Ardon Jashari, Omari Hutchinson, Alphadjo Cissè, Davide Bartesaghi, Gonçalo Ramos.
Alexis Saelemaekers, Mario Gila, Diego Moreira, Adrien Rabiot, Matteo Gabbia and Samuel Chukwueze will miss the match through injury.
Form and Line-up Inter
On 28 October, Inter beat Venezia 2:0 away, extending their winning run after a 2:1 home victory over Fiorentina on 25 October.
The Nerazzurri have consistently broken down opposing defences, scoring at least once in their last 10 matches in all official competitions.
- Inter avoided defeat in 9 of their last 10 away matches in Serie A.
- Inter's opponents scored fewer than 3.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 matches in all official competitions.
Probable line-up: Ivan Provedel, Yann Bisseck, Alessandro Bastoni, Carlos Augusto, Andy Diouf, Petar Sučić, Aleksandar Stanković, Piotr Zieliński, Federico Dimarco, Ange-Yoan Bonny, Marcus Thuram.
The visitors' injured players are Benjamin Pavard, Curtis Jones, Lautaro Martínez, Luis Henrique and John Stones.
The teams' chances
An AC Milan win has average odds of 3.65, fair odds of 3.83 and a probability of 26.1%. The draw averages 3.80, with fair odds of 3.99 and a probability of 25.1%. For an Inter win, the corresponding figures are 1.95, 2.05 and 48.8% — the highest estimated probability of the three outcomes.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan to win | 3.65 | 3.83 | 26.1% |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.99 | 25.1% |
| Inter to win | 1.95 | 2.05 | 48.8% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals is available at 2.25 and Over 2.5 goals at 1.63. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals is quoted at 1.52 and Over 3.5 goals at 2.45: the market considers a lower total more likely.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.25 | 1.63 |
| 3.5 | 1.52 | 2.45 |
Handicap prediction
AC Milan (-1.5) are offered at 6.20 and Inter (-1.5) at 3.15. For the +1.5 handicap, AC Milan (+1.5) are available at 1.30 and Inter (+1.5) at 1.07. On the -1 handicap, AC Milan (-1) are offered at 5.50 and Inter (-1) at 2.65; on the +1 handicap, AC Milan (+1) are available at 1.50 and Inter (+1) at 1.10. For Draw No Bet (0), AC Milan are quoted at 2.60 and Inter at 1.47.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 6.20 | -1.5 | 3.15 |
| 1.30 | 1.5 | 1.07 |
| 5.50 | -1 | 2.65 |
| 1.50 | 1 | 1.10 |
| 2.60 | 0 | 1.47 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is quoted at 1.57, while Both teams to score — No is quoted at 2.35. The shorter odds for Yes indicate that both sides scoring is considered more likely; No means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.57 |
| No | 2.35 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
4/5
|
29/100
|
29/100
|
| 888sport |
3/4
|
29/100
|
3/10
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal lines for this match: AC Milan — 1 goal; Inter — 1.5 goals.
AC Milan team goals
For AC Milan, Under 0.5 goals is quoted at 3.00 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.35. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is available at 2.10 and Over 1 at 1.70; at the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is offered at 1.45 and Over 1.5 at 2.60.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.00 | 0.5 | 1.35 |
| 2.10 | 1 | 1.70 |
| 1.45 | 1.5 | 2.60 |
Inter team goals
For Inter, Under 0.5 goals is offered at 5.00 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.12. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 and Over 1 are available at 3.45 and 1.25 respectively; at the 1.5-goal line, they are 1.95 and 1.80. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is quoted at 1.50 and Over 2 at 2.50.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.00 | 0.5 | 1.12 |
| 3.45 | 1 | 1.25 |
| 1.95 | 1.5 | 1.80 |
| 1.50 | 2 | 2.50 |
